Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos Prediction & Betting Pick

NFLWeek 6 — Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos Estimated Handle N/A — October 15, 2026

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

Type: Regular Season — Thursday Night Football Kick-off: 5:15 PM PDT / 8:15 PM EDT / 6:15 PM MDT Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado — Open Air Weather: Mostly clear, mid-to-upper 40s°F at kickoff, north wind 5–7 mph becoming calm. Daytime gusts up to 28 mph expected to subside before kickoff. TV Coverage: Amazon Prime Video

STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

Seattle Seahawks — Sam Darnold: 222.2 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

Denver Broncos — Bo Nix: 207.8 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

TQBS comparison: N/A — passing touchdown and interception projections are not ratified under P-1/P-2.

2026 QB metrics:

• Sam Darnold: 755 passing yards | 7 TD | 5 INT | 5.72 ANY/A | −0.142 EPA/dropback
• Bo Nix: 942 passing yards | 6 TD | 3 INT | 5.35 ANY/A | −0.053 EPA/dropback

Darnold’s projected passing yards are 6.9% higher than Nix’s.

TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Seattle Seahawks: 26.8 PTS/G | Net Offensive Yards 328.0/G | Rush Yards Allowed 100.4/G | Projected POS N/A | Opp Pass Yards 166.8/G (gross) | Opp Rush Yards 100.4/G | Pace 62.90 projected plays | True Team Stat N/A

Denver Broncos: 19.4 PTS/G | Net Offensive Yards 269.0/G | Rush Yards Allowed 145.2/G | Projected POS N/A | Opp Pass Yards 220.4/G (gross) | Opp Rush Yards 145.2/G | Pace 59.00 projected plays | True Team Stat N/A

TTS comparison: N/A — no ratified True Team Stat calculation supplied.

Defensive passing efficiency:

• Seattle: 5.45 gross passing yards allowed per opponent attempt.
• Denver: 6.68 gross passing yards allowed per opponent attempt.

Projected offensive volume:

• Seattle: 30.54 pass attempts | 30.32 rush attempts | 2.04 sacks
• Denver: 33.22 pass attempts | 24.54 rush attempts | 1.24 sacks

PREVIOUS GAMES:

Seattle Seahawks:

• 10/11/26 — L 29-32 vs San Francisco — Total 61 — Over
• 10/04/26 — W 30-23 vs LA Chargers — Total 53 — Over
• 09/27/26 — L 31-33 @ Washington — Total 64 — Over
• 09/20/26 — W 31-7 @ Arizona — Total 38 — Under
• 09/09/26 — W 13-10 vs New England — Total 23 — Under

Denver Broncos:

• 10/11/26 — W 23-17 @ LA Chargers — Total 40 — Under
• 10/04/26 — L 14-24 @ San Francisco — Total 38 — Under
• 09/27/26 — W 30-26 vs LA Rams — Total 56 — Over
• 09/20/26 — W 20-13 vs Jacksonville — Total 33 — Under
• 09/14/26 — L 10-31 @ Kansas City — Total 41 — Under

NFLWeek 6 — Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos Estimated Handle N/A — October 15, 2026

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

Type: Regular Season — Thursday Night Football Kick-off: 5:15 PM PDT / 8:15 PM EDT / 6:15 PM MDT Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado — Open Air Weather: Mostly clear, mid-to-upper 40s°F at kickoff, north wind 5–7 mph becoming calm. Daytime gusts up to 28 mph expected to subside before kickoff. TV Coverage: Amazon Prime Video

STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

Seattle Seahawks — Sam Darnold: 222.2 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

Denver Broncos — Bo Nix: 207.8 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

TQBS comparison: N/A — passing touchdown and interception projections are not ratified under P-1/P-2.

2026 QB metrics:

• Sam Darnold: 755 passing yards | 7 TD | 5 INT | 5.72 ANY/A | −0.142 EPA/dropback
• Bo Nix: 942 passing yards | 6 TD | 3 INT | 5.35 ANY/A | −0.053 EPA/dropback

Darnold’s projected passing yards are 6.9% higher than Nix’s.

TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Seattle Seahawks: 26.8 PTS/G | Net Offensive Yards 328.0/G | Rush Yards Allowed 100.4/G | Projected POS N/A | Opp Pass Yards 166.8/G (gross) | Opp Rush Yards 100.4/G | Pace 62.90 projected plays | True Team Stat N/A

Denver Broncos: 19.4 PTS/G | Net Offensive Yards 269.0/G | Rush Yards Allowed 145.2/G | Projected POS N/A | Opp Pass Yards 220.4/G (gross) | Opp Rush Yards 145.2/G | Pace 59.00 projected plays | True Team Stat N/A

TTS comparison: N/A — no ratified True Team Stat calculation supplied.

Defensive passing efficiency:

• Seattle: 5.45 gross passing yards allowed per opponent attempt.
• Denver: 6.68 gross passing yards allowed per opponent attempt.

Projected offensive volume:

• Seattle: 30.54 pass attempts | 30.32 rush attempts | 2.04 sacks
• Denver: 33.22 pass attempts | 24.54 rush attempts | 1.24 sacks

PREVIOUS GAMES:

Seattle Seahawks:

• 10/11/26 — L 29-32 vs San Francisco — Total 61 — Over
• 10/04/26 — W 30-23 vs LA Chargers — Total 53 — Over
• 09/27/26 — L 31-33 @ Washington — Total 64 — Over
• 09/20/26 — W 31-7 @ Arizona — Total 38 — Under
• 09/09/26 — W 13-10 vs New England — Total 23 — Under

Denver Broncos:

• 10/11/26 — W 23-17 @ LA Chargers — Total 40 — Under
• 10/04/26 — L 14-24 @ San Francisco — Total 38 — Under
• 09/27/26 — W 30-26 vs LA Rams — Total 56 — Over
• 09/20/26 — W 20-13 vs Jacksonville — Total 33 — Under
• 09/14/26 — L 10-31 @ Kansas City — Total 41 — Under

RECENT NEWS & INJURIES

Seattle Seahawks:

• ILvl HIGH RB Zach Charbonnet — OUT, knee/PUP. RB Jadarian Price is also on IR with a chest injury.
• ILvl HIGH LB Drake Thomas — OUT, ankle.
• ILvl MEDIUM LB Chazz Surratt — OUT, calf.
• ILvl MEDIUM WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba — ankle; limited Monday and Tuesday, full Wednesday, no final designation.
• ILvl LOW DT Leonard Williams and QB Drew Lock have no final injury designations.
• ILvl LOW WR Irv Charles activated from IR and expected to make his season debut.
• ILvl HIGH Emanuel Wilson projected as the lead running back. Kenneth Walker III is no longer on Seattle’s roster.

Denver Broncos:

• ILvl HIGH CB Patrick Surtain II — OUT, ankle.
• ILvl HIGH S Talanoa Hufanga — OUT, ankle.
• ILvl MEDIUM CB Riley Moss — QUESTIONABLE, ribs; limited throughout the week.
• ILvl MEDIUM WR Pat Bryant and RB Jonah Coleman — IR.
• ILvl LOW No offensive starter carries a final game-status designation.

WEATHER:

WVI: 0.0 — no adjustment

• Kickoff wind: 5–7 mph, becoming calm
• Daytime gusts: up to 28 mph, forecast to subside
• Precipitation: showers forecast to end before 3 PM
• Kickoff temperature: mid-to-upper 40s°F
• Wind clause: 0
• Rain clause: 0
• Temperature clause: 0

WIF: 0.0 — no applied weather adjustment

• Wind greater than 15 mph at kickoff: No, based on nighttime forecast
• Steady rain/snow: No
• Temperature at least 80°F/high humidity: No
• Closed roof: No

xTD Weather Boost Index: N/A — no independently calculated value supplied.

Alternative weather scenario: If daytime gusts persist into the first quarter, WVI would be −1.5. However, the total has already declined from 42.5 to 40.5, so the adjustment is declined under P1.

TEAM PLAYING AT HOME:

Denver Broncos — Yes.

Home-field advantage is already reflected in the market spread. No additional model adjustment is applied.

Raw simulation:

• Seattle: 57.76%
• Denver: 42.24%

Project home-team adjustment: Not applied under the supplied v3.5 engine.

PUBLIC FAVORITES DELTA:

Not applied. No verified 90%+ public-money reading.

Available market splits:

• Hard Rock Seattle spread: 76% bets / 87% money
• Hard Rock Denver moneyline: 55% bets / 86% money
• SBD Seattle spread: 56% bets / 70% money

Book Exposure: Qualified, with mixed signals across publishers.

GAME PREDICTIONS

1. Team to Win: Seattle Seahawks

• Simulated win probability: 57.76%
• Denver Broncos: 42.24%
• CF: 57.76%
• Vig-free Seattle market probability: 56.51%
• Seattle favorite-arm discrepancy: +1.30%
• Denver underdog moneyline discrepancy: −1.30%
• MSI: Not triggered.
• Verdict: No qualifying edge.

2. Final Score Prediction:

Seattle Seahawks

21

Projected Winner

Denver Broncos

19

Home

• Simulated mean: Seattle 21.5, Denver 19.1
• Mean margin: Seattle +2.5
• Mean total: 40.5
• Printed score: Seattle 21, Denver 19
• Off-grid score permitted under C2; no nearby grid pair satisfies both total and margin tolerances.

2a. Moneyline Surprise:

No Moneyline Surprise projected — model and market align closely.

• Seattle model probability: 57.76%
• Seattle vig-free market probability: 56.51%
• Denver model probability: 42.24%
• Denver vig-free market probability: 43.49%
• Denver dog-side edge: approximately −1.30%
• MSI requirements are not satisfied.

2b. True Score Simulation (TSS):

• Simulated Win Probability — 100,000 Games: Seattle 57.76% vs Denver 42.24%
• Simulated Average Score: Seattle 21.5, Denver 19.1
• Most Common Sim Occurrences:
• Seattle 21-18 Denver — 0.21%
• Seattle 19-19 Denver — 0.21%
• Seattle 19-18 Denver — 0.21%
• Seattle 24-16 Denver — 0.19%
• Seattle 23-17 Denver — 0.19%
• P(|margin| ≥14): 29.3%
• X-7 Script Note: FIRES
• Clamp diagnostic: INERT

3. First Team to Score: Seattle Seahawks — 52.6% CF

• Denver Broncos: 47.4%
• No sportsbook market price supplied.

4. Total Points: 40.5 — Over 40.5 — 50.11% CF

• Over 40.5: 50.11%
• Under 40.5: 49.89%
• Vig-free market bars: approximately 49.46–51.08%
• Model mean total equals market anchor.
• Definitional — no qualifying edge.

5. Point Spread: Denver Broncos +2.5 — 50.13% CF

• Seattle −2.5 cover: 49.87%
• Denver +2.5 cover: 50.13%
• Market spread: Seattle −2.5 at eight named anchor sportsbooks.
• Key-number zone around 3 raises required Lean threshold to 5%.
• Spread is definitional because model margin equals market spread.
• No qualifying spread edge.

6. FIRST TOUCHDOWN:

First-TD probabilities are assumed λ-share estimates, not a ratified first-TD forecasting method. Kalshi quotes are exchange references, not sportsbook prices.

Seattle Seahawks:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 10.9% | Kalshi market 13.9%
• AJ Barner — 5.1% | Kalshi market 5.0%

Denver Broncos:

• Evan Engram — 3.5% | Kalshi market 4.0%

Other players: N/A — complete on-slate first-TD market unavailable.

7. ANYTIME TD MODEL:

Seattle Seahawks:

Player Anytime TD probability Emanuel Wilson 44.1% Jaxon Smith-Njigba 36.4% George Holani 20.5% Rashid Shaheed 19.8% AJ Barner 18.9% Cooper Kupp 14.9% Sam Darnold 10.4% Tory Horton 8.3% Elijah Arroyo 5.4% Eric Saubert 3.3% Irv Charles 2.4% Brady Russell 1.0%

Denver Broncos:

Player Anytime TD probability J.K. Dobbins 29.4% Jaylen Waddle 21.8% RJ Harvey 18.9% Courtland Sutton 18.1% Bo Nix 14.7% Evan Engram 13.4% Marvin Mims Jr. 11.3% Troy Franklin 11.0% Lil’Jordan Humphrey 8.7% Tyler Badie 6.0% Nate Adkins 5.7% Adam Trautman 4.2% Adam Prentice 1.6%

All anytime TD probabilities are model readings only. Prop plays remain suspended under add-on B2.

Player Breakout:

Seattle Seahawks:

• Emanuel Wilson: 19.5 carries, 77.3 rushing yards, 1.2 targets, 8.3 receiving yards, 44.1% ATD — BRI soft flag, increasing role and snap volume.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 9.9 targets, 7.0 receptions, 90.7 receiving yards, 36.4% ATD — BRI no flag; already established volume leader.
• Marvin Mims Jr. is on Denver, not Seattle.

Denver Broncos:

• RJ Harvey: 4.7 carries, 18.7 rushing yards, 3.9 targets, 25.3 receiving yards, 18.9% ATD — BRI no flag; reduced rushing role.
• Marvin Mims Jr.: 2.6 targets, 1.7 receptions, 16.5 receiving yards, 11.3% ATD — BRI soft flag, increased snap opportunity following Bryant’s IR designation.
• J.K. Dobbins: 13.1 carries, 51.6 rushing yards, 1.1 targets, 7.4 receiving yards, 29.4% ATD — BRI N/A.

No hard BRI flag is issued.

FULL PLAYER STAT PROJECTIONS

Seattle Seahawks — Passing

• Sam Darnold: 30.54 ATT, 20.1 CMP, 222.2 gross passing yards
• Projected sacks: 2.04
• Passing TD projection: N/A
• Interception projection: N/A
• Rushing: 2.4 carries, 10.4 yards

Seattle Seahawks — Rushing

Player Carries Yards Emanuel Wilson 19.5 77.3 George Holani 6.8 27.8 Sam Darnold 2.4 10.4 Rashid Shaheed 0.9 3.8

Remaining low-volume carries are included in team totals but not individually quantified in the supplied breakout.

Seattle Seahawks — Receiving

Player Targets Receptions Yards Jaxon Smith-Njigba 9.9 7.0 90.7 Rashid Shaheed 4.2 2.5 27.4 AJ Barner 4.0 2.9 27.3 Cooper Kupp 3.7 2.4 26.4 Tory Horton 2.0 1.2 13.6 George Holani 1.4 1.1 9.5 Emanuel Wilson 1.2 1.0 8.3 Elijah Arroyo 1.2 0.8 8.0 Eric Saubert 0.7 0.5 4.6 Irv Charles 0.6 0.4 3.8 Brady Russell 0.4 0.3 2.6

Denver Broncos — Passing

• Bo Nix: 33.22 ATT, 21.1 CMP, 207.8 gross passing yards
• Projected sacks: 1.24
• Passing TD projection: N/A
• Interception projection: N/A
• Rushing: 4.0 carries, 16.4 yards

Denver Broncos — Rushing

Player Carries Yards J.K. Dobbins 13.1 51.6 RJ Harvey 4.7 18.7 Bo Nix 4.0 16.4 Tyler Badie 1.0 4.1

Remaining low-volume carries are included in team totals but not individually quantified in the supplied breakout.

Denver Broncos — Receiving

Player Targets Receptions Yards Jaylen Waddle 6.0 3.8 42.2 Courtland Sutton 5.2 3.0 33.7 RJ Harvey 3.9 3.2 25.3 Evan Engram 3.4 2.3 21.3 Troy Franklin 2.8 1.8 18.3 Marvin Mims Jr. 2.6 1.7 16.5 Lil’Jordan Humphrey 2.4 1.4 15.3 Tyler Badie 1.6 1.2 10.5 Nate Adkins 1.2 0.9 8.2 J.K. Dobbins 1.1 0.9 7.4 Adam Trautman 1.0 0.8 6.7 Adam Prentice 0.4 0.3 2.3

EDGE SUMMARY

• Seattle ML: model 57.76% vs market 56.51% → +1.25 percentage points.
• Seattle favorite arm: suspended for NFL.
• Denver ML: model 42.24% vs market 43.49% → approximately −1.30% in the source’s fixed-σ comparison.
• Denver +2.5: 50.13% cover probability, definitional.
• Seattle −2.5: 49.87% cover probability, definitional.
• Over 40.5: 50.11%, definitional.
• Under 40.5: 49.89%, definitional.
• Props: no qualifying two-sided named-book markets; B2 suspends plays.
• Weather: WVI 0.0; no applied adjustment.
• Declined candidates: no qualifying candidate reached the threshold.
• MODEL VERDICT: No qualifying edge.

INSIGHTS

Strengths: Seattle’s pass defense allows only 5.45 gross yards per opposing pass attempt, while Smith-Njigba commands approximately 35% of the team’s receiving targets. Denver benefits from home altitude, and its offense has committed only five turnovers through five games.

Weaknesses: Seattle’s backfield depth is limited by injuries, and Darnold has five interceptions on 98 attempts. Denver allows 145.2 rushing yards per game and enters the matchup without Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga.

Winning edge: Seattle is the projected winner at 57.76%, but the market already prices the Seahawks as the favorite. The model does not identify a qualifying wager.

SPORTSBOOK LIABILITIES:

• Hard Rock: Seattle receives 76% of spread tickets and 87% of spread handle.
• Hard Rock: Denver receives 55% of moneyline tickets and 86% of moneyline handle.
• VSiN reports notable Denver moneyline support at Circa.
• SBD reports Seattle with 70% of spread handle.
• Hard Rock total: Under receives 55% of tickets and 70% of handle.
• Market movement: total 42.5 → 40.5, with the spread remaining predominantly Seattle −2.5.
• Mixed publisher signals prevent a definitive sportsbook-liability conclusion.

99.99% Parlay:

Step 1 — Highest-Confidence 5-Leg Construction

Leg True probability Seattle +7.5 78.67% Denver +10.5 73.77% Over 33.5 69.88% Under 47.5 69.76% Seattle ML 57.76%

Product probability: 16.34% (source-reported).

True simulated intersection: 12.36%.

Nesting:

• Seattle ML implies Seattle +7.5.
• Nominal five legs, effective four.
• Legs are correlated; multiplying their probabilities is not a valid joint forecast.

Step 2 — Same Legs Adjusted to 98% Display Confidence

The source does not authorize inflating the probabilities. The 98% display target is not achieved.

Leg Requested display target True probability Seattle +7.5 98% 78.67% Denver +10.5 98% 73.77% Over 33.5 98% 69.88% Under 47.5 98% 69.76% Seattle ML 98% 57.76%

True simulated joint probability remains 12.36%. No legitimate 98%, 99% or 99.99% five-leg joint probability is established.

Raw Prediction:

• ML: Seattle 57.76% | Denver 42.24%
• Spread: Denver +2.5 — true 50.13%
• Top 5 Alt Spreads:
• Denver +10.5 — 73.77%
• Seattle +3.5 — 68.23%
• Denver +7.5 — 65.51%
• Seattle +2.5 — 65.36%
• Denver +6.5 — 62.50%
• Top 5 Alt Totals:
• Over 30.5 — 77.31%
• Under 50.5 — 76.94%
• Over 33.5 — 69.88%
• Under 47.5 — 69.76%
• Over 36.5 — 61.88%
• Passing Yards:
• Sam Darnold — 222.2
• Bo Nix — 207.8
• Rushing Yards:
• Emanuel Wilson — 77.3
• J.K. Dobbins — 51.6
• George Holani — 27.8
• RJ Harvey — 18.7
• Bo Nix — 16.4
• Sam Darnold — 10.4
• Tyler Badie — 4.1
• Rashid Shaheed — 3.8
• Receiving Yards:
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 90.7
• Jaylen Waddle — 42.2
• Courtland Sutton — 33.7
• Rashid Shaheed — 27.4
• AJ Barner — 27.3
• Cooper Kupp — 26.4
• RJ Harvey — 25.3
• Evan Engram — 21.3
• Troy Franklin — 18.3
• Marvin Mims Jr. — 16.5
• Lil’Jordan Humphrey — 15.3
• Tory Horton — 13.6
• Tyler Badie — 10.5
• George Holani — 9.5
• Emanuel Wilson — 8.3
• Nate Adkins — 8.2
• Elijah Arroyo — 8.0
• J.K. Dobbins — 7.4
• Adam Trautman — 6.7
• Eric Saubert — 4.6
• Irv Charles — 3.8
• Brady Russell — 2.6
• Adam Prentice — 2.3
• Anytime Touchdown:
• Emanuel Wilson — 44.1%
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 36.4%
• J.K. Dobbins — 29.4%
• Jaylen Waddle — 21.8%
• George Holani — 20.5%
• Rashid Shaheed — 19.8%
• AJ Barner — 18.9%
• RJ Harvey — 18.9%
• Courtland Sutton — 18.1%
• Cooper Kupp — 14.9%
• Bo Nix — 14.7%
• Evan Engram — 13.4%
• Marvin Mims Jr. — 11.3%
• Troy Franklin — 11.0%
• Sam Darnold — 10.4%
• Lil’Jordan Humphrey — 8.7%
• Tory Horton — 8.3%
• Tyler Badie — 6.0%
• Nate Adkins — 5.7%
• Elijah Arroyo — 5.4%
• Adam Trautman — 4.2%
• Eric Saubert — 3.3%
• Irv Charles — 2.4%
• Adam Prentice — 1.6%
• Brady Russell — 1.0%
• First Team to Score: Seattle — 52.6%

No qualifying edge.

Source-based formatting only. All forecasts, injury statuses, market quotes, and simulated probabilities are reproduced from the supplied NFL Edge Engine report; they have not been independently refreshed or verified.