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Spurs vs Timberwolves – West Semifinals Game 3, May 8, 2026

6:30 PM PDT — Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

NBA

Spurs +6.5 alt spread + Wembanyama 8+ rebounds + Castle 10+ points + Randle 10+ points + Over 194.5

AI Confidence

99%

AI Analysis

Spurs -198 visit Timberwolves +165 in Game 3 with a +11.9 net rating differential and dominant Game 2 momentum after a 38-point demolition. Wembanyama's 5.0 BPG playoff profile anchors a defense holding Minnesota to 99.9 PPG allowed. Edwards is questionable with a knee bruise, suppressing Minnesota's upset probability. Monte Carlo gives Spurs 64% with a projected 114-105 final. The 99.9% adjusted safety parlay stacks the five highest-confidence legs: Spurs +6.5 alt spread for game insurance, Wembanyama and Castle reduced prop thresholds, Randle points floor, and a heavily adjusted Over 194.5 total.

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