Boston College Eagles vs No. 21 SMU Mustangs Prediction & Betting Pick

NFL EDGE ENGINE v3.5 — BOSTON COLLEGE @ SMU

NCAA FBS · ACC · Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 AM CDT / 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX · The CW Branch: NCAA · Part 17 · Register: FBS · Seed: rng(7) · N: 100,000 · RCF: TRUE

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[0] DATA AUDIT

Phase: NCAA REGULAR · FBS vs FBS Away: Boston College Eagles (2-2) Home: No. 21 SMU Mustangs (3-1) Date guard: PASS Kickoff: 16:00 UTC · 11:00 AM CDT · 12:00 PM ET RCF: TRUE — ≥2 offensive-line starters unconfirmed.

RCF consequence: NCAA σmargin increases from 13.5 → 14.5. All reported game-level probabilities use σmargin 14.5. Maximum verdict = Lean; ledger caps halved.

Gate 0 — Source Status

Block Status Source / consequence A — Overview PASS FOX game page B — Current odds PASS, substitute ScoresAndOdds seven-book board C — Open / movement PASS VI opener + ScoresAndOdds + ScoresAndStats D — Public splits PARTIAL ScoresAndOdds + FOX; total splits contradictory E — Weather PASS NWS point + hourly forecast F — Rosters PASS, substitute cfbstats G — Depth chart PASS, projected BC official chart via SI; SMU usage/SI H — Injuries PARTIAL Media relays; BC names incomplete I — Team/player stats PASS cfbstats + SportRadar + FOX J — Head-to-head PASS FOX + Covers K — Recent games PASS FOX + cfbstats L — Player props PARTIAL One-sided prices only → no prop verdict

Circuit breaker: TRIPPED and WALKED. Adjustment Ledger: EMPTY.

N/A Register

• Underdog checklist: N/A (SG) — criteria not enumerated.
• First-TD market: N/A (SF) — no priced scorer market located.
• Anytime-TD market prices: N/A (SF).
• BRI: N/A (SF) — required per-game player splits unavailable.
• QB passing TD / INT projections: N/A (SG) — governing methods remain open.
• NCAA C-1 pass-defense factor: N/A (SG) — no ratified FBS league mean.
• Fifth-game 2025 closing lines: N/A (SF).

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[1] GAME HEADER

Field Value League / event NCAA FBS · ACC · Week 5 Matchup Boston College (2-2) at No. 21 SMU (3-1) Date Saturday, October 3, 2026 Kickoff 11:00 AM CDT · 12:00 PM ET Venue Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas / University Park, TX Surface / roof Outdoor Broadcast The CW Weather 75°F · NE wind 7 mph · 50% precipitation chance · 92% cloud cover

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[2] QB COMPOSITE — DESCRIPTIVE, NON-PREDICTIVE

QB Season Comp/Att Pass Yds Y/A TD INT AY/A Rush Kevin Jennings, SMU 2026 97/126 1,453 11.53 12 5 11.65 22 car · 76 yds · 1 TD Kevin Jennings, SMU 2025 300/454 3,641 8.02 26 13 7.88 70 car · 54 yds · 4 TD Mason McKenzie, BC 2026 61/108 759 7.03 3 5 5.50 74 car · 363 yds · 3 TD

NFL EDGE ENGINE v3.5 — BOSTON COLLEGE @ SMU

NCAA FBS · ACC · Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 AM CDT / 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX · The CW Branch: NCAA · Part 17 · Register: FBS · Seed: rng(7) · N: 100,000 · RCF: TRUE

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[0] DATA AUDIT

Phase: NCAA REGULAR · FBS vs FBS Away: Boston College Eagles (2-2) Home: No. 21 SMU Mustangs (3-1) Date guard: PASS Kickoff: 16:00 UTC · 11:00 AM CDT · 12:00 PM ET RCF: TRUE — ≥2 offensive-line starters unconfirmed.

RCF consequence: NCAA σ_margin increases from 13.5 → 14.5. All reported game-level probabilities use σ_margin 14.5. Maximum verdict = Lean; ledger caps halved.

Gate 0 — Source Status

Block Status Source / consequence A — Overview PASS FOX game page B — Current odds PASS, substitute ScoresAndOdds seven-book board C — Open / movement PASS VI opener + ScoresAndOdds + ScoresAndStats D — Public splits PARTIAL ScoresAndOdds + FOX; total splits contradictory E — Weather PASS NWS point + hourly forecast F — Rosters PASS, substitute cfbstats G — Depth chart PASS, projected BC official chart via SI; SMU usage/SI H — Injuries PARTIAL Media relays; BC names incomplete I — Team/player stats PASS cfbstats + SportRadar + FOX J — Head-to-head PASS FOX + Covers K — Recent games PASS FOX + cfbstats L — Player props PARTIAL One-sided prices only → no prop verdict

Circuit breaker: TRIPPED and WALKED. Adjustment Ledger: EMPTY.

N/A Register

• Underdog checklist: N/A (SG) — criteria not enumerated.
• First-TD market: N/A (SF) — no priced scorer market located.
• Anytime-TD market prices: N/A (SF).
• BRI: N/A (SF) — required per-game player splits unavailable.
• QB passing TD / INT projections: N/A (SG) — governing methods remain open.
• NCAA C-1 pass-defense factor: N/A (SG) — no ratified FBS league mean.
• Fifth-game 2025 closing lines: N/A (SF).

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[1] GAME HEADER

Field Value League / event NCAA FBS · ACC · Week 5 Matchup Boston College (2-2) at No. 21 SMU (3-1) Date Saturday, October 3, 2026 Kickoff 11:00 AM CDT · 12:00 PM ET Venue Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas / University Park, TX Surface / roof Outdoor Broadcast The CW Weather 75°F · NE wind 7 mph · 50% precipitation chance · 92% cloud cover

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[2] QB COMPOSITE — DESCRIPTIVE, NON-PREDICTIVE

QB Season Comp/Att Pass Yds Y/A TD INT AY/A Rush Kevin Jennings, SMU 2026 97/126 1,453 11.53 12 5 11.65 22 car · 76 yds · 1 TD Kevin Jennings, SMU 2025 300/454 3,641 8.02 26 13 7.88 70 car · 54 yds · 4 TD Mason McKenzie, BC 2026 61/108 759 7.03 3 5 5.50 74 car · 363 yds · 3 TD

Team ANY/A, 2026: SMU 10.96 · Boston College 4.51.

McKenzie has no qualifying 2025 FBS/FCS passing line.

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[3] TEAM METRICS SNAPSHOT — 2026, NON-PREDICTIVE

Metric Boston College SMU Points/game 19.75 37.00 Points allowed/game 23.00 24.75 Total yards/game 352.5 550.75 Total yards allowed/game 340.75 309.5 Yards/play 5.53 7.81 Yards/play allowed 5.01 4.95 Plays/game 63.75 70.50 Opponent plays/game 68.00 62.50 Pass yards/game 189.75 392.50 Pass yards allowed/game 165.75 161.00 Rush yards/game 162.75 158.25 Rush yards allowed/game 175.00 148.50 Pass rate 42.35% 50.35% Third down 28.0% 52.0% Third down allowed 37.0% 20.4% Giveaways / takeaways 7 / 8 9 / 4 FG 4/5 3/7 Penalties 24-202 32-295

Play Budgets

• SMU: (70.50 + 68.00) / 2 = 69.25 plays
• Boston College: (63.75 + 62.50) / 2 = 63.125 plays

C-1 passing adjustment: SG — not applied.

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[4] PREVIOUS 5 GAMES

Boston College

Date Opponent Result Close ATS Total O/U 9/26/26 vs Virginia Tech L 14-21 +14.5 W 46.5 Under 9/19/26 vs Maine W 22-16 -37.5 L 54.5 Under 9/11/26 vs Rutgers W 28-21 -3.0 W 53.5 Under 9/5/26 @ Cincinnati L 15-34 +7.0 L 51.5 Under 11/29/25 @ Syracuse W 34-12 N/A N/A N/A N/A

SMU

Date Opponent Result Close ATS Total O/U 9/26/26 vs Missouri State W 34-24 -30.5 L 60.5 Under 9/19/26 @ Louisville L 31-41 +2.5 L 57.5 Over 9/12/26 vs UC Davis W 56-10 -31.5 W 59.5 Over 9/7/26 @ Florida State W 27-24 -3.5 L 53.5 Under 1/2/26 vs Arizona W 24-19 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Head-to-head: SMU leads 3-1.

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[5] NEWS / INJURIES

Boston College

• TE Brady Clough — QUESTIONABLE.
• Nine players OUT, two QUESTIONABLE on the Wednesday report; names unavailable from the retrievable source.
• OL uncertainty — ILvl HIGH: LT, RG and RT all contain OR designations on the October 3 depth chart.

SMU

• LT PJ Williams — QUESTIONABLE.
• RG Addison Nichols — QUESTIONABLE.
• K Nick Reed — QUESTIONABLE.
• WR Yamir Knight available; WR Yannick Smith expected available.
• DE Ira Singleton out for season.

RCF = TRUE because at least two expected SMU offensive-line starters remain unconfirmed.

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[6] PUBLIC & ODDS BOARD

Team Spread ML ML Bets ML Money Vig-Free Implied Model Win % Boston College +21.5 +1000 modal 2-3% 3-8% 8.37% 6.89% SMU -21.5 -2000 modal 97-98% 92-97% 91.63% 93.11%

Spread public: Boston College 58-61% tickets, 66-76% money. Total public: contradictory across sources → UNEVALUABLE.

Seven-Book Market

Book Spread ML BC / SMU Total bet365 SMU -21.5 +1000 / -2000 55.5 BetMGM SMU -21.5 +1100 / -2000 55.5 DraftKings SMU -21 +1000 / -1800 55.5 Caesars SMU -21.5 +1000 / -2000 55.5 FanDuel SMU -21.5 +1100 / -2500 55.5 Fanatics SMU -21.5 +1050 / -1800 55.5 BetRivers SMU -21 +850 / -2000 55.5

Consensus anchor: SMU -21.5 / 55.5.

Vig-free anchor:

• SMU ML: 91.629%
• Boston College ML: 8.371%
• SMU -21.5: 49.325%
• Boston College +21.5: 50.675%
• Over 55.5: 48.993%
• Under 55.5: 51.007%

Open: SMU -21 / 56.5. Current: SMU -21.5 / 55.5. RLM: Mild, toward SMU. Steam: None confirmed.

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[7] WEATHER LINE

WVI = 0.0 | applied = 0.0

75°F · NE 7 mph · precipitation probability 50%.

No weather-adjustment threshold fires.

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[8] HOME-TEAM INFO LINE

Home team: SMU — HFA already reflected in market line; no model adjustment applied.

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[9] MSI / DOG-VALUE

MSI: NOT TRIGGERED.

Boston College:

• Market implied: 8.37%
• Model: 6.89%
• ML EDGE: -1.48%

No qualifying underdog value condition exists.

Underdog checklist: N/A (SG).

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[10] FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

SMU 38, Boston College 17

Model/simulation means: SMU 38.5 – Boston College 17.2.

The displayed score is snapped to the approved realistic-score grid and remains within ±2 points of both the model total and margin.

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[11] TRUE SCORE SIMULATION

100,000 simulations · seed 7 · σ_margin 14.5 · σ_total 13.5

• SMU win: 93.11%
• Boston College win: 6.89%
• SMU -21.5 cover: 49.84%
• Boston College +21.5 cover: 50.17%
• Over 55.5: 50.22%
• Under 55.5: 49.78%
• Average score: SMU 38.5 – BC 17.2

Most Common Sim Scores

1. 40-0 — 0.21% 2. 36-17 — 0.20% 3. 39-0 — 0.20% 4. 41-0 — 0.19% 5. 38-0 — 0.19%

The shutout modes are a zero-floor simulation artifact, not individual score forecasts.

Alternate Spread Ladder

Line Side Probability SMU -7.5 SMU 83.3% SMU -10.5 SMU 77.7% SMU -13.5 SMU 71.0% SMU -17.5 SMU 60.9% SMU -21.5 SMU 49.8% BC +24.5 BC 58.5% BC +27.5 BC 66.3% BC +31.5 BC 75.9% BC +35.5 BC 83.8%

Alternate Total Ladder

Total Side Probability 41.5 Over 85.7% 44.5 Over 79.8% 48.5 Over 70.2% 51.5 Over 62.0% 55.5 Over 50.2% 58.5 Under 58.6% 62.5 Under 69.8% 65.5 Under 76.9% 69.5 Under 84.9%

Script Note: FIRES. P(|margin| ≥14) = 71.8%.

Expected implications:

• SMU late-game passing volume ↓
• SMU backup usage ↑
• Boston College trailing-game passing volume ↑
• Player-prop σ widened 15%

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[12] FIRST TEAM TO SCORE

• SMU: 66.65%
• Boston College: 33.35%

No market price located → no verdict.

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[13] TOTAL O/U WITH CF%

Side CF% Vig-Free Bar EDGE Verdict Over 55.5 50.22% 48.99% +1.22% No edge — definitional Under 55.5 49.78% 51.01% -1.22% No edge — definitional

Verdict: No qualifying total edge.

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[14] SPREAD WITH EDGE

Side CF% Vig-Free Bar EDGE Verdict SMU -21.5 49.84% 49.33% +0.51% No edge — definitional Boston College +21.5 50.17% 50.67% -0.51% No edge — definitional

Verdict: No qualifying spread edge.

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[15] FIRST TD TABLE

N/A (SF) — no priced first-touchdown-scorer market located.

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[16] ANYTIME TD TABLE

SMU

Player Pos Anytime TD Yamir Knight WR 48.5% Jalen Cooper WR 43.3% Kendrick Raphael RB 40.0% Randy Pittman Jr. TE 37.0% Yannick Smith WR 30.9% Kevin Jennings QB 18.3% Dramekco Green RB 15.7% Theo Melin Öhrström TE 12.0% Jalen Hale WR 8.2% Derrick McFall WR 6.9% Zack Turner TE 4.2% FIELD — 43.9%

Boston College

Player Pos Anytime TD Javarius Green WR 26.0% Johnathan Montague Jr. WR 22.7% Evan Dickens RB 20.7% Zeke Moore TE 18.9% Jaedn Skeete WR 14.3% Mason McKenzie QB 8.8% Bo MacCormack III RB 6.2% Dawson Pough WR 5.0% Brady Clough TE 5.0% Landon Wright WR 3.2% FIELD — 22.5%

Market prices: N/A (SF).

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[17] PLAYER BREAKOUT — BRI

BRI: N/A (SF).

Four-game minimum is satisfied, but the required game-level player splits for V/R/F flag calculation were not retrieved. No flags are guessed.

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[18] PLAYER PROJECTION TABLES

Volume Assumptions

Team Plays Blended Pass Rate Pass Att Rush Att Comp% Completions SMU 69.25 52.40% 36.29 32.96 77.46% 28.11 Boston College 63.13 50.54% 31.90 31.22 56.48% 18.02

Quarterbacks

Player Att Comp Pass Yds Pass TD INT Carries Rush Yds Kevin Jennings 36.3 28.1 282.7 N/A N/A 6.0 26.0 Mason McKenzie 31.9 18.0 226.5 N/A N/A 16.5 70.8

SMU Rushing

Player Carries Rush Yds Kendrick Raphael 19.7 81.8 Kevin Jennings 6.0 26.0 Dramekco Green 4.6 19.6 Derrick McFall 2.7 11.5

Boston College Rushing

Player Carries Rush Yds Mason McKenzie 16.5 70.8 Evan Dickens 13.2 69.0 Bo MacCormack III 1.6 6.8

SMU Receiving

Player Rec Derived Targets Rec Yds Yamir Knight 6.8 8.8 68.7 Yannick Smith 4.6 5.9 47.5 Randy Pittman Jr. 4.0 5.1 39.3 Kendrick Raphael 3.2 4.1 32.0 Theo Melin Öhrström 2.9 3.7 28.6 Jalen Cooper 2.9 3.7 28.5 Derrick McFall 1.8 2.4 18.2 Jalen Hale 0.8 1.0 7.7 Dramekco Green 0.8 1.0 7.6 Zack Turner 0.5 0.6 4.6

Boston College Receiving

Player Rec Derived Targets Rec Yds Javarius Green 4.2 7.5 53.2 Johnathan Montague Jr. 2.9 5.2 36.6 Dawson Pough 2.7 4.8 34.4 Evan Dickens 2.5 4.4 30.9 Jaedn Skeete 1.8 3.2 23.0 Landon Wright 1.7 3.0 21.6 Brady Clough 1.1 2.0 14.0 Zeke Moore 0.7 1.2 8.4 Bo MacCormack III 0.4 0.6 4.4

Posted Prop Readings

Player Market Line Projection Model P Reading Verdict Kevin Jennings Pass Yds Over 295.5 282.7 40.3% -10.5% None — C-2 Kendrick Raphael Rush Yds Over 104.5 81.8 18.5% -32.3% None — C-2 Kendrick Raphael Rush Yds Under 104.5 81.8 81.5% +30.8% None — C-2 Evan Dickens Rush Yds Over 35.5 69.0 90.7% +40.4% None — C-2 Evan Dickens Rush Yds Over 40.5 69.0 87.0% +36.2% None — C-2 Jalen Cooper Rec Yds Over 49.5 28.5 22.3% -28.5% None — C-2

All retrieved prop prices are one-sided. No prop verdict is permitted.

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[19] EDGE SUMMARY

• Adjustment Ledger: EMPTY.
• Spread and total are definitional because μ_margin and μ_total remain equal to the market anchor.
• No weather adjustment.
• No qualifying prop because no two-sided prop market was retrieved.
• Boston College ML carries a negative model edge.
• The only non-definitional game-level signal is the fixed-σ moneyline-width reading on SMU.

Fixed-σ Moneyline — Favourite Arm

Book Spread SMU Vig-Free Model EDGE bet365 -21.5 91.286% 93.107% +1.82% BetMGM -21.5 91.954% 93.107% +1.15% DraftKings -21 91.244% 92.632% +1.39% Caesars -21.5 91.286% 93.107% +1.82% FanDuel -21.5 92.025% 93.107% +1.08% Fanatics -21.5 91.593% 93.107% +1.51% BetRivers -21 90.047% 92.632% +2.58%

Five-book -21.5 anchor: 93.107% model − 91.629% market = +1.48% EDGE.

Live range: +1.08% to +2.58%.

No book reaches the 3% minimum threshold.

Break-even σ: 13.355. Market-implied σ: 15.57. FBS register: n=36 · σ_margin MLE 13.022 · 95% CI [10.59, 16.92] · held at 13.5.

Verdict

No qualifying edge.

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[20] INSIGHTS

SMU Strengths

• 392.5 passing yards/game.
• 7.81 yards/play.
• 77.5% completion rate.
• 52% third-down conversion.
• Only 20.4% third-down conversion allowed.

SMU Weaknesses

• Nine giveaways through four games.
• -5 turnover margin.
• 3-of-7 field goals.
• Two starting offensive linemen questionable.
• 32 penalties for 295 yards.
• Run defence has shown vulnerability against stronger opponents.

Boston College Strengths

• McKenzie provides significant QB rushing production.
• Ten sacks through four games.
• Eight takeaways.
• Four consecutive games have finished Under the closing total.

Boston College Weaknesses

• 56.5% completion rate.
• Three passing TDs versus five interceptions.
• 28% third-down conversion.
• 175 rushing yards allowed/game.
• Multiple unavailable players.
• Three offensive-line positions remain unsettled.

Winning Edge

Football matchup leans heavily toward SMU, but the market already reflects that advantage. The model identifies no qualifying betting edge.

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[21] BOOK EXPOSURE READ

• SMU ML carries 97-98% of tickets and 92-97% of money.
• Boston College spread carries 58-61% of tickets and 66-76% of money.
• Line movement from SMU -21 to -21.5 while the public backs BC creates a mild reverse-line-movement signal toward SMU.
• Total split sources conflict materially → insufficient data.
• No verified dollar handle is available.

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[22] PARLAY — HONEST

No qualifying edge exists, so this section uses the five highest-probability model legs only.

Leg Probability SMU ML 93.11% SMU -7.5 83.32% Over 41.5 85.67% Under 69.5 84.90% Boston College +35.5 83.77%

Simulation intersection: 46.67%

SMU -7.5 already implies SMU ML, leaving only four effective independent conditions across five nominal legs.

Step 2

A true 99% five-leg parlay would require roughly 99.80% probability per leg before dependence is considered.

No legitimate 99% or 99.99% five-leg parlay exists for this game.

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[23] RAW PREDICTION

• Moneyline: SMU 93.11% · Boston College 6.89%*
• Spread: SMU -21.5 49.84%* · BC +21.5 50.17%*
• Top alternate spreads: BC +35.5 83.8% · SMU -7.5 83.3% · SMU -10.5 77.7%* · BC +31.5 75.9%* · SMU -13.5 71.0%*
• Top alternate totals: Over 41.5 85.7% · Under 69.5 84.9% · Over 44.5 79.8%* · Under 65.5 76.9%* · Over 48.5 70.2%*
• Passing: Kevin Jennings 282.7 yds · Mason McKenzie 226.5 yds
• Rushing: Kendrick Raphael 81.8 · Mason McKenzie 70.8 · Evan Dickens 69.0 · Kevin Jennings 26.0 · Dramekco Green 19.6
• Receiving: Yamir Knight 68.7 · Javarius Green 53.2 · Yannick Smith 47.5 · Randy Pittman Jr. 39.3 · Johnathan Montague Jr. 36.6 · Dawson Pough 34.4 · Jalen Cooper 28.5
• Anytime TD: Knight 48.5%* · Cooper 43.3%* · Raphael 40.0%* · Pittman 37.0%* · Javarius Green 26.0%* · Montague 22.7%* · Dickens 20.7%*

• Below legacy 80% display floor — true probability shown.

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[24] TOP PLAYS — RANKED BY EDGE

No qualifying edge.

Nothing clears its applicable tier.

• SMU fixed-σ moneyline edge: +1.48% anchor
• Best individual-book reading: +2.58%
• Spread: definitional
• Total: definitional
• Props: blocked by one-sided pricing

Gate 7: N/A — no play reported.

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[25] COHERENCE CHECK

Check Result C1 — winner / probability / model total aligned PASS C2 — headline score within ±2 of model margin and total PASS C3 — verdicts match thresholds and RCF restrictions PASS C4 — TD λ closes with FIELD allocation PASS C5 — every projected player reconciled to 2026 roster PASS C6 — weather computed and applied exactly once PASS C7 — ledger/candidate handling coherent PASS C8 — printed simulation values match governing run PASS C9 — missing fields coded N/A with consequences PASS C10 — no-bet string correct PASS C11 — date guard passed / wrong-slate pages discarded PASS C12 — Gate 0 and degraded-mode consequences printed PASS C13 — historical context excluded from ledger inputs PASS C14 — calibration statistics informational only PASS C15 — player-volume identities and TD closes reconcile PASS C16 — ledger state reconciled PASS C17 — Gate 7 required only with a reported play N/A

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FINAL MODEL VERDICT

Boston College 17 — SMU 38

SMU win probability: 93.11%

No qualifying edge.

The model agrees with the market direction but does not identify sufficient separation from the current price to produce a qualifying wager.