Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Betting Pick

——START OUTPUT——

[NFL][Week 7 — Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles] Estimated Handle N/A — October 26, 2026

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

- Type: Regular Season — Week 7 - Kick-off: 5:15 PM PDT / 8:15 PM EDT - Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania — Open Air - Weather: Approximately 61°F at kickoff, west wind 3 mph, 0% precipitation - Betting Favorite: Dallas Cowboys −4.5 - Over/Under: 43.5 - Moneyline: Dallas −205 to −230 | Philadelphia +170 to +190 - Model Verdict: NO QUALIFYING EDGE - Model: NFL EDGE ENGINE v3.5 — 100,000 simulations, seed 7 - Status: Pre-inactives; player projections conditional on final active rosters STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

- Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott: 289.2 projected passing yards | 1.76 derived passing TD | INT N/A | 40.23 passing attempts | 6.24 current-season ANY/A. - Philadelphia Eagles — Tanner McKee: 222.8 projected passing yards | 1.17 derived passing TD | INT N/A | 33.13 passing attempts | 4.31 current-season ANY/A. - Prescott projects for 29.8% more passing yards than McKee. - TQBS: N/A — the source does not provide a validated TQBS calculation or interception forecasts. - Prescott's six-game sample is considerably larger than McKee's one-start sample. TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Dallas Cowboys

• Record: 2–4
• Points/Game: 25.17
• Points Allowed/Game: 26.50
• Net Offense: 343.17 yards/game
• Net Passing: 267.17 yards/game
• Rushing: 76.00 yards/game
• Opponent Net Passing: 232.67 yards/game
• Opponent Rushing: 149.83 yards/game
• Projected Pace: 65.08 plays
• Projected Pass Attempts: 40.23
• Projected Rush Attempts: 23.60
• Giveaways/Takeaways: 7/3
• Turnover Differential: −4
• Projected POS: N/A
• True Team Stat: N/A — no ratified TTS calculation supplied.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Record: 2–4
• Points/Game: 17.67
• Points Allowed/Game: 22.83
• Net Offense: 255.50 yards/game
• Net Passing: 173.33 yards/game
• Rushing: 82.17 yards/game
• Opponent Net Passing: 244.50 yards/game
• Opponent Rushing: 119.33 yards/game
• Projected Pace: 60.83 plays
• Projected Pass Attempts: 33.13
• Projected Rush Attempts: 25.70
• Giveaways/Takeaways: 5/3
• Turnover Differential: −2
• Projected POS: N/A
• True Team Stat: N/A

TTS Comparison: N/A — Dallas has the higher offensive production, while Philadelphia has the stronger rush defense by yards allowed. PREVIOUS GAMES:

Dallas Cowboys

• 10/18/26 — L 13–23 @ Green Bay — Total 36
• 10/08/26 — L 16–24 vs Tampa Bay — Total 40
• 10/04/26 — W 34–30 @ Houston — Total 64
• 09/27/26 — L 31–34 vs Baltimore (neutral, Rio) — Total 65
• 09/20/26 — W 37–20 vs Washington — Total 57

Philadelphia Eagles

• 10/18/26 — L 14–25 vs Carolina — Total 39
• 10/11/26 — L 17–19 vs Jacksonville (neutral, London) — Total 36
• 10/04/26 — L 20–24 vs Los Angeles Rams — Total 44
• 09/28/26 — L 7–27 @ Chicago — Total 34
• 09/20/26 — W 24–20 @ Tennessee — Total 44

# ——START OUTPUT——

[NFL][Week 7 — Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles] Estimated Handle N/A — October 26, 2026

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

• Type: Regular Season — Week 7
• Kick-off: 5:15 PM PDT / 8:15 PM EDT
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania — Open Air
• Weather: Approximately 61°F at kickoff, west wind 3 mph, 0% precipitation
• Betting Favorite: Dallas Cowboys −4.5
• Over/Under: 43.5
• Moneyline: Dallas −205 to −230 | Philadelphia +170 to +190
• Model Verdict: NO QUALIFYING EDGE
• Model: NFL EDGE ENGINE v3.5 — 100,000 simulations, seed 7
• Status: Pre-inactives; player projections conditional on final active rosters

STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

• Dallas Cowboys — Dak Prescott: 289.2 projected passing yards | 1.76 derived passing TD | INT N/A | 40.23 passing attempts | 6.24 current-season ANY/A.
• Philadelphia Eagles — Tanner McKee: 222.8 projected passing yards | 1.17 derived passing TD | INT N/A | 33.13 passing attempts | 4.31 current-season ANY/A.
• Prescott projects for 29.8% more passing yards than McKee.
• TQBS: N/A — the source does not provide a validated TQBS calculation or interception forecasts.
• Prescott's six-game sample is considerably larger than McKee's one-start sample.

TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Dallas Cowboys

• Record: 2–4
• Points/Game: 25.17
• Points Allowed/Game: 26.50
• Net Offense: 343.17 yards/game
• Net Passing: 267.17 yards/game
• Rushing: 76.00 yards/game
• Opponent Net Passing: 232.67 yards/game
• Opponent Rushing: 149.83 yards/game
• Projected Pace: 65.08 plays
• Projected Pass Attempts: 40.23
• Projected Rush Attempts: 23.60
• Giveaways/Takeaways: 7/3
• Turnover Differential: −4
• Projected POS: N/A
• True Team Stat: N/A — no ratified TTS calculation supplied.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Record: 2–4
• Points/Game: 17.67
• Points Allowed/Game: 22.83
• Net Offense: 255.50 yards/game
• Net Passing: 173.33 yards/game
• Rushing: 82.17 yards/game
• Opponent Net Passing: 244.50 yards/game
• Opponent Rushing: 119.33 yards/game
• Projected Pace: 60.83 plays
• Projected Pass Attempts: 33.13
• Projected Rush Attempts: 25.70
• Giveaways/Takeaways: 5/3
• Turnover Differential: −2
• Projected POS: N/A
• True Team Stat: N/A

TTS Comparison: N/A — Dallas has the higher offensive production, while Philadelphia has the stronger rush defense by yards allowed.

PREVIOUS GAMES:

Dallas Cowboys

• 10/18/26 — L 13–23 @ Green Bay — Total 36
• 10/08/26 — L 16–24 vs Tampa Bay — Total 40
• 10/04/26 — W 34–30 @ Houston — Total 64
• 09/27/26 — L 31–34 vs Baltimore (neutral, Rio) — Total 65
• 09/20/26 — W 37–20 vs Washington — Total 57

Philadelphia Eagles

• 10/18/26 — L 14–25 vs Carolina — Total 39
• 10/11/26 — L 17–19 vs Jacksonville (neutral, London) — Total 36
• 10/04/26 — L 20–24 vs Los Angeles Rams — Total 44
• 09/28/26 — L 7–27 @ Chicago — Total 34
• 09/20/26 — W 24–20 @ Tennessee — Total 44

• ATS and O/U grades: N/A — historical closing lines were not reliably recovered.
• Head-to-head: Dallas won 24–21 on November 23, 2025; Philadelphia won 24–20 on September 4, 2025.
• Historical scores are descriptive only and did not introduce model adjustments.

RECENT NEWS & INJURIES

Dallas Cowboys

• [ILvl HIGH] KaVontae Turpin OUT — return and receiving contributions excluded.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] Drew Shelton and Dee Winters OUT.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] Marist Liufau and P.J. Locke require activation and are excluded pending confirmation.
• [ILvl LOW] George Pickens eligible; Cobie Durant and DeMarvion Overshown expected back.
• Dak Prescott remains the projected starting QB.

Philadelphia Eagles

• [ILvl HIGH] Jalen Hurts on IR — Tanner McKee projected starting QB.
• [ILvl HIGH] DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks OUT — receiving personnel significantly affected.
• [ILvl HIGH] Saquon Barkley QUESTIONABLE — included at full projected share pending final inactives.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt QUESTIONABLE.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] Nolan Smith and Michael Carter OUT.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] Grant Calcaterra, Eli Stowers, Landon Dickerson and Jakorian Bennett require activation.
• [ILvl LOW] Makai Lemon and Dallas Goedert project for significant receiving opportunities.

WEATHER:

• WVI: 0.0 — no adjustment
• Temperature: Approximately 61°F at kickoff; falling toward 55°F
• Sustained Wind: 2–3 mph W/NW
• Precipitation: 0%
• Gusts: N/A — not reported

Weather Adjustment

• Wind clause: 0
• Rain clause: 0
• Temperature clause: 0
• Total points adjustment: 0.0
• Passing-yard adjustment: 0.0
• WIF: 0.0
• xTD Weather Boost Index: N/A — not calculated in source.

Exact-stadium NWS coordinates were not confirmed; the forecast uses a nearby Philadelphia geographic point.

TEAM PLAYING AT HOME:

• Philadelphia Eagles — Yes
• Home-field advantage is already incorporated into the market anchor.
• Additional win probability adjustment: 0.0 percentage points.
• Additional scoring adjustment: 0.0 points.

Simulation Win Probability

• Dallas Cowboys: 63.89%
• Philadelphia Eagles: 36.11%

PUBLIC FAVORITES DELTA:

DraftKings Moneyline

• Dallas: 86% bets | 73% handle
• Philadelphia: 14% bets | 27% handle
• Philadelphia moneyline handle-minus-ticket differential: +13 percentage points.

DraftKings Spread

• Dallas: 68% bets | 42% handle
• Philadelphia: 32% bets | 58% handle
• Philadelphia spread handle-minus-ticket differential: +26 percentage points.

DraftKings Total

• Over: 66% bets | 76% handle
• Under: 34% bets | 24% handle

• Philadelphia has greater spread handle despite fewer spread tickets.
• Philadelphia's moneyline differential does not meet the 15-percentage-point threshold.
• Reverse line movement: N/A — conflicting opening-spread reports.
• No public-money adjustment applied.

# GAME PREDICTIONS

1. Team to Win: Dallas Cowboys

• Simulated Win Probability: 63.89%
• Philadelphia Win Probability: 36.11%
• Vig-free Dallas Market Probability: 65.92%
• Dallas Moneyline Edge: −2.03 percentage points
• CF: 63.89%
• MSI: Not triggered
• Betting Verdict: No qualifying edge.

2. Final Score Prediction:

[Dallas Cowboys](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/kfGZlwH-mnHCm8BLLA9BdaSYISiTes1_ziglbOAVkZBBkDGIYnutoVAaHr_0L1ddG0rMuuOWEebOvx4q6DeDH46rylnm-SLA3bcrz45t5AQ2lrnIXo6IfVIvrJIEdv1iqggR9BxwIWzOBi0D-4FXBhFEGVYkm507Z_sl2yUjYyY?purpose=inline)

Dallas Cowboys

# 24

Projected winner

[Eagles Gameday Radio](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/X1PYlusCj5k5-l-DidfaXxQT4oP1K2NaBY41XV2TTzDgUjSuqMbx1obEGgdJ495LegZxnycEefWJdi4POs4C30f4P1RKdo6nH4_LWRQi6BwT3xqgoTs_YBF9hY8uTbY_pV_9VA88ggpkeE2SWiNytrW49MTXEoYz3hny8Q2V_90?purpose=inline)

Philadelphia Eagles

# 20

• Simulated Mean: Dallas 24.03, Philadelphia 19.59
• Market-Implied Score: Dallas 24.0, Philadelphia 19.5
• Model Margin: Dallas +4.5
• Model Total: 43.5
• Display Score Total: 44
• Display Score Margin: Dallas +4

2a. Moneyline Surprise:

No Moneyline Surprise projected.

• Dallas Model: 63.89%
• Dallas Vig-Free Market: 65.92%
• Philadelphia Model: 36.11%
• Philadelphia Vig-Free Market: 34.08%
• Philadelphia Dog Edge: +2.03 percentage points
• MSI Threshold: +6 percentage points
• MSI Requirements: Not satisfied.

2b. True Score Simulation (TSS):

• Monte Carlo Simulations: 100,000
• Dallas Win: 63.89%
• Philadelphia Win: 36.11%
• Dallas −4.5 Cover: 49.86%
• Philadelphia +4.5 Cover: 50.14%
• Over 43.5: 50.11%
• Under 43.5: 49.89%
• Simulated Average Score: Dallas 24.03, Philadelphia 19.59

Most Common Sim Occurrences

• Dallas 21–18 Philadelphia — 0.20%
• Dallas 25–18 Philadelphia — 0.20%
• Dallas 24–17 Philadelphia — 0.20%
• Dallas 22–20 Philadelphia — 0.20%
• Dallas 21–19 Philadelphia — 0.20%

Simulation Diagnostics

• P(|margin| ≥14): 31.41%
• Dallas wins by 14+: 23.68%
• Philadelphia wins by 14+: 7.74%
• Clamp Diagnostic: INERT
• Total Probability Clamp Shift: +0.01 percentage points
• No distribution adjustment required.

3. First Team to Score: Dallas Cowboys — 56.37% CF

• Philadelphia Eagles: 43.63%
• Includes field goals and touchdowns.
• Confirmed sportsbook market: N/A
• No qualifying betting edge.

4. Total Points: 43.5 — Over 43.5 — 50.11% CF

• Over 43.5: 50.11%
• Under 43.5: 49.89%
• Vig-Free Market Over: 50.98%
• Over Edge: −0.87 percentage points
• Under Edge: +0.87 percentage points
• Market and model total anchored at 43.5.
• Verdict: Definitional — no qualifying edge.

Alternative Totals

• Over 24.5: 92.36%
• Over 33.5: 77.21%
• Over 43.5: 50.11%
• Over 53.5: 23.04%
• Over 63.5: 6.92%

• FanDuel 44.5: Over 47.11%, Under 52.89%.
• Whole-number 44: Push probability 3.00%.
• No alternative total qualifies as a wager.

5. Point Spread: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 — 50.14% CF

• Dallas −4.5 Cover: 49.86%
• Philadelphia +4.5 Cover: 50.14%
• Vig-Free Dallas −4.5 Market: 50.05%
• Dallas Spread Edge: −0.19 percentage points
• Philadelphia Spread Edge: +0.19 percentage points
• All available fresh sportsbook spread pairs use 4.5 points.
• No qualifying spread edge.

Top Five Dallas Alternate Spreads

• Dallas +6.5: 80.75%
• Dallas +10.5: 88.29%
• Dallas +14.5: 93.32%
• Dallas +17.5: 95.86%
• Dallas +20.5: 97.54%

These are model probabilities, not verified profitable betting opportunities.

6. FIRST TOUCHDOWN:

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams — +400
• CeeDee Lamb — +700
• George Pickens — +850
• Jake Ferguson — +1400
• Ryan Flournoy — +1800

Philadelphia Eagles

• Saquon Barkley [Q] — +500
• Dallas Goedert — +1000
• Makai Lemon — +1600

• First-touchdown model probability: N/A
• Source does not include a ratified first-touchdown probability method.
• Listed odds are single-sided market references, not model probabilities.
• No first-touchdown betting recommendations.

7. ANYTIME TD MODEL:

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams — 42.71%
• CeeDee Lamb — 40.39%
• George Pickens — 34.02%
• Jake Ferguson — 22.96%
• Ryan Flournoy — 21.75%
• Dak Prescott — 12.35%
• Tyler Goodson — 10.62%
• Emari Demercado — 7.89%
• Brevyn Spann-Ford — 7.12%
• Jonathan Mingo — 5.36%
• Luke Schoonmaker — 4.53%
• Hunter Luepke — 3.96%

Philadelphia Eagles

• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 37.23%
• Dameon Pierce — 30.23%
• Dallas Goedert — 28.87%
• Makai Lemon — 20.15%
• Hollywood Brown — 17.72%
• Darius Cooper — 8.45%
• Tanner McKee — 7.52%
• Elijah Moore — 6.01%
• Johnny Mundt — 5.40%
• Britain Covey — 1.41%

• Dallas team TD intensity: 2.6720
• Philadelphia team TD intensity: 1.9835
• Residual FIELD allocation: 5% each team
• All available anytime TD prices are single-sided.
• Prop betting suspended under add-on B2.

PLAYER BREAKOUT:

Dallas Cowboys

• CeeDee Lamb — 10.51 targets, 6.94 receptions, 84.6 receiving yards, 40.39% anytime TD.
• George Pickens — 8.70 targets, 5.66 receptions, 73.8 receiving yards, 34.02% anytime TD.
• Javonte Williams — 14.80 carries, 63.6 rushing yards, 3.58 targets, 24.5 receiving yards, 42.71% anytime TD.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Dallas Goedert — 7.72 targets, 5.54 receptions, 55.4 receiving yards, 28.87% anytime TD.
• Makai Lemon — 5.37 targets, 3.40 receptions, 36.3 receiving yards, 20.15% anytime TD.
• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 14.55 carries, 61.8 rushing yards, 3.50 targets, 24.2 receiving yards, 37.23% anytime TD.

BRI: N/A — insufficient complete, comparable last-three-game volume, snap, efficiency and matchup windows to calculate validated breakout flags. No breakout multiplier applied.

# FULL PLAYER STAT PROJECTIONS

Dallas Cowboys — Passing

Dak Prescott

• Passing Attempts: 40.23
• Passing Yards: 289.2
• Reference Passing Line: 266.5
• Over 266.5 Model Probability: 56.00%
• Derived Passing TD: 1.76
• Interceptions: N/A — no prescribed interception forecast model.
• Carries: 2.70
• Rushing Yards: 11.8
• Reference Rushing Line: 9.5

Dallas Cowboys — Rushing

• Javonte Williams — 14.80 CAR, 63.6 YDS
• Emari Demercado — 2.70 CAR, 11.9 YDS
• Dak Prescott — 2.70 CAR, 11.8 YDS
• Tyler Goodson — 2.49 CAR, 10.9 YDS
• Hunter Luepke — 0.57 CAR, 2.5 YDS
• CeeDee Lamb — 0.31 CAR, 1.4 YDS
• Ryan Flournoy — 0.03 CAR, 0.1 YDS
• George Pickens — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS
• Jake Ferguson — 0.01 CAR, approximately 0.0 YDS
• Brevyn Spann-Ford — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS
• Jonathan Mingo — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS
• Luke Schoonmaker — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS

Dallas Cowboys — Receiving

• CeeDee Lamb — 10.51 TGT, 6.94 REC, 84.6 YDS
• George Pickens — 8.70 TGT, 5.66 REC, 73.8 YDS
• Ryan Flournoy — 5.10 TGT, 3.34 REC, 35.8 YDS
• Jake Ferguson — 5.03 TGT, 3.76 REC, 31.8 YDS
• Javonte Williams — 3.58 TGT, 2.76 REC, 24.5 YDS
• Brevyn Spann-Ford — 1.42 TGT, 1.00 REC, 10.1 YDS
• Tyler Goodson — 1.23 TGT, 0.94 REC, 8.6 YDS
• Jonathan Mingo — 1.15 TGT, 0.69 REC, 8.1 YDS
• Luke Schoonmaker — 0.90 TGT, 0.63 REC, 6.5 YDS
• Hunter Luepke — 0.79 TGT, 0.60 REC, 5.5 YDS
• Emari Demercado — 0.00 TGT, 0.00 REC, 0.0 YDS

Philadelphia Eagles — Passing

Tanner McKee

• Passing Attempts: 33.13
• Passing Yards: 222.8
• Reference Passing Line: 195.5
• Over 195.5 Model Probability: 62.16%
• Derived Passing TD: 1.17
• Interceptions: N/A — no prescribed interception forecast model.
• Carries: 1.88
• Rushing Yards: 8.0
• Reference Rushing Line: 4.5

Philadelphia Eagles — Rushing

• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 14.55 CAR, 61.8 YDS
• Dameon Pierce — 8.31 CAR, 32.1 YDS
• Tanner McKee — 1.88 CAR, 8.0 YDS
• Hollywood Brown — 0.69 CAR, 2.9 YDS
• Makai Lemon — 0.16 CAR, 0.7 YDS
• Elijah Moore — 0.11 CAR, 0.4 YDS
• Darius Cooper — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS
• Britain Covey — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS
• Dallas Goedert — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS
• Johnny Mundt — 0.00 CAR, 0.0 YDS

Philadelphia Eagles — Receiving

• Dallas Goedert — 7.72 TGT, 5.54 REC, 55.4 YDS
• Dameon Pierce — 5.75 TGT, 4.39 REC, 39.2 YDS
• Makai Lemon — 5.37 TGT, 3.40 REC, 36.3 YDS
• Hollywood Brown — 4.11 TGT, 2.64 REC, 30.3 YDS
• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 3.50 TGT, 2.64 REC, 24.2 YDS
• Darius Cooper — 2.17 TGT, 1.37 REC, 16.0 YDS
• Elijah Moore — 1.42 TGT, 0.87 REC, 10.1 YDS
• Johnny Mundt — 1.26 TGT, 0.85 REC, 8.8 YDS
• Britain Covey — 0.35 TGT, 0.22 REC, 2.5 YDS

Player Projection Limitations

• Philadelphia's Dameon Pierce workload is particularly uncertain with Barkley's potential return.
• Several projected player lines differ materially from market references.
• Player receiving/rushing yards close to the source's team accounting budgets but are not independently validated against final outcomes.
• Final inactives may alter player allocation.

# EDGE SUMMARY

• Dallas Moneyline: −2.03 percentage points versus vig-free consensus.
• Philadelphia Moneyline: +2.03 percentage points versus vig-free consensus.
• Philadelphia +190 Caesars: +3.06 percentage points using fixed-σ closed form; DECLINED under rule 3.
• Dallas −4.5: −0.19 percentage points at consensus.
• Philadelphia +4.5: +0.19 percentage points at consensus.
• Over 43.5: −0.87 percentage points at consensus.
• Under 43.5: +0.87 percentage points at consensus.
• Weather: WVI 0.0; no independent edge.
• Props: Suspended under add-on B2.
• Total Actual Stake: 0 units.
• MODEL VERDICT: No qualifying edge.

# INSIGHTS

• Strengths: Dallas has the stronger offensive scoring profile and considerably more established quarterback sample. Prescott projects for 289.2 gross passing yards, with Lamb and Pickens leading receiving volume.
• Weaknesses: Dallas allows 149.83 rushing yards per game. Philadelphia enters with diminished receiving personnel and considerable uncertainty at quarterback and running back.
• Winning Edge: Philadelphia's spread handle exceeds Dallas's within the DraftKings sample, but the required independent price advantage is absent. The strongest candidate is Philadelphia +190 at Caesars, declined because other fresh books do not meet the threshold.

# SPORTSBOOK LIABILITIES:

• Dallas ML: 86% tickets / 73% handle.
• Philadelphia ML: 14% tickets / 27% handle.
• Dallas Spread: 68% tickets / 42% handle.
• Philadelphia Spread: 32% tickets / 58% handle.
• Over: 66% tickets / 76% handle.
• Under: 34% tickets / 24% handle.
• Philadelphia Spread Handle Delta: +26 percentage points.
• Philadelphia ML Handle Delta: +13 percentage points.
• Opening spread direction: Conflicting reports; RLM unverified.
• No demonstrated sportsbook-liability-driven betting edge.

# 99.99% Parlay:

Step 1 — Highest-Confidence 5-Leg Construction

Illustrative Fanatics alternate-market combination from the source, not a recommended or confirmed combinable ticket.

• Dallas +0.5 — 65.30%
• Philadelphia +9.5 — 65.47%
• Under 49.5 — 67.09%
• Over 39.5 — 61.78%
• Philadelphia +4.5 — 50.14%

True Simulated Joint Probability: 4.44%

• Simulated Winning Outcomes: 4,437 / 100,000
• Effective Legs: 4 rather than 5, because Philadelphia +4.5 implies Philadelphia +9.5.
• Combined Offered Price: N/A
• Model Fair Decimal Price: 22.54
• Expected Value: N/A — no combined sportsbook price.

Step 2 — 99.99% Confidence Validation

• Claimed 99.99% combined confidence: Not supported.
• True joint probability: 4.44%.
• No leg qualifies for the legacy 80% confidence display floor.
• Artificial probability inflation: Not applied.
• Parlay Verdict: NO QUALIFYING PARLAY.

# Raw Prediction:

Moneyline

• Dallas Cowboys — 63.89% CF
• Philadelphia Eagles — 36.11% CF

Point Spread

• Dallas −4.5 — 49.86% CF
• Philadelphia +4.5 — 50.14% CF

Top 5 Alternate Spreads

• Dallas +6.5 — 80.75%
• Dallas +10.5 — 88.29%
• Dallas +14.5 — 93.32%
• Dallas +17.5 — 95.86%
• Dallas +20.5 — 97.54%

Top 5 Alternate Totals

• Over 24.5 — 92.36%
• Over 33.5 — 77.21%
• Over 43.5 — 50.11%
• Over 53.5 — 23.04%
• Over 63.5 — 6.92%

Passing Yards — Engine Predictions

• Dak Prescott — 289.2
• Tanner McKee — 222.8

Rushing Yards — Engine Predictions

• Javonte Williams — 63.6
• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 61.8
• Dameon Pierce — 32.1
• Emari Demercado — 11.9
• Dak Prescott — 11.8
• Tyler Goodson — 10.9
• Tanner McKee — 8.0
• Hollywood Brown — 2.9
• Hunter Luepke — 2.5
• CeeDee Lamb — 1.4

Receiving Yards — Engine Predictions

• CeeDee Lamb — 84.6
• George Pickens — 73.8
• Dallas Goedert — 55.4
• Dameon Pierce — 39.2
• Makai Lemon — 36.3
• Ryan Flournoy — 35.8
• Jake Ferguson — 31.8
• Hollywood Brown — 30.3
• Javonte Williams — 24.5
• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 24.2
• Darius Cooper — 16.0
• Brevyn Spann-Ford — 10.1
• Elijah Moore — 10.1
• Johnny Mundt — 8.8
• Tyler Goodson — 8.6
• Jonathan Mingo — 8.1
• Luke Schoonmaker — 6.5
• Hunter Luepke — 5.5
• Britain Covey — 2.5

Anytime Touchdown — Highest Model Probabilities

• Javonte Williams — 42.71%
• CeeDee Lamb — 40.39%
• Saquon Barkley [Q] — 37.23%
• George Pickens — 34.02%
• Dameon Pierce — 30.23%
• Dallas Goedert — 28.87%
• Jake Ferguson — 22.96%
• Ryan Flournoy — 21.75%
• Makai Lemon — 20.15%
• Hollywood Brown — 17.72%

All confidence percentages shown are true model estimates, including probabilities below 80%. No minimum confidence has been artificially assigned.

# TOP PLAYS:

NO QUALIFYING EDGE.

• Philadelphia ML +190 at Caesars: Declined under rule 3.
• Spread: No qualifying play.
• Total: No qualifying play.
• Player Props: Suspended.
• Parlays: No qualifying combination.
• Actual Stake: 0 units.

Execution Audit

• Simulation: Completed.
• Source Game Data: Completed with documented substitutions.
• Weather: Partial venue-point verification.
• Player Projections: Conditional.
• C14 Player Calibration Direction: Failed for mixed Philadelphia player readings.
• Canonical Ledger Write-Back: Incomplete.
• Final Inactives: Pending.
• Source ledger snapshot: Checked; no new records written.

# ——END OUTPUT——