Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction & Betting Pick

——START OUTPUT——

[NFL][Week 7 — Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks] Estimated Handle N/A — October 25, 2026

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks

- Type: Regular Season - Kick-off: 5:20 PM PDT / 8:20 PM EDT - Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington — Open Air - Weather: Approximately 54°F, wind 2 mph, precipitation probability 51% (nearby forecast) - Model: NFL EDGE ENGINE v3.5 - Simulation: 100,000 games, seed 7 - Status: CONDITIONAL RESEARCH RUN - Verdict: No qualifying edge STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes: 223.9 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

Seattle Seahawks — Sam Darnold: 234.8 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

- Patrick Mahomes: 8.02 ANY/A - Sam Darnold: 4.67 ANY/A - Mahomes' ANY/A is approximately 71.7% higher than Darnold's. - Mahomes 2026 passer rating: 103.1 - Darnold 2026 passer rating: 77.4 - QB composite: Descriptive only; no independent scoring adjustment - TQBS: N/A — passing touchdown and interception projection equations remain unspecified. TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Kansas City Chiefs:

• Record: 5–0
• Points/Game: 28.00
• Points Allowed/Game: 16.60
• Net Offensive Yards/Game: 414.00
• Gross Passing Yards/Game: 261.80
• Rushing Yards/Game: 159.80
• Opponent Gross Passing Yards/Game: 224.00
• Opponent Rushing Yards/Game: 88.80
• Offensive Pace: 61.80 component plays/game
• Projected Scrimmage Plays: 60.90
• Projected Pass Attempts: 33.23
• Projected Rush Attempts: 27.67
• Turnover Differential: +5
• True Team Stat: N/A

Seattle Seahawks:

• Record: 3–3
• Points/Game: 24.70
• Points Allowed/Game: 20.30
• Net Offensive Yards/Game: 332.20
• Gross Passing Yards/Game: 244.80
• Rushing Yards/Game: 107.20
• Opponent Gross Passing Yards/Game: 156.80
• Opponent Rushing Yards/Game: 96.00
• Offensive Pace: 63.17 component plays/game
• Projected Scrimmage Plays: 63.38
• Projected Pass Attempts: 33.09
• Projected Rush Attempts: 30.30
• Turnover Differential: −1
• True Team Stat: N/A

TTS comparison: N/A — the supplied source does not define a complete executable True Team Stat composite. Kansas City leads in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, rushing production, and turnover differential. PREVIOUS GAMES:

Kansas City Chiefs:

• 10/18/26 — W 22–6 vs LA Chargers — Total 28 — Under
• 10/04/26 — W 30–27 @ Las Vegas — Total 57 — Over
• 09/27/26 — W 24–10 @ Miami — Total 34 — Under
• 09/20/26 — W 33–30 vs Indianapolis — Total 63 — Over
• 09/14/26 — W 31–10 vs Denver — Total 41 — Under

Seattle Seahawks:

- 10/15/26 — L 14–17 @ Denver (OT) — Total 31 — Under - 10/11/26 — L 29–32 vs San Francisco — Total 61 — Over - 10/04/26 — W 30–23 vs LA Chargers — Total 53 — Over - 09/27/26 — L 31–33 @ Washington — Total 64 — Over - 09/20/26 — W 31–7 @ Arizona — Total 38 — Under RECENT NEWS & INJURIES

——START OUTPUT——

[NFL][Week 7 — Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks] Estimated Handle N/A — October 25, 2026

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks

• Type: Regular Season
• Kick-off: 5:20 PM PDT / 8:20 PM EDT
• Venue: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington — Open Air
• Weather: Approximately 54°F, wind 2 mph, precipitation probability 51% (nearby forecast)
• Model: NFL EDGE ENGINE v3.5
• Simulation: 100,000 games, seed 7
• Status: CONDITIONAL RESEARCH RUN
• Verdict: No qualifying edge

STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes: 223.9 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

Seattle Seahawks — Sam Darnold: 234.8 Projected Passing Yards | INT N/A | TD N/A | TQBS N/A

• Patrick Mahomes: 8.02 ANY/A
• Sam Darnold: 4.67 ANY/A
• Mahomes' ANY/A is approximately 71.7% higher than Darnold's.
• Mahomes 2026 passer rating: 103.1
• Darnold 2026 passer rating: 77.4
• QB composite: Descriptive only; no independent scoring adjustment
• TQBS: N/A — passing touchdown and interception projection equations remain unspecified.

TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Kansas City Chiefs:

• Record: 5–0
• Points/Game: 28.00
• Points Allowed/Game: 16.60
• Net Offensive Yards/Game: 414.00
• Gross Passing Yards/Game: 261.80
• Rushing Yards/Game: 159.80
• Opponent Gross Passing Yards/Game: 224.00
• Opponent Rushing Yards/Game: 88.80
• Offensive Pace: 61.80 component plays/game
• Projected Scrimmage Plays: 60.90
• Projected Pass Attempts: 33.23
• Projected Rush Attempts: 27.67
• Turnover Differential: +5
• True Team Stat: N/A

Seattle Seahawks:

• Record: 3–3
• Points/Game: 24.70
• Points Allowed/Game: 20.30
• Net Offensive Yards/Game: 332.20
• Gross Passing Yards/Game: 244.80
• Rushing Yards/Game: 107.20
• Opponent Gross Passing Yards/Game: 156.80
• Opponent Rushing Yards/Game: 96.00
• Offensive Pace: 63.17 component plays/game
• Projected Scrimmage Plays: 63.38
• Projected Pass Attempts: 33.09
• Projected Rush Attempts: 30.30
• Turnover Differential: −1
• True Team Stat: N/A

TTS comparison: N/A — the supplied source does not define a complete executable True Team Stat composite. Kansas City leads in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, rushing production, and turnover differential.

PREVIOUS GAMES:

Kansas City Chiefs:

• 10/18/26 — W 22–6 vs LA Chargers — Total 28 — Under
• 10/04/26 — W 30–27 @ Las Vegas — Total 57 — Over
• 09/27/26 — W 24–10 @ Miami — Total 34 — Under
• 09/20/26 — W 33–30 vs Indianapolis — Total 63 — Over
• 09/14/26 — W 31–10 vs Denver — Total 41 — Under

Seattle Seahawks:

• 10/15/26 — L 14–17 @ Denver (OT) — Total 31 — Under
• 10/11/26 — L 29–32 vs San Francisco — Total 61 — Over
• 10/04/26 — W 30–23 vs LA Chargers — Total 53 — Over
• 09/27/26 — L 31–33 @ Washington — Total 64 — Over
• 09/20/26 — W 31–7 @ Arizona — Total 38 — Under

RECENT NEWS & INJURIES

Kansas City Chiefs:

• [ILvl HIGH] Jaylon Moore (concussion) and Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee) are OUT. Brashard Smith was subsequently placed on injured reserve. Josh Simmons and Tyquan Thornton also remain on IR.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] L'Jarius Sneed (knee) is QUESTIONABLE. Cooper McDonald was activated Saturday; Kansas City's own final report carries no game designation.
• [ILvl LOW] Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Trey Smith have no final game designation. Jaydn Ott was signed and Justin Watson elevated Saturday.

Seattle Seahawks:

• [ILvl HIGH] Zach Charbonnet, Drake Thomas, and Chazz Surratt are OUT. Elijah Arroyo and Jadarian Price are excluded through injured-reserve reconciliation.
• [ILvl MEDIUM] Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu, Connor O'Toole, and Drew Lock are QUESTIONABLE.
• [ILvl LOW] Jaxon Smith-Njigba has no game designation. Rashid Shaheed returned to full practice with no final designation. Anthony Bradford is projected to return.

Final game-day inactive lists were not confirmed in the supplied source.

WEATHER:

WVI: 0.0 — Provisional fallback

• Temperature: Approximately 54°F
• Sustained wind: Approximately 2 mph
• Precipitation probability: Approximately 51%
• Weather location: Nearby Seattle point, approximately 2.5 miles north of Lumen Field
• Wind clause: 0
• Rain clause: 0
• Cold-temperature clause: 0

WIF: 0.0

• Wind greater than 15 mph and gusty: No qualifying event in nearby forecast
• Steady rain/snow: Not established
• Significant cold-weather trigger: No
• Closed roof: No

xTD Weather Boost Index: N/A

• No independently verified exact-venue xTD Weather Boost Index is supplied.
• Kansas City TD λ: 2.0600
• Seattle TD λ: 2.4425
• Combined team TD λ: 4.5025
• No touchdown weather boost applied.

TEAM PLAYING AT HOME:

Seattle Seahawks — Yes

Raw simulation:

• Seattle: 57.76%
• Kansas City: 42.24%

Home-team adjustment:

• Additional adjustment: 0 percentage points
• Seattle: 57.76%
• Kansas City: 42.24%

Home-field advantage is already included in the adopted market-centered baseline. No duplicate home adjustment is applied.

PUBLIC FAVORITES DELTA:

• Kansas City ML: 70% tickets / 75% handle
• Seattle ML: 30% tickets / 25% handle
• Kansas City spread: 76% tickets / 55% handle
• Seattle spread: 24% tickets / 45% handle
• Over 42.5: 75% tickets / 62% handle
• Under 42.5: 25% tickets / 38% handle

• Public favorite by tickets: Kansas City Chiefs
• Market favorite by spread: Seattle Seahawks
• Seattle spread handle-minus-bets: +21 percentage points
• Kansas City ML handle-minus-bets: +5 percentage points
• Public-favorites adjustment: Not applied
• Verified reverse line movement: No
• MSI: Not triggered

GAME PREDICTIONS

1. Team to Win: Seattle Seahawks

• Raw simulation: 57.76%
• Kansas City Chiefs: 42.24%
• CF: 57.76%
• Vig-free Seattle market probability: 57.68%
• Seattle moneyline edge: +0.08 percentage points
• Kansas City moneyline edge: −0.08 percentage points
• Favorite moneyline arm: Suspended
• Underdog value threshold: Not met
• MSI: Not triggered
• Winning team prediction: Seattle Seahawks

2. Final Score Prediction:

[Seattle Seahawks logo & wallpapers - High-quality images and Seattle Seahawks screensavers in 2021](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/kQYOCORH1c3uyy95xhbPTmv_ERTEabtbGEz3VzWxbeSNqvSE9FPQPn6g87wQOix5dGf_Fs4Pob4hvRaDs6ZwirhFaLk8hQGjKZuPYnJlkpnQ-qnq0x_npzwyHoYxrxwCZ30d-5UWQj3pZGqkRbiy3J7bF4ejvvOk7qWYtg4d-Ko?purpose=inline)

Seattle Seahawks

# 23

Projected winner

[How to Watch & Listen Chiefs Games | Kansas City Chiefs - Chiefs.com](https://images.openai.com/static-rsc-4/B97enpdoHXwQGksvJ1aBINuJJLEOmcnvC--6PYGhZlAGQdXayGX0BgzEgCCQSKFPbG6jelRnpGglCQPrP8F_rqkQ6q_iJf4j34tatWGZBapJPRMitaCN1AFywqllfCSypTWRZmb7-t-pktn6dqnNSFDSzayOEROrCmN1jbefy2E?purpose=inline)

Kansas City Chiefs

# 20

Away

• Simulated average: Seattle 22.5, Kansas City 20.1
• Market-centered mean margin: Seattle +2.5
• Market-centered mean total: 42.5
• Display score margin: Seattle +3
• Display score total: 43
• Display score differs from model margin and total by 0.5 points each.
• Empty Adjustment Ledger — no independent injury, travel, pace, or weather adjustment.

2a. Moneyline Surprise:

No Moneyline Surprise projected.

• Seattle model probability: 57.76%
• Seattle vig-free market probability: 57.68%
• Kansas City model probability: 42.24%
• Kansas City vig-free market probability: 42.32%
• Kansas City dog-side edge: −0.08 percentage points
• Individual-book fixed-σ Kansas City edge readings remain below 3%.
• No qualifying underdog candidate
• MSI requirements: Not satisfied

2b. True Score Simulation (TSS):

• Simulated win probability — 100,000 games: Seattle 57.76% vs Kansas City 42.24%
• Simulated average score: Seattle 22.5, Kansas City 20.1
• Final score prediction: Seattle 23, Kansas City 20
• Most common simulation occurrences:
• Seattle 22–19 Kansas City — 0.21%
• Seattle 20–20 Kansas City — 0.21% (pre-overtime draw)
• Seattle 20–19 Kansas City — 0.21%
• Seattle 25–17 Kansas City — 0.19%
• Seattle 24–18 Kansas City — 0.19%
• P(|margin| ≥14): 29.36%
• X-7 Script Note: FIRES
• Clamp diagnostic: INERT
• Margin standard deviation: 12.7
• Total standard deviation: 13.5
• Regulation ties resolved using the model's 50/50 overtime coin flip.

3. First Team to Score: Seattle Seahawks — 53.07% CF

• Kansas City Chiefs: 46.93%
• Method: Vig-free market-based first-team-score heuristic
• No confirmed two-sided first-team-to-score market
• No qualifying first-score edge

4. Total Points: 42.5 — Over 42.5 — 50.11% CF

• Over 42.5: 50.11%
• Under 42.5: 49.89%
• Vig-free Over bar: 49.65%
• Over edge: +0.463 percentage points
• Mean game total: 42.5
• Definitional — no qualifying edge
• Weather adjustment: 0.0

Alternate total 42:

• Over: 50.11%
• Push: 2.98%
• Push-conditioned Over: 51.65%
• No independently verified information edge

5. Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 — 50.12% CF

• Seattle −2.5 cover: 49.88%
• Kansas City +2.5 cover: 50.12%
• Vig-free Seattle cover bar: 52.53%
• Seattle spread edge: −2.645 percentage points
• Kansas City spread edge: +2.645 percentage points
• Representative market spread: Seattle −2.5
• DraftKings alternate: Kansas City +3
• Kansas City +3 outright cover: 50.12%
• Kansas City +3 push: 3.21%
• Kansas City +3 push-conditioned cover: 51.78%
• Key-number 3 margin-market Lean threshold: 5%
• Definitional — no qualifying spread edge

6. FIRST TOUCHDOWN:

Kansas City Chiefs:

N/A — The source does not contain a ratified NFL regular-season first-touchdown scorer probability equation.

Market prices recorded only:

• Kenneth Walker III +400
• Xavier Worthy +1100
• Travis Kelce +1150
• Patrick Mahomes +2200
• Jalen Royals +2500
• Noah Gray +2800
• Emmett Johnson +2800
• Cyrus Allen +4000

Seattle Seahawks:

N/A — No ratified first-touchdown scorer probability method.

Market prices recorded only:

• Emanuel Wilson +575
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba +600
• AJ Barner +1300
• Rashid Shaheed +1400
• Cooper Kupp +1850
• Sam Darnold +4000
• Eric Saubert +6000

All first-touchdown prices are single-sided sportsbook references, not model probabilities. No qualifying first-TD wager.

7. ANYTIME TD MODEL:

Kansas City Chiefs:

• Kenneth Walker III — 44.70%
• Travis Kelce — 27.72%
• Xavier Worthy — 25.32%
• Patrick Mahomes — 16.32%
• Emmett Johnson — 13.50%
• Noah Gray — 11.81%
• Andrew Armstrong — 10.24%
• Jalen Royals — 6.13%
• Cyrus Allen — 4.23%
• Justin Watson — 3.89%
• Jake Briningstool — 2.32%
• Jaydn Ott — 1.18%
• Khyiris Tonga — 0.96%

Seattle Seahawks:

• Emanuel Wilson — 44.20%
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 41.44%
• George Holani — 22.08%
• Rashid Shaheed — 20.87%
• AJ Barner — 20.74%
• Cooper Kupp — 19.28%
• Sam Darnold — 9.45%
• Tory Horton — 8.16%
• Velus Jones Jr. — 3.77%
• Eric Saubert — 3.36%
• Brady Russell — 1.45%

All anytime touchdown probabilities are conditional model estimates. Player-prop recommendations remain suspended under add-on B2.

Player Breakout:

Kansas City Chiefs:

• Kenneth Walker III: 18.84 carries, 94.6 rushing yards, 4.73 targets, 31.0 receiving yards, 44.70% ATD — BRI N/A
• Travis Kelce: 7.53 targets, 5.38 receptions, 57.7 receiving yards, 27.72% ATD — BRI N/A
• Xavier Worthy: 7.22 targets, 4.57 receptions, 49.7 receiving yards, 25.32% ATD — BRI N/A
• Patrick Mahomes: 33.23 passing attempts, 223.9 passing yards, 18.5 rushing yards, 16.32% ATD — BRI N/A

Seattle Seahawks:

• Emanuel Wilson: 18.89 carries, 75.6 rushing yards, 1.31 targets, 8.6 receiving yards, 44.20% ATD — BRI N/A
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 11.52 targets, 8.20 receptions, 101.9 receiving yards, 41.44% ATD — BRI N/A
• George Holani: 6.60 carries, 27.2 rushing yards, 2.09 targets, 13.7 receiving yards, 22.08% ATD — BRI N/A
• Rashid Shaheed: 4.21 targets, 2.52 receptions, 27.2 receiving yards, 20.87% ATD — BRI N/A

BRI: N/A (SF) — Both teams meet the season-length requirement, but complete three-game usage, snap, red-zone, and role histories were not retrieved. No fully verified breakout classification is assigned.

FULL PLAYER STAT PROJECTIONS

These are conditional engine estimates. Exact historical target-share denominators, played-game volume shares, and certain prior-season rate inputs were not fully verified.

Kansas City Chiefs — Passing

• Patrick Mahomes: 33.23 ATT, CMP N/A, 223.9 gross passing yards
• Projected yards per attempt: 6.737
• Passing TD projection: N/A
• Interception projection: N/A
• Rushing: 4.40 carries, 18.5 yards

Kansas City Chiefs — Rushing

• Kenneth Walker III — 18.84 CAR, 94.6 YDS
• Patrick Mahomes — 4.40 CAR, 18.5 YDS
• Emmett Johnson — 3.62 CAR, 14.8 YDS
• Khyiris Tonga — 0.38 CAR, 1.6 YDS
• Jaydn Ott — 0.28 CAR, 1.2 YDS
• Xavier Worthy — 0.14 CAR, 0.6 YDS
• Travis Kelce — 0.01 CAR, 0.0 YDS

Kansas City Chiefs — Receiving

• Travis Kelce — 7.53 TGT, 5.38 REC, 57.7 YDS
• Xavier Worthy — 7.22 TGT, 4.57 REC, 49.7 YDS
• Kenneth Walker III — 4.73 TGT, 3.65 REC, 31.0 YDS
• Noah Gray — 2.92 TGT, 2.00 REC, 20.8 YDS
• Andrew Armstrong — 2.72 TGT, 1.71 REC, 18.8 YDS
• Emmett Johnson — 2.18 TGT, 1.72 REC, 15.5 YDS
• Jalen Royals — 1.59 TGT, 1.00 REC, 10.8 YDS
• Cyrus Allen — 1.09 TGT, 0.68 REC, 7.5 YDS
• Justin Watson — 1.00 TGT, 0.63 REC, 6.9 YDS
• Jake Briningstool — 0.54 TGT, 0.38 REC, 3.8 YDS
• Jaydn Ott — 0.20 TGT, 0.16 REC, 1.4 YDS

Seattle Seahawks — Passing

• Sam Darnold: 33.09 ATT, CMP N/A, 234.8 gross passing yards
• Projected yards per attempt: 7.098
• Passing TD projection: N/A
• Interception projection: N/A
• Rushing: 2.14 carries, 9.3 yards

Seattle Seahawks — Rushing

• Emanuel Wilson — 18.89 CAR, 75.6 YDS
• George Holani — 6.60 CAR, 27.2 YDS
• Sam Darnold — 2.14 CAR, 9.3 YDS
• Velus Jones Jr. — 1.13 CAR, 4.9 YDS
• Rashid Shaheed — 0.95 CAR, 4.2 YDS
• AJ Barner — 0.31 CAR, 1.3 YDS
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 0.28 CAR, 1.2 YDS

Seattle Seahawks — Receiving

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 11.52 TGT, 8.20 REC, 101.9 YDS
• Cooper Kupp — 4.72 TGT, 3.05 REC, 32.6 YDS
• AJ Barner — 4.44 TGT, 3.16 REC, 28.9 YDS
• Rashid Shaheed — 4.21 TGT, 2.52 REC, 27.2 YDS
• George Holani — 2.09 TGT, 1.66 REC, 13.7 YDS
• Tory Horton — 1.88 TGT, 1.17 REC, 12.5 YDS
• Emanuel Wilson — 1.31 TGT, 1.03 REC, 8.6 YDS
• Eric Saubert — 0.70 TGT, 0.49 REC, 4.5 YDS
• Brady Russell — 0.52 TGT, 0.39 REC, 3.5 YDS
• Velus Jones Jr. — 0.21 TGT, 0.16 REC, 1.4 YDS

EDGE SUMMARY

• Seattle ML: Model 57.76% vs market 57.68% — +0.08 percentage-point edge
• Kansas City ML: Model 42.24% vs market 42.32% — −0.08 percentage-point edge
• Seattle −2.5: −2.645 percentage-point edge
• Kansas City +2.5: +2.645 percentage-point edge
• Over 42.5: +0.463 percentage-point edge
• Under 42.5: −0.463 percentage-point edge
• Kansas City fixed-σ underdog readings: Below 3% across retained books
• Favorite moneyline arm: Suspended
• Weather: WVI 0.0, exact-venue forecast incomplete
• Independent team-score adjustments: None
• Player-prop recommendations: Suspended
• Declined candidate ledger row: None
• Recommended exposure: 0 units
• MODEL VERDICT: No qualifying edge.

INSIGHTS

\- Strengths: Kansas City enters undefeated at 5–0 with higher scoring production and a favorable turnover differential. Seattle has allowed fewer gross passing yards per game and remains the market favorite at home.

\- Weaknesses: Kansas City's offensive line is missing multiple tackles, and Rashee Rice is unavailable. Seattle's backfield is missing Zach Charbonnet, while several defensive players have questionable designations.

\- Winning edge: Seattle is projected to win 57.76% of simulations, but the adopted market assigns approximately the same probability. Neither team has a qualifying moneyline edge.

\- Model uncertainty: Kansas City's receiver and backfield volume allocations include assumed historical shares. Seattle's expected usage for Wilson, Holani, Smith-Njigba, and Kupp is conditional on incomplete game-by-game volume verification.

SPORTSBOOK LIABILITIES:

• Kansas City ML tickets: 70%; handle: 75%.
• Seattle ML tickets: 30%; handle: 25%.
• Kansas City spread tickets: 76%; handle: 55%.
• Seattle spread tickets: 24%; handle: 45%.
• Over tickets: 75%; handle: 62%.
• Under tickets: 25%; handle: 38%.
• Seattle's spread handle exceeds its ticket share by 21 percentage points.
• The reported split comes from DraftKings Network, not an all-sportsbook aggregation.
• Book-specific opening spreads and totals conflict.
• No verified order-level liability, reverse-line movement, or sharp-money conclusion is supported.
• No points adjustment is applied.

99.99% Parlay:

Step 1 — Highest-Confidence 5-Leg Construction

Illustrative game-only simulation legs:

• Seattle +6.5 — 76.24%
• Seattle +13.5 — 89.79%
• Over 25.5 — 89.96%
• Under 59.5 — 89.54%
• Under 66.5 — 96.19%

• Nominal legs: 5
• Effective non-nested constraints: 3
• Seattle +6.5 implies Seattle +13.5.
• Under 59.5 implies Under 66.5.
• True simulated joint probability: 60.57%
• Executable combined sportsbook price: N/A
• Expected value: N/A

Step 2 — Confidence Validation

• Actual simulated joint probability: 60.57%
• Required 99% confidence: Not met
• Required 99.99% confidence: Not met
• These are correlated outcomes in the same game.
• Individual leg probabilities must not be multiplied to claim a joint result.
• No 99% or 99.99% parlay is supported.

Raw Prediction:

Moneyline:

• Seattle — 57.76% CF
• Kansas City — 42.24% CF

Spread:

• Kansas City +2.5 — 50.12% CF
• Seattle −2.5 — 49.88% CF

Top 5 Alternate Spreads:

• Seattle +16.5 — 93.37% CF
• Seattle +13.5 — 89.79% CF
• Seattle +9.5 — 82.85% CF
• Seattle +6.5 — 76.24% CF
• Seattle +3.5 — 68.22% CF

Top 5 Alternate Totals:

• Under 62.5 — 93.06% CF
• Under 59.5 — 89.54% CF
• Under 55.5 — 83.10% CF
• Under 52.5 — 76.94% CF
• Under 49.5 — 69.77% CF

Passing Yards:

• Sam Darnold — 234.8
• Patrick Mahomes — 223.9

Rushing Yards:

• Kenneth Walker III — 94.6
• Emanuel Wilson — 75.6
• George Holani — 27.2
• Patrick Mahomes — 18.5
• Emmett Johnson — 14.8
• Sam Darnold — 9.3
• Velus Jones Jr. — 4.9
• Rashid Shaheed — 4.2
• Khyiris Tonga — 1.6
• AJ Barner — 1.3
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 1.2
• Jaydn Ott — 1.2
• Xavier Worthy — 0.6
• Travis Kelce — 0.0

Receiving Yards:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 101.9
• Travis Kelce — 57.7
• Xavier Worthy — 49.7
• Cooper Kupp — 32.6
• Kenneth Walker III — 31.0
• AJ Barner — 28.9
• Rashid Shaheed — 27.2
• Noah Gray — 20.8
• Andrew Armstrong — 18.8
• Emmett Johnson — 15.5
• George Holani — 13.7
• Tory Horton — 12.5
• Jalen Royals — 10.8
• Emanuel Wilson — 8.6
• Cyrus Allen — 7.5
• Justin Watson — 6.9
• Eric Saubert — 4.5
• Jake Briningstool — 3.8
• Brady Russell — 3.5
• Jaydn Ott — 1.4
• Velus Jones Jr. — 1.4

Anytime Touchdown:

• Kenneth Walker III — 44.70%
• Emanuel Wilson — 44.20%
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 41.44%
• Travis Kelce — 27.72%
• Xavier Worthy — 25.32%
• George Holani — 22.08%
• Rashid Shaheed — 20.87%
• AJ Barner — 20.74%
• Cooper Kupp — 19.28%
• Patrick Mahomes — 16.32%
• Emmett Johnson — 13.50%
• Noah Gray — 11.81%
• Andrew Armstrong — 10.24%
• Sam Darnold — 9.45%
• Tory Horton — 8.16%
• Jalen Royals — 6.13%
• Cyrus Allen — 4.23%
• Justin Watson — 3.89%
• Velus Jones Jr. — 3.77%
• Eric Saubert — 3.36%
• Jake Briningstool — 2.32%
• Brady Russell — 1.45%
• Jaydn Ott — 1.18%
• Khyiris Tonga — 0.96%

Prediction Confidence Notice:

• All percentages are source-model estimates, not artificially increased confidence levels.
• Game forecast is market-anchored and contains no independent point adjustment.
• Player projections rely on conditional prior-share and usage assumptions.
• Exact-venue weather input and portions of the historical player dataset remain incomplete.
• Player props remain suspended under add-on B2.
• Source ledger snapshot was validated, but no canonical shared-project writeback occurred.
• No qualifying wager or parlay is recommended.

No qualifying edge.

——END OUTPUT——