Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs BYU Cougars Prediction & Betting Pick

——START OUTPUT——

NCAAWeek 7 — No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ No. 8 BYU Cougars N/A Estimated Handle — October 17, 2026

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs BYU Cougars

• Type: NCAA Regular Season — FBS vs FBS, Non-Conference
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Kick-off: 4:30 PM PDT / 5:30 PM MDT / 7:30 PM EDT
• Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah — Open Air
• Broadcast: ABC — College GameDay in Provo
• Weather: Sunny, approximately 65–71°F, west-southwest wind 5 mph, approximately 1% precipitation
• Market Spread: Notre Dame −10.5 / BYU +10.5
• Market Total: 46.5
• Moneyline: Notre Dame −400 to −425 / BYU +310 to +325 at the six anchor books
• Model Verdict: No qualifying edge.
• Simulation: 100,000 games, seed 7
• Model: NCAA Edge Engine v3.5, Part 17
• Data Status: Eight-book odds board; six-book moneyline anchor; final injury reports unavailable; player prop markets incomplete.
• RCF: FALSE — both starting quarterbacks are healthy and established.
• Ledger Status: NOT WRITTEN — source reports that the project ledger could not be staged; no project file was updated.

STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish — CJ Carr

• Projected Passing Yards: 229.2
• Projected Passing Attempts: 26.68
• Projected Completions: 18.74
• Projected Gross Yards/Attempt: 8.591
• Projected Rushing Attempts: 5.72
• Projected Rushing Yards: 24.6
• Projected Passing TD: N/A
• Projected INT: N/A
• TQBS: N/A — required projected passing touchdown and interception components unavailable.
• 2026 Season Passing Attempts: 144
• 2026 Completion Rate: 70.8%
• Season Gross Yards/Attempt: 9.57
• Season Passing Touchdowns: 16
• Season Interceptions: 1
• 2025 Passing Attempts: 293
• 2025 Gross Yards/Attempt: 9.36
• 2025 Passing Touchdowns: 24
• 2025 Interceptions: 6
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Rate Blend Weight: 0.661
• Starting Status: Healthy and expected to start.

BYU Cougars — Bear Bachmeier

• Projected Passing Yards: 180.3
• Projected Passing Attempts: 23.62
• Projected Completions: 15.48
• Projected Gross Yards/Attempt: 7.631
• Projected Rushing Attempts: 15.49
• Projected Rushing Yards: 61.1
• Projected Passing TD: N/A
• Projected INT: N/A
• TQBS: N/A — required projected passing touchdown and interception components unavailable.
• 2026 Season Passing Attempts: 116
• 2026 Completion Rate: 66.4%
• Season Gross Yards/Attempt: 8.91
• Season Passing Touchdowns: 8
• Season Interceptions: 1
• Season Rushing Yards: 239
• Season Rushing Touchdowns: 4
• 2025 Passing Attempts: 387
• 2025 Gross Yards/Attempt: 7.84
• 2025 Passing Touchdowns: 15
• 2025 Interceptions: 7
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Passing Rate Blend Weight: 0.721
• Starting Status: Healthy and expected to start.

QB Comparison:

• Carr projects for 48.9 more passing yards than Bachmeier.
• Carr’s modeled passing yardage is approximately 27.1% higher.
• Carr has the higher current-season completion rate, 70.8% versus 66.4%.
• Carr has the higher current-season passing efficiency, 9.57 versus 8.91 Y/A.
• Carr leads in passing touchdowns, 16 versus 8.
• Both quarterbacks have thrown only one interception in 2026.
• Bachmeier provides substantially more modeled rushing volume.
• Bachmeier’s 15.49 modeled carries and four season rushing touchdowns demonstrate the importance of his rushing role, although his touchdown probability is limited by the NCAA quarterback role weighting.
• TQBS Comparison: N/A.
• Projected Passing Advantage: Notre Dame — CJ Carr.
• Projected Quarterback Rushing Advantage: BYU — Bear Bachmeier.

——START OUTPUT——

NCAAWeek 7 — No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ No. 8 BYU Cougars N/A Estimated Handle — October 17, 2026

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs BYU Cougars

• Type: NCAA Regular Season — FBS vs FBS, Non-Conference
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Kick-off: 4:30 PM PDT / 5:30 PM MDT / 7:30 PM EDT
• Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah — Open Air
• Broadcast: ABC — College GameDay in Provo
• Weather: Sunny, approximately 65–71°F, west-southwest wind 5 mph, approximately 1% precipitation
• Market Spread: Notre Dame −10.5 / BYU +10.5
• Market Total: 46.5
• Moneyline: Notre Dame −400 to −425 / BYU +310 to +325 at the six anchor books
• Model Verdict: No qualifying edge.
• Simulation: 100,000 games, seed 7
• Model: NCAA Edge Engine v3.5, Part 17
• Data Status: Eight-book odds board; six-book moneyline anchor; final injury reports unavailable; player prop markets incomplete.
• RCF: FALSE — both starting quarterbacks are healthy and established.
• Ledger Status: NOT WRITTEN — source reports that the project ledger could not be staged; no project file was updated.

STARTING QB COMPOSITE SCORE:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish — CJ Carr

• Projected Passing Yards: 229.2
• Projected Passing Attempts: 26.68
• Projected Completions: 18.74
• Projected Gross Yards/Attempt: 8.591
• Projected Rushing Attempts: 5.72
• Projected Rushing Yards: 24.6
• Projected Passing TD: N/A
• Projected INT: N/A
• TQBS: N/A — required projected passing touchdown and interception components unavailable.
• 2026 Season Passing Attempts: 144
• 2026 Completion Rate: 70.8%
• Season Gross Yards/Attempt: 9.57
• Season Passing Touchdowns: 16
• Season Interceptions: 1
• 2025 Passing Attempts: 293
• 2025 Gross Yards/Attempt: 9.36
• 2025 Passing Touchdowns: 24
• 2025 Interceptions: 6
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Rate Blend Weight: 0.661
• Starting Status: Healthy and expected to start.

BYU Cougars — Bear Bachmeier

• Projected Passing Yards: 180.3
• Projected Passing Attempts: 23.62
• Projected Completions: 15.48
• Projected Gross Yards/Attempt: 7.631
• Projected Rushing Attempts: 15.49
• Projected Rushing Yards: 61.1
• Projected Passing TD: N/A
• Projected INT: N/A
• TQBS: N/A — required projected passing touchdown and interception components unavailable.
• 2026 Season Passing Attempts: 116
• 2026 Completion Rate: 66.4%
• Season Gross Yards/Attempt: 8.91
• Season Passing Touchdowns: 8
• Season Interceptions: 1
• Season Rushing Yards: 239
• Season Rushing Touchdowns: 4
• 2025 Passing Attempts: 387
• 2025 Gross Yards/Attempt: 7.84
• 2025 Passing Touchdowns: 15
• 2025 Interceptions: 7
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Passing Rate Blend Weight: 0.721
• Starting Status: Healthy and expected to start.

QB Comparison:

• Carr projects for 48.9 more passing yards than Bachmeier.
• Carr’s modeled passing yardage is approximately 27.1% higher.
• Carr has the higher current-season completion rate, 70.8% versus 66.4%.
• Carr has the higher current-season passing efficiency, 9.57 versus 8.91 Y/A.
• Carr leads in passing touchdowns, 16 versus 8.
• Both quarterbacks have thrown only one interception in 2026.
• Bachmeier provides substantially more modeled rushing volume.
• Bachmeier’s 15.49 modeled carries and four season rushing touchdowns demonstrate the importance of his rushing role, although his touchdown probability is limited by the NCAA quarterback role weighting.
• TQBS Comparison: N/A.
• Projected Passing Advantage: Notre Dame — CJ Carr.
• Projected Quarterback Rushing Advantage: BYU — Bear Bachmeier.

TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• Record: 6-0
• National Ranking: AP No. 2
• Points Per Game: 44.0
• Points Allowed Per Game: 11.0
• Offensive Yards Per Play: 6.87
• Opponent Yards Per Play: 4.08
• Opponent Passing Yards Per Game: 155.8
• Opponent Passing Yards Per Attempt: 6.32
• Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game: 58.3
• Opponent Rushing Yards Per Carry: 2.10
• Projected POS: 28.5 points
• Offensive Pace: 66.50 plays/game
• Opponent Pace: 52.50 plays/game
• Projected Matchup Pace: 62.65 plays
• Offensive Plays, Season Total: 399
• Giveaways: 1
• Takeaways: 14
• Turnover Differential: +13
• Interceptions Forced: 7
• Fumble Recoveries: 7
• Fumbles Lost: 0
• True Team Stat: N/A — required full calculation inputs unavailable.

BYU Cougars:

• Record: 5-0
• National Ranking: AP No. 8
• Points Per Game: 34.6
• Points Allowed Per Game: 13.4
• Offensive Yards Per Play: 7.10
• Opponent Yards Per Play: 4.33
• Opponent Passing Yards Per Game: 174.0
• Opponent Passing Yards Per Attempt: 5.54
• Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game: 80.4
• Opponent Rushing Yards Per Carry: 2.93
• Projected POS: 18.0 points
• Offensive Pace: 61.00 plays/game
• Opponent Pace: 58.80 plays/game
• Projected Matchup Pace: 56.75 plays
• Offensive Plays, Season Total: 305
• Giveaways: 3
• Takeaways: 7
• Turnover Differential: +4
• Interceptions Forced: 6
• Fumble Recoveries: 1
• Fumbles Lost: 1
• True Team Stat: N/A — required full calculation inputs unavailable.

TTS Comparison:

• N/A — complete True Team Stat inputs were not supplied in the required calculation form.
• Notre Dame scores 9.4 more points per game than BYU.
• Notre Dame allows 2.4 fewer points per game.
• BYU averages 0.23 more offensive yards per play.
• Notre Dame allows 0.25 fewer yards per defensive play.
• Notre Dame allows 18.2 fewer passing yards per game.
• Notre Dame allows 22.1 fewer rushing yards per game.
• Notre Dame has a nine-turnover differential advantage.
• Both teams enter undefeated.
• Passing Opponent Factor: 1.000 for both teams because the FBS national passing mean was not retrieved.
• The source notes that the unadjusted passing factor may be generous to both offenses against two strong defenses.
• Rushing Opponent Adjustment: Printed for context, not applied to player rates.

PREVIOUS GAMES:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• 10/10/26 — W 58-7 vs Stanford — Total 65 — Over 55.5 — ATS Win (−39.5)
• 10/03/26 — W 37-26 @ North Carolina — Total 63 — Over 46.5 — ATS Loss (−21.5)
• 09/26/26 — W 49-10 @ Purdue — Total 59 — Over 57.5 — ATS Win (−27.5)
• 09/19/26 — W 27-10 vs Michigan State — Total 37 — Under 51.5 — ATS Loss (−28.5)
• 09/12/26 — W 52-0 vs Rice — Total 52 — Under 54.5 — ATS Win (−44.5)

BYU Cougars:

• 10/09/26 — W 24-10 vs Iowa State — Total 34 — Under 46.5 — ATS Win (−11.5)
• 10/03/26 — W 17-10 @ TCU — Total 27 — Under 49.5 — ATS Win (−3.5)
• 09/19/26 — W 41-23 @ Colorado State — Total 64 — Over 54.5 — ATS Win (−17.5)
• 09/12/26 — W 28-17 vs Arizona — Total 45 — Under 49.5 — ATS Win (−7.0)
• 09/05/26 — W 63-7 vs Utah Tech — Total 70 — Over 61.5 — ATS Loss (−51.5)

Recent Form:

• Notre Dame: 5-0 last five.
• BYU: 5-0 last five.
• Notre Dame ATS: 3-2 last five using the supplied FOX lines.
• BYU ATS: 4-1 last five using the supplied FOX lines.
• Notre Dame: Three Overs and two Unders.
• BYU: Two Overs and three Unders.
• Notre Dame has scored 27 or more points in all five listed games.
• BYU has allowed 23 or fewer points in all five listed games.
• Notre Dame has held three of its previous five opponents to 10 points or fewer.
• BYU has held its previous two opponents to 10 points each.
• Some historical FOX closing lines differ from the project’s ledger; those differences are not used for model adjustments.

Head-to-Head:

• Last Listed Meeting: October 8, 2022, in Las Vegas.
• Notre Dame reportedly won 28-20.
• The source notes ambiguity in the FOX head-to-head rendering.
• Historical meeting is contextual only.
• No head-to-head model adjustment applied.

RECENT NEWS & INJURIES

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• ILvl HIGH OL Charles Jagusah — OUT: Offensive-line absence.
• ILvl HIGH OL Chris Terek — OUT: Additional offensive-line absence.
• ILvl HIGH S Brauntae Johnson — OUT: Secondary absence.
• ILvl MEDIUM DL Christopher Burgess Jr. — OUT
• ILvl MEDIUM DL Tiki Hola — OUT
• ILvl MEDIUM CB Chaz Smith — OUT: Season-long absence.
• ILvl MEDIUM WR Quincy Porter — OUT: Season-long absence, reported September 28.
• ILvl MEDIUM CB Leonard Moore — QUESTIONABLE: Concussion; reported to be trending toward playing.
• ILvl MEDIUM DT Jason Onye — QUESTIONABLE: Ankle; reported to be trending toward playing.
• ILvl LOW LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa — AVAILABLE: No longer listed on the supplied injury report.
• ILvl LOW QB CJ Carr: Healthy, expected starter.
• ILvl MEDIUM RB Rotation: Jonaz Walton, Aneyas Williams and Nolan James Jr. share the backfield.
• ILvl LOW RB Jeremiyah Love: No longer part of the 2026 team roster and not included in projections.

BYU Cougars:

• ILvl HIGH RB LJ Martin — OUT: Reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year; 344 rushing yards at 7.8 YPC in 2026. Expected absence of four to six weeks.
• ILvl HIGH OT Andrew Gentry — OUT: Offensive-line absence.
• ILvl MEDIUM LB/Rover Isaiah Glasker — UNCERTAIN: Coach has not ruled out a return.
• ILvl MEDIUM RB Sione Moa — UNCERTAIN: Cleared but still under evaluation.
• ILvl MEDIUM S Raider Damuni — UNCERTAIN: Possible availability.
• ILvl MEDIUM LB Siale Esera — EXPECTED: Expected to play.
• ILvl MEDIUM Nickel Canon DeVries — EXPECTED: Expected to play.
• ILvl LOW QB Bear Bachmeier: Healthy, expected starter.
• ILvl MEDIUM Rushing Usage: Bachmeier led BYU in rushing in the previous two games.

Injury Model Impact:

• RCF: FALSE.
• Baseline Margin σ: 13.5
• Applied Margin σ: 13.5
• Total σ: 13.5
• LJ Martin and Andrew Gentry are excluded from the active projection set.
• Confirmed Notre Dame OUT players are excluded.
• Questionable and uncertain players are provisionally retained at full share under the supplied degraded-data procedure.
• No independent injury adjustment is applied to the market-anchored spread.
• Martin’s absence is considered publicly known and priced.
• Notre Dame’s reported defensive returns are considered publicly known.
• Availability Limitation: The latest Notre Dame report was from Monday, October 12, supplemented by October 14 reporting. BYU’s information comes from coach statements and depth-chart reporting.
• Final Friday injury designations were not found in the source run.

WEATHER:

WVI: 0.0 — No Adjustment

• Source: FOX Weather, Provo.
• Forecast Captured: October 16, 2026.
• Kickoff Temperature: Approximately 65–71°F
• FOX Game Module Temperature: 65°F
• Wind Direction: WSW
• Sustained Wind: Approximately 5 mph
• Precipitation Probability: Approximately 1%
• Conditions: Sunny into the evening.
• Sunset: Approximately 6:43 PM MDT
• Wind Clause: 0
• Gust Clause: 0
• Rain Clause: 0
• Temperature Clause: 0
• Computed WVI: 0.0
• Applied WVI: 0.0

Weather Market Adjustment:

• Early Referenced Total: 47.5
• Current Total: 46.5
• Total Movement: Down 1 point from the adopted October 13 reference.
• Model Total Before Weather: 46.5
• Weather Adjustment: 0.0
• Adjusted Model Total: 46.5
• Weather ENTRY: None.
• P1 Weather Permission: Not applicable because no weather clause qualifies.
• Direct NWS Forecast: Not retrieved.
• VegasInsider’s conflicting 54.5 opening total was discarded as the opener.

WIF: N/A — Not computed in source.

• Wind Above 15 mph and Gusty: No.
• Steady Rain/Snow: No.
• High-Temperature Clause: No.
• Closed Roof: No.

xTD Weather Boost Index: N/A — Not computed in source.

• Temperature Boost: N/A.
• Wind Boost: N/A.
• Roof/FieldTurf Boost: N/A.
• Humidity Boost: N/A.
• xTD Boost Classification: N/A.

TEAM PLAYING AT HOME:

BYU Cougars — Yes

• Home Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium.
• Home-field advantage is already reflected in the market line used by the NCAA engine.
• Additional Home-Field Adjustment: 0 percentage points.
• Raw Simulation: Notre Dame 78.31% / BYU 21.69%.
• Final Model Probability: Notre Dame 78.31% / BYU 21.69%.
• RCF: FALSE.
• No additional 4-percentage-point home adjustment is applied because the supplied NCAA engine already incorporates home field through the market anchor.

PUBLIC FAVORITES DELTA:

BYU Cougars — Majority of Reported Spread Tickets

• Market Favorite: Notre Dame.
• Opening Spread References: Notre Dame −12.5 / −11.5.
• Current Modal Spread: Notre Dame −10.5.
• Net Spread Movement: Approximately 1–2 points toward BYU.
• Notre Dame Spread Ticket Share: 36%.
• BYU Spread Ticket Share: 64%.
• Source: TheSpread, October 17.
• Notre Dame Spread Handle: N/A
• BYU Spread Handle: N/A
• Public Money Percentage: UNEVALUABLE.
• Most of the observed spread movement aligns with BYU’s ticket majority.
• TheSpread reports a more recent half-point movement toward Notre Dame.
• Reverse Line Movement: Ambiguous, not confirmed.
• Verified 90%+ Public-Money Trigger: Not established.
• Public Favorite Adjustment: Not applied.
• Market Exposure Conclusion: Insufficient verified handle data.

GAME PREDICTIONS

1. Team to Win: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Raw Simulation: 78.31%
• BYU Raw Simulation: 21.69%
• Notre Dame Vig-Free Market Probability: 77.111%
• BYU Vig-Free Market Probability: 22.889%
• Notre Dame Favorite-Arm Edge: Approximately +1.21 percentage points.
• BYU Dog-Arm Edge: Approximately −1.21 percentage points.
• RCF: FALSE.
• Simulated Margin σ: 13.5
• CF: 78.3%
• MSI: Not triggered.
• BYU Dog-ML Edge: Negative at the anchor.
• Fixed-σ Candidate Threshold: 3%.
• Notre Dame Favorite-Arm Edge: Below threshold.
• Maximum Notre Dame Live Edge: +1.68%.
• Qualifying Moneyline Bet: None.
• Projected Winner: Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

2. Final Score Prediction:

NOTRE DAME

28

–

BYU

18

PROJECTED FINAL · NOTRE DAME WIN

• Predicted Winner: Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
• Predicted Margin: Notre Dame +10
• Predicted Total: 46 points
• Simulated Average: Notre Dame 28.5, BYU 18.1
• Model Mean Margin: Notre Dame +10.5
• Model Mean Total: 46.5
• Market Spread: Notre Dame −10.5
• Market Total: 46.5
• Score Consistency: PASS — within ±2 of the modeled margin and total.
• This is a presentation score based on the market-anchored distribution, not an independent betting signal.

2a. Moneyline Surprise:

No Moneyline Surprise Projected — Model and Market Agree on Notre Dame.

• Notre Dame Raw Model Probability: 78.31%
• Notre Dame Vig-Free Market Probability: 77.111%
• BYU Raw Model Probability: 21.69%
• BYU Vig-Free Market Probability: 22.889%
• Notre Dame Favorite-Side Edge: +1.21 percentage points.
• BYU Dog-Side Edge: −1.21 percentage points.
• Favorite-Arm Minimum Edge: 3%.
• Dog-Arm Minimum Edge: 3%.
• MSI Threshold: 6%.
• None of these thresholds is satisfied.
• Hard Rock’s discarded moneyline would have produced a +3.57% Notre Dame reading, but its odds row failed the market outlier/content screen.
• Discarded prices do not qualify.
• No qualifying moneyline surprise.

2b. True Score Simulation (TSS):

100,000 Simulated Games

• Notre Dame Win Probability: 78.31%
• BYU Win Probability: 21.69%
• Simulated Draw Probability After Overtime Resolution: 0.000%
• Underlying Regulation Tie Probability: 2.13%, allocated through the overtime coin-flip model.
• Simulated Average Score: Notre Dame 28.5, BYU 18.1
• Model Margin Input: Notre Dame +10.5
• Model Total Input: 46.5
• σ_margin: 13.5
• σ_total: 13.5
• RCF: FALSE
• Simulation Seed: 7

Most Common Simulated Scores:

• Notre Dame 26-18 BYU — 0.21%
• Notre Dame 28-17 BYU — 0.20%
• Notre Dame 30-16 BYU — 0.19%
• Notre Dame 26-20 BYU — 0.19%
• Notre Dame 26-17 BYU — 0.19%

Simulation Diagnostics:

• P(|margin| ≥14): 44.8%
• X-7 Script Note: FIRES.
• Notre Dame Passing-Volume Risk: Down if leading by a substantial margin.
• BYU Passing-Volume Risk: Up if trailing.
• Backup Snap Risk: Present in large-margin scenarios.
• NCAA Prop σ Widening: +15%.
• Clamp Diagnostic: INERT.
• Over Probability Unclamped: 50.10%.
• Over Probability Clamped: 50.14%.
• Clamp Shift: +0.04 percentage points.
• Moneyline Artifact: +0.0000
• BYU Scoring Floor Mass: 3.31%.
• Shutouts Among Most Common Score Modes: 0.

Alternative Spreads — True Notre Dame Cover Probabilities:

• Notre Dame +6.5 — 89.7%
• Notre Dame +2.5 — 83.2%
• Notre Dame −0.5 — 77.2%
• Notre Dame −3.5 — 69.9%
• Notre Dame −6.5 — 61.7%
• Notre Dame −7.5 — 58.7%
• Notre Dame −9.5 — 52.8%
• Notre Dame −10.5 — 49.9%
• Notre Dame −13.5 — 41.0%
• Notre Dame −14.5 — 38.1%
• Notre Dame −17.5 — 29.9%
• Notre Dame −21.5 — 20.4%

Alternative Totals — True Over Probabilities:

• Over 36.5 — 77.4%
• Over 39.5 — 69.9%
• Over 42.5 — 61.9%
• Over 44.5 — 56.0%
• Over 46.5 — 50.1%
• Over 48.5 — 44.2%
• Over 51.5 — 35.7%
• Over 54.5 — 27.7%
• Over 57.5 — 20.8%

Projected Team Totals:

• Notre Dame: 28.5 points
• BYU: 18.0 points

Key-Number Diagnostics:

• Market Spread: Notre Dame −10.5
• Model Mean Margin: Notre Dame +10.5
• P(Margin Exactly 10): 2.99%
• P(Margin Exactly 7): 2.96%
• P(Margin Exactly 14): 2.85%
• Spread Classification: Definitional.
• No qualifying spread edge.

3. First Team to Score: Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 60.84% CF

• Notre Dame: Approximately 60.84%
• BYU: Approximately 39.16%
• Formula: 0.5 + 0.4 × (0.7711 − 0.5).
• Market Price: N/A
• First-Team-to-Score Betting Edge: N/A.
• Projected First Scoring Team: Notre Dame.
• Qualifying Bet: None.

4. Total Points: 46.5 — Over 46.5 — 50.14% CF

• Over 46.5: 50.14%
• Under 46.5: 49.86%
• Model Total: 46.5
• Market Total: 46.5
• Applied WVI: 0.0
• Vig-Free Under Market Probability: 49.77%
• Under Edge: +0.09 percentage points.
• Over Edge: Approximately −0.09 percentage points.
• Required Threshold: 3%.
• Classification: Definitional because μ_total equals the market total.
• Clamp Diagnostic: INERT.
• No qualifying total edge.

Sportsbook Total Board:

• bet365 — 46.5, Over −111 / Under −109.
• BetMGM — 46.5, Over −108 / Under −110.
• DraftKings — 46.5, Over −112 / Under −108.
• Caesars — 46.5, Over −110 / Under −109.
• FanDuel — 46.5, Over −110 / Under −110.
• Fanatics — 46.5, Over −115 / Under −105.
• BetRivers — 46.5, Over −112 / Under −112.
• Modal Total: 46.5 at all seven reporting books.
• Early Reference Total: 47.5
• Current Total: 46.5
• Market Movement: Down approximately 1 point from the adopted reference.
• Weather WVI: 0.0
• Official Recommendation: NO BET.

5. Point Spread: BYU +10.5 — 50.14% CF

• Notre Dame −10.5 Cover: 49.86%
• BYU +10.5 Cover: 50.14%
• Market Favorite: Notre Dame −10.5
• Model Margin: Notre Dame +10.5
• Notre Dame Vig-Free Cover Bar: Approximately 50.03%.
• Notre Dame Spread Edge: Approximately −0.17 percentage points.
• BYU Spread Edge: Approximately +0.17 percentage points.
• Model Margin Equals Market Spread.
• Classification: Definitional.
• Required Betting Threshold: 3%.
• No qualifying spread edge.

BetRivers Alternate Main Spread:

• Notre Dame −11
• BYU +11
• Closed-Form Notre Dame Cover Probability: 48.52%.
• Classification: Definitional territory.
• No qualifying spread play.

6. FIRST TOUCHDOWN:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• N/A — first-touchdown scorer probabilities are unavailable under the supplied NCAA SF gate.
• Verified First-TD Market: N/A.
• Qualified First-TD Predictions: None.
• Highest Expected Named-Player TD λ: Jordan Faison.
• Faison’s Anytime TD Probability: 36.1%.
• Anytime TD probability does not equal first-touchdown probability.

BYU Cougars:

• N/A — first-touchdown scorer probabilities are unavailable under the supplied NCAA SF gate.
• Verified First-TD Market: N/A.
• Qualified First-TD Predictions: None.
• Highest Expected Named-Player TD λ: Legend Glasker.
• Glasker’s Anytime TD Probability: 26.7%.
• Anytime TD probability does not equal first-touchdown probability.

7. ANYTIME TD MODEL:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• Jordan Faison (WR) — 36.1%
• Micah Gilbert (WR) — 31.8%
• Cooper Flanagan (TE) — 23.2%
• Jaden Greathouse (WR) — 22.1%
• Nolan James Jr. (RB) — 20.9%
• Aneyas Williams (RB) — 20.6%
• CJ Carr (QB) — 13.0%
• Jonaz Walton (RB) — 10.9%
• Flanigan — N/A individually; among 13 additional players with modeled TD probabilities ranging from 0.4% to 6.5%.
• Graham — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Larsen — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Bettis — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Burress — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Washington — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Jeffery — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Fitzgerald — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Premer — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Saldate — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Osborne — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Young — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Robinson — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.

BYU Cougars:

• Legend Glasker (WR) — 26.7%
• Kyler Kasper (WR) — 23.3%
• Walker Lyons (TE) — 19.4%
• Preston Rex (RB) — 16.4%
• Jojo Phillips (WR) — 14.7%
• Bear Bachmeier (QB) — 9.2%
• Journee Tonga (RB) — 8.9%
• Saleapaga — N/A individually; among 11 additional players with modeled TD probabilities ranging from 0.4% to 5.2%.
• Frischknecht — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• T. Bachmeier — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Eka — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Nead — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Esplin — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Sione Moa — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Saryon — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Miska — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Payne — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.
• Bourguet — N/A individually; within the same modeled range.

Anytime Touchdown Diagnostics:

• Notre Dame Expected Team TD λ: 2.8500
• Notre Dame Named Player λ: 2.4225
• Notre Dame FIELD λ: 0.4275
• BYU Expected Team TD λ: 1.8000
• BYU Named Player λ: 1.5300
• BYU FIELD λ: 0.2700
• Named-Player Allocation: 85% of team λ.
• FIELD Allocation: 15%.
• Player Weights: Assumed NCAA snap-share and positional-role weights.
• Notre Dame Highest TD Probability: Jordan Faison, 36.1%.
• BYU Highest TD Probability: Legend Glasker, 26.7%.
• Combined Highest TD Probability: Jordan Faison, 36.1%.
• Bachmeier Rushing-QB Limitation: Four rushing touchdowns in 2026 and 15.49 projected carries, but the standard 0.3 QB role weight produces only a 9.2% modeled ATD probability.
• Individual probabilities for the additional players were not provided in the pasted report.
• Verified Sportsbook Anytime TD Prices: N/A.
• Anytime TD Betting Verdict: No qualifying plays; no verified market prices.
• All probabilities are model outputs, not sportsbook-implied values.

Player Breakout:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• CJ Carr: 26.68 passing attempts, 229.2 passing yards, 5.72 rushing attempts, 24.6 rushing yards, 13.0% ATD — BRI N/A.
• Jordan Faison: 6.68 receptions, 83.8 receiving yards, 36.1% ATD — BRI N/A.
• Aneyas Williams: 10.37 carries, 44.6 rushing yards, 0.99 receptions, 20.6% ATD — BRI N/A.
• Nolan James Jr.: 9.24 carries, 39.7 rushing yards, 1.23 receptions, 20.9% ATD — BRI N/A.

BYU Cougars:

• Bear Bachmeier: 23.62 passing attempts, 180.3 passing yards, 15.49 rushing attempts, 61.1 rushing yards, 9.2% ATD — BRI N/A.
• Legend Glasker: 3.61 receptions, 42.0 receiving yards, 1.87 carries, 26.7% ATD — BRI N/A.
• Kyler Kasper: 2.66 receptions, 31.0 receiving yards, 23.3% ATD — BRI N/A.
• Walker Lyons: 2.47 receptions, 28.8 receiving yards, 19.4% ATD — BRI N/A.

BRI: N/A (SF)

• Notre Dame has played six games.
• BYU has played five games.
• Both teams satisfy the four-game eligibility threshold.
• Required recent individual game logs were not retrieved.
• Player breakout classifications cannot be reliably computed.

FULL PLAYER STAT PROJECTIONS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Passing

CJ Carr (QB)

• Projected Attempts: 26.68
• Projected Completions: 18.74
• Projected Completion Percentage: Approximately 70.2%
• Gross Passing Yards: 229.2
• Projected Gross Yards/Attempt: 8.591
• Projected Net Passing: N/A
• Projected Sacks: N/A
• Passing Touchdowns: N/A
• Interceptions: N/A
• Rushing Attempts: 5.72
• Rushing Yards: 24.6
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Passing Source: Notre Dame, 2025.
• Historical Passing Attempts: 293
• Historical Gross Yards/Attempt: 9.36
• Historical Rate Blend Weight: 0.661
• BYU Opponent Passing Factor: 1.000
• Final Passing Rate: 8.591 Y/A
• Weather Passing Adjustment: None.
• Passing Prop Line: N/A
• Qualifying Passing Prop: None.

Notre Dame Team Passing:

• Projected Offensive Plays: 62.65
• Projected Pass Rate: 42.59%
• Projected Passing Attempts: 26.68
• Projected Completions: 18.74
• Projected Gross Passing Yards: 229.2
• Projected Net Passing: N/A
• Projected Sacks: N/A
• Passing TD Projection: N/A
• Interception Projection: N/A
• Current-Season Team Passing Rate: 42.11%
• Historical Team Passing Rate: 42.95%
• Current-Season Blend Weight: 0.4286

Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Rushing

• Aneyas Williams (RB) — 10.37 CAR, 44.6 YDS
• Nolan James Jr. (RB) — 9.24 CAR, 39.7 YDS
• Jonaz Walton (RB) — 7.47 CAR, 32.1 YDS
• CJ Carr (QB) — 5.72 CAR, 24.6 YDS
• Other Notre Dame ball-carriers — Remaining projected carries and yards included in the team total; individual breakdown not supplied.

Notre Dame Rushing Summary:

• Projected Team Carries: 35.97
• Projected Team Rushing Yards: 154.7
• Highest Projected Rusher: Aneyas Williams.
• Highest Projected Rushing Yards: 44.6
• Williams Modeled Carry Share: 15.63% of the source share basis.
• James Modeled Carry Share: 13.92%.
• Walton Modeled Carry Share: 11.26%.
• Carr Modeled Carry Share: 8.62%.
• Williams Projected YPC: 4.30
• James Projected YPC: 4.30
• Walton Projected YPC: 4.30
• Carr Projected YPC: 4.30
• Notre Dame Current Team YPC: 5.06
• BYU Opponent YPC Allowed: 2.93
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 3, league-average fallback for the listed backs.
• Historical Carry Eligibility: None of the listed running backs reached the 100-carry tier gate.
• Model Limitation: The uniform 4.3 YPC fallback sits below Notre Dame’s 2026 team rushing efficiency.
• Rushing Prop Lines: N/A.
• Qualifying Rushing Props: None.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Receiving

• Jordan Faison (WR) — 6.68 REC, 83.8 YDS
• Micah Gilbert (WR) — 2.69 REC, 32.4 YDS
• Jaden Greathouse (WR) — 1.46 REC, 17.6 YDS
• Cooper Flanagan (TE) — 0.74 REC, receiving yards N/A individually.
• Nolan James Jr. (RB) — 1.23 REC, receiving yards N/A individually.
• Aneyas Williams (RB) — 0.99 REC, receiving yards N/A individually.
• Jonaz Walton (RB) — 0.49 REC, receiving yards N/A individually.
• Other Notre Dame receivers — Individual receiving yards not provided; included in the normalized team passing total.

Notre Dame Receiving Summary:

• Projected Team Completions: 18.74
• Projected Team Receiving Yards: 229.2
• Highest Projected Receiver: Jordan Faison.
• Highest Projected Receiving Yards: 83.8
• Faison Modeled Reception Share: 23.07% of the source share basis.
• Gilbert Modeled Reception Share: 9.27%.
• Greathouse Modeled Reception Share: 5.05%.
• Faison Blended Receiving Rate: 11.682 Y/REC
• Gilbert Default Receiving Rate: 11.231 Y/REC
• Greathouse Default Receiving Rate: 11.231 Y/REC
• Faison Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Faison 2025 Receptions: 49
• Faison Historical Rate Blend Weight: 0.246
• Receiving Yardage Scaling Factor: 1.074
• Receiving Targets: N/A — NCAA target-volume data unavailable.
• Receiving Prop Lines: N/A.
• Receiving Yardage Closure: PASS — modeled receiving yardage equals team gross passing yardage after normalization.

BYU Cougars — Passing

Bear Bachmeier (QB)

• Projected Attempts: 23.62
• Projected Completions: 15.48
• Projected Completion Percentage: Approximately 65.5%
• Gross Passing Yards: 180.3
• Projected Gross Yards/Attempt: 7.631
• Projected Net Passing: N/A
• Projected Sacks: N/A
• Passing Touchdowns: N/A
• Interceptions: N/A
• Rushing Attempts: 15.49
• Rushing Yards: 61.1
• Model Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Passing Source: BYU, 2025.
• Historical Passing Attempts: 387
• Historical Passing Yards/Attempt: 7.84
• Historical Rate Blend Weight: 0.721
• Notre Dame Opponent Passing Factor: 1.000
• Final Passing Rate: 7.631 Y/A
• Passing Projection Assumption: Full game played.

Bachmeier Reference Passing Market:

• FanDuel Research Under Passing Yards: −114
• Referenced Passing Yard Lines: 189.5 and 181.5
• Source Issue: Two conflicting lines on the same page.
• Model Passing Yards: 180.3
• Model P(Under 189.5): 57.1%.
• Model P(Under 181.5): 51.0%.
• Supplied Single-Sided Reading at 189.5: +6.3 percentage points.
• Supplied Single-Sided Reading at 181.5: +0.2 percentage points.
• Opposite-Side Price: N/A
• Current Confirmed Line: N/A
• Market Status: Single-sided and internally conflicting.
• Add-on B2: Player prop plays suspended.
• Betting Verdict: No qualifying play.

BYU Team Passing:

• Projected Offensive Plays: 56.75
• Projected Pass Rate: 41.62%
• Projected Passing Attempts: 23.62
• Projected Completions: 15.48
• Projected Gross Passing Yards: 180.3
• Projected Net Passing: N/A
• Projected Sacks: N/A
• Passing TD Projection: N/A
• Interception Projection: N/A
• Current-Season Team Passing Rate: 39.02%
• Historical Team Passing Rate: 43.25%
• Current-Season Blend Weight: 0.3846

BYU Cougars — Rushing

• Bear Bachmeier (QB) — 15.49 CAR, 61.1 YDS
• Journee Tonga (RB) — 4.59 CAR, 19.7 YDS
• Preston Rex (RB) — 4.09 CAR, 17.6 YDS
• Legend Glasker (WR) — 1.87 CAR, projected rushing yards N/A individually.
• Jojo Phillips (WR) — 0.17 CAR, projected rushing yards N/A individually.
• Other BYU ball-carriers — Remaining projected carries and yards included in the team total; full individual breakdown not supplied.

BYU Rushing Summary:

• Projected Team Carries: 33.13
• Projected Team Rushing Yards: 137.0
• Highest Projected Rusher: Bear Bachmeier.
• Highest Projected Rushing Yards: 61.1
• Bachmeier Modeled Carry Share: 24.51% of the source share basis.
• Tonga Modeled Carry Share: 7.26%.
• Rex Modeled Carry Share: 6.47%.
• Bachmeier Blended YPC: 3.946
• Tonga Projected YPC: 4.30
• Rex Projected YPC: 4.30
• Bachmeier Rushing Rate Classification: Tier 1.
• Historical Bachmeier Carries: 147 in 2025.
• Historical Rate Blend Weight: 0.495
• Tonga Rate Classification: Tier 3 fallback.
• Rex Rate Classification: Tier 3 fallback.
• Notre Dame Opponent YPC Allowed: 2.10
• LJ Martin: OUT, excluded from rushing shares.
• Model Limitation: BYU’s historical passing/rushing split reflects substantial 2025 LJ Martin usage.
• Rushing Prop Lines: N/A.
• Qualifying Rushing Props: None.

BYU Cougars — Receiving

• Legend Glasker (WR) — 3.61 REC, 42.0 YDS
• Kyler Kasper (WR) — 2.66 REC, 31.0 YDS
• Walker Lyons (TE) — 2.47 REC, 28.8 YDS
• Jojo Phillips (WR) — 2.31 REC, 26.8 YDS
• Preston Rex (RB) — 1.09 REC, receiving yards N/A individually.
• Journee Tonga (RB) — 0.19 REC, receiving yards N/A individually.
• Other BYU receivers — Individual receiving yards not provided; included in the normalized team passing total.

BYU Receiving Summary:

• Projected Team Completions: 15.48
• Projected Team Receiving Yards: 180.3
• Highest Projected Receiver: Legend Glasker.
• Highest Projected Receiving Yards: 42.0
• Glasker Modeled Reception Share: 12.18% of the source share basis.
• Kasper Modeled Reception Share: 8.97%.
• Lyons Modeled Reception Share: 8.33%.
• Phillips Modeled Reception Share: 7.78%.
• Default Receiving Rate: 11.231 yards/reception before team scaling.
• Glasker Rate Classification: Tier 3.
• Kasper Rate Classification: Tier 3.
• Lyons Rate Classification: Tier 3.
• Phillips Rate Classification: Tier 3.
• Receiving Yardage Scaling Factor: 1.037
• No-Prior Limitation: BYU’s leading receivers lack qualifying 2025 BYU rows, resulting in half-weighted current-season shares.
• Receiving Targets: N/A.
• Receiving Prop Lines: N/A.
• Receiving Yardage Closure: PASS — projected receiving yardage equals modeled team passing yardage after normalization.

Player Projection Consistency Checks:

• Notre Dame Projected Passing Attempts: 26.68
• BYU Projected Passing Attempts: 23.62
• Notre Dame Projected Carries: 35.97
• BYU Projected Carries: 33.13
• Notre Dame Projected Completions: 18.74
• BYU Projected Completions: 15.48
• Notre Dame Rushing Yardage Closure: 154.7
• BYU Rushing Yardage Closure: 137.0
• Notre Dame Passing/Receiving Closure: 229.2
• BYU Passing/Receiving Closure: 180.3
• Notre Dame TD λ Closure: 2.4225 + 0.4275 = 2.8500
• BYU TD λ Closure: 1.5300 + 0.2700 = 1.8000
• Target Closure: N/A — NCAA target-volume data unavailable.
• Model Consistency: PASS as reported.
• Player Props: Reading only, suspended under add-on B2.
• Individual player rows not fully reproduced in the supplied text remain N/A rather than estimated.
• Model Note: The closure checks are identities produced by normalization, not independent evidence of forecast accuracy.

EDGE SUMMARY

Moneyline:

• Notre Dame ML: Model 78.31% vs market 77.111% → approximately +1.21 percentage-point anchor edge.
• BYU ML: Model 21.69% vs market 22.889% → approximately −1.21 percentage-point anchor edge.
• Notre Dame Favorite-Arm Live Edge Range: +0.79% to +1.68%.
• Highest Reported Live Notre Dame Edge: +1.68% at FanDuel.
• Lowest Reported Live Notre Dame Edge: +0.79% at BetRivers.
• Required Fixed-σ Edge: 3%.
• Maximum Eligible Live Edge: Below threshold.
• Hard Rock Outlier Reading: +3.57% on Notre Dame, discarded because the row failed market-content and outlier checks.
• Fixed-σ Candidate Status: None.
• Notre Dame Favorite-Arm Break-Even σ: 12.42
• BYU Dog-Arm Break-Even σ: 16.23
• Market-Implied σ: 14.14
• Baseline Margin σ: 13.5
• FBS Margin σ MLE: 12.706
• FBS Margin σ 95% CI: 10.70–15.65
• FBS Margin LR p-value: 0.537
• Calibration Decision: HELD.
• Moneyline Verdict: No qualifying edge.

Spread:

• Notre Dame −10.5: 49.86% modeled cover.
• BYU +10.5: 50.14% modeled cover.
• Notre Dame Spread Edge: Approximately −0.17%.
• BYU Spread Edge: Approximately +0.17%.
• Model Margin Equals Market Spread.
• Classification: Definitional.
• Standard Betting Threshold: 3%.
• Spread Verdict: No qualifying edge.

Total:

• Market Total: 46.5
• Model Total: 46.5
• Over 46.5: Approximately 50.14%.
• Under 46.5: Approximately 49.86%.
• Under Edge: +0.09%.
• Weather WVI: 0.0
• Classification: Definitional.
• Minimum Required Edge: 3%.
• Total Verdict: No qualifying edge.

Player Props:

• CJ Carr Passing Yards: 229.2
• CJ Carr Passing Yard Line: N/A.
• Bear Bachmeier Passing Yards: 180.3
• Bachmeier Referenced Under Lines: 189.5 and 181.5.
• Bachmeier Referenced Under Price: −114.
• Model P(Under 189.5): 57.1%.
• Model P(Under 181.5): 51.0%.
• Source Single-Sided Edges: +6.3% and +0.2%.
• Market Problem: Conflicting numbers on the same source page.
• Opposite-Side Pricing: Unavailable.
• Prop Status: Reading only.
• Rushing Yard Lines: N/A.
• Receiving Yard Lines: N/A.
• Reception Lines: N/A.
• First TD Prices: N/A.
• Anytime TD Prices: N/A.
• Player Props: Suspended under add-on B2.
• Prop Verdict: No qualifying edge.

Calibration and Run Integrity:

• FBS Margin Sample in Supplied Ledger Snapshot: 54 graded games.
• Margin σ MLE: 12.706
• Margin σ CI: 10.70–15.65
• Margin LR p-value: 0.537
• FBS Total σ MLE: 15.544
• Total LR p-value: 0.128
• Parameter Change: None.
• Adjustment Ledger: EMPTY.
• RCF: FALSE.
• WVI: 0.0
• Notre Dame @ BYU Ledger Entry: NOT WRITTEN.
• Missouri @ Ole Miss Earlier Run: Also reported as not written.
• Ledger Commands: Provided in the original source; not executed here.
• Source Ledger Snapshot: 128 games as of its stated October 16 generation.
• Washington @ Purdue Light Grade: Attempted in the source report, but closing line was unavailable in that snapshot.
• Coherence Check C16: FAIL under the supplied run status.
• Outstanding Data Limitations: Current final injuries, verified public-money percentages, two-sided player props, BRI logs, direct NWS forecast and FBS passing mean.
• MODEL VERDICT: No qualifying edge.

INSIGHTS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Strengths: Notre Dame averages 44.0 points per game and allows only 11.0. The defense surrenders 4.08 yards per play and 2.10 rushing yards per carry. CJ Carr has a 16-to-1 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio. The team owns an exceptional +13 turnover differential with only one giveaway.
• Weaknesses: Notre Dame faces a hostile night road environment against an undefeated top-10 opponent. Multiple offensive-line and defensive-line players are unavailable. The running-back rotation is distributed among several players, and no listed running back qualifies for a Tier 1 rushing-rate projection.
• Offensive Outlook: Notre Dame projects for 28.5 points. Carr leads the passing model with 229.2 yards. Jordan Faison projects for 83.8 receiving yards. The backfield distributes rushing production among Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton.
• Defensive Outlook: Notre Dame has been outstanding against the run, allowing only 58.3 rushing yards per game. Its primary task is containing Bear Bachmeier’s scrambling and preventing BYU from sustaining long drives.
• Winning Path: Maintain turnover discipline, control the line of scrimmage, pressure Bachmeier, and capitalize on BYU’s absence of LJ Martin.

BYU Cougars

• Strengths: BYU enters 5-0 with an offense averaging 7.10 yards per play. Its defense allows only 5.54 gross passing yards per attempt and 13.4 points per game. Bachmeier adds substantial mobility, and BYU has reportedly covered five consecutive games.
• Weaknesses: LJ Martin’s absence removes a highly efficient rushing weapon. The offensive line is missing Andrew Gentry. Bachmeier carries more of the rushing responsibility, while the remaining backfield has limited recent production against strong opposition.
• Offensive Outlook: BYU projects for 18.0 points. Bachmeier leads with 180.3 passing yards and 61.1 rushing yards. Legend Glasker projects for 42.0 receiving yards, followed by Kyler Kasper and Walker Lyons.
• Defensive Outlook: BYU’s defense faces CJ Carr and an efficient Notre Dame passing offense. The Cougars must limit explosive gains and generate turnovers to offset Notre Dame’s scoring advantage.
• Winning Path: Use Bachmeier’s mobility, control possession, create turnovers and keep Notre Dame’s explosive offense off the field.

Winning Edge:

• Notre Dame has the stronger scoring offense.
• Notre Dame has the superior turnover profile.
• Notre Dame allows fewer points and fewer rushing yards per game.
• BYU has a slight yards-per-play advantage offensively.
• BYU benefits from home field and a night-game environment.
• BYU’s rushing offense is less certain without LJ Martin.
• Notre Dame has several unavailable linemen.
• The market has moved approximately 1–2 points toward BYU.
• The model projects Notre Dame to win by approximately 10.5 points.
• The current 10.5-point market spread already reflects that projected margin.
• Notre Dame is the projected winner, but neither team offers a qualifying betting advantage.

SPORTSBOOK LIABILITIES:

Notre Dame Fighting Irish:

• Market Favorite: Notre Dame.
• Opening Spread References: −12.5 / −11.5
• Current Modal Spread: −10.5
• Spread Movement: Approximately 1–2 points toward BYU.
• Moneyline Anchor Range: −400 to −425
• Spread Ticket Share: 36%.
• Spread Handle Share: N/A
• Verified Sportsbook Liability: N/A
• Reverse-Line-Movement Signal: Ambiguous.

BYU Cougars:

• Market Underdog: BYU +10.5
• Moneyline Anchor Range: +310 to +325
• Six-Book Vig-Free Market Probability: 22.889%
• Model Win Probability: 21.69%
• Spread Ticket Share: 64%.
• Spread Handle Share: N/A
• Verified Liability: N/A

Market Movement:

• VegasInsider Opening Spread: Notre Dame −11.5
• Alternative Reported Opening Spread: Notre Dame −12.5
• Current Modal Spread: Notre Dame −10.5
• Net Spread Movement: Approximately 1–2 points toward BYU.
• Early Adopted Total Reference: 47.5
• Current Total: 46.5
• Total Movement: Down 1 point.
• Market-Implied Margin σ: 14.14
• Current Public Favorite: BYU by spread ticket share, despite Notre Dame being the market favorite.
• Verified Sharp-Money Distribution: N/A.
• Confirmed Reverse Line Movement: N/A.

Sportsbook Exposure Conclusion:

• BYU receives a majority of the reported spread tickets.
• The broader spread movement has favored BYU.
• A reported late half-point move toward Notre Dame creates ambiguity in the reverse-line-movement interpretation.
• Public-money and handle percentages are unavailable.
• No verified sharp-money or sportsbook-liability conclusion can be established.
• No exposure-based model adjustment is authorized.
• No qualifying sportsbook-liability play.

99.99% Parlay:

Step 1 — Highest-Confidence 5-Leg Construction

Same-Game Probability Ranking:

• Leg 1: Notre Dame +6.5 — 89.7%
• Leg 2: BYU +21.5 — 79.6%
• Leg 3: Under 57.5 — 79.2%
• Leg 4: Notre Dame ML — 78.3%
• Leg 5: Over 36.5 — 77.4%

Joint Probability:

• True Simulated Intersection: 32.49%
• Simple Probability Product: 34.27%
• Correct Method: Simulated intersection.
• The product overstates the modeled joint probability by approximately 1.78 percentage points.

Parlay Dependencies:

• Notre Dame ML implies Notre Dame +6.5.
• Two selections are nested.
• Five Nominal Legs: Four effective legs.
• All five selections occur in the same game.
• Sportsbook Parlay Odds: N/A
• Expected Value: N/A
• Betting Qualification: None.

Step 2 — Same Legs Adjusted to 98% Display Confidence

• Notre Dame +6.5 — true CF 89.7%; 98% not supported.
• BYU +21.5 — true CF 79.6%; 98% not supported.
• Under 57.5 — true CF 79.2%; 98% not supported.
• Notre Dame ML — true CF 78.3%; 98% not supported.
• Over 36.5 — true CF 77.4%; 98% not supported.

True Joint Probability Remains: 32.49%.

• A 99% five-leg joint probability would require approximately 99.8% probability per leg under an independence assumption.
• The selected legs do not approach that confidence.
• Artificially increasing displayed confidence would not change the underlying outcome probability.
• No legitimate 98%, 99%, or 99.99% five-leg joint probability exists.
• No qualifying parlay.

Raw Prediction:

Moneyline:

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 78.3% true CF
• BYU Cougars — 21.7% true CF
• Projected Winner: Notre Dame.
• Qualifying Moneyline Bet: None.

Spread:

• Notre Dame −10.5 — 49.86% true CF
• BYU +10.5 — 50.14% true CF
• Qualifying Spread Bet: None.

Top 5 Alt Spreads:

• Notre Dame +6.5 — 89.7% true CF
• Notre Dame +2.5 — 83.2% true CF
• BYU +21.5 — 79.6% true CF
• Notre Dame −0.5 — 77.2% true CF
• Notre Dame −3.5 — 69.9% true CF

Top 5 Alt Totals:

• Under 57.5 — 79.2% true CF
• Over 36.5 — 77.4% true CF
• Under 54.5 — 72.3% true CF
• Over 39.5 — 69.9% true CF
• Under 51.5 — 64.3% true CF

Game Total:

• Over 46.5 — Approximately 50.14% true CF
• Under 46.5 — Approximately 49.86% true CF
• Model Total: 46.5
• Weather WVI: 0.0
• Qualifying Total Bet: None.

Passing Yards:

• CJ Carr — 229.2 YDS (no verified prop line).
• Bear Bachmeier — 180.3 YDS (conflicting Under 189.5 / 181.5 reference lines, −114).

Rushing Yards:

• Bear Bachmeier — 61.1 YDS
• Aneyas Williams — 44.6 YDS
• Nolan James Jr. — 39.7 YDS
• Jonaz Walton — 32.1 YDS
• CJ Carr — 24.6 YDS
• Journee Tonga — 19.7 YDS
• Preston Rex — 17.6 YDS
• Remaining Players — N/A individually.

Receiving Yards:

• Jordan Faison — 83.8 YDS
• Legend Glasker — 42.0 YDS
• Micah Gilbert — 32.4 YDS
• Kyler Kasper — 31.0 YDS
• Walker Lyons — 28.8 YDS
• Jojo Phillips — 26.8 YDS
• Jaden Greathouse — 17.6 YDS
• Remaining Players — N/A individually.

Anytime Touchdown — Ranked by True Probability:

• Jordan Faison — 36.1%
• Micah Gilbert — 31.8%
• Legend Glasker — 26.7%
• Kyler Kasper — 23.3%
• Cooper Flanagan — 23.2%
• Jaden Greathouse — 22.1%
• Nolan James Jr. — 20.9%
• Aneyas Williams — 20.6%
• Walker Lyons — 19.4%
• Preston Rex — 16.4%
• Jojo Phillips — 14.7%
• CJ Carr — 13.0%
• Jonaz Walton — 10.9%
• Bear Bachmeier — 9.2%
• Journee Tonga — 8.9%
• Remaining Players — N/A individually; aggregate probability ranges provided in the Anytime TD section.

First Team to Score:

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 60.8%
• BYU Cougars — 39.2%

Final Score:

• Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28, BYU Cougars 18
• Notre Dame Model Win Probability: 78.3%
• BYU Model Win Probability: 21.7%
• Projected Margin: Notre Dame +10
• Projected Total: 46
• RCF: FALSE.
• Highest-Probability Listed Alternate Spread: Notre Dame +6.5 — 89.7%.
• Highest-Probability Listed Alternate Total: Under 57.5 — 79.2%.
• Highest Modeled Anytime TD Probability: Jordan Faison — 36.1%.
• Betting Status: No qualifying edge.
• Ledger Status: Not written in the supplied run.

No qualifying edge.

——END OUTPUT——