Washington Mystics vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Betting Pick

WNBA: Washington Mystics (\-133 reference ML) vs Phoenix Mercury (\+110 reference ML) — Regular Season — Tuesday, August 25, 2026 — Total Handle: N/A

Market snapshot: consensus/reference spread Washington \-2\.5 / Phoenix \+2\.5; reference total 166\.5\. Best lower total observed during the run: 165\.5\. Market observed across sources ranged roughly Washington \-1\.5 to \-3\.0/\-3\.5 and total 165\.5 to 167\.5\. Lines can move before tip\.

⸻ Game Details

• Time: 7:00 PM PDT / 10:00 PM ET
• Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
• TV: MNMT and AZFamily
• Engine convention: Team 1 = AWAY Washington Mystics; Team 2 = HOME Phoenix Mercury

⸻ Team Lineups

[7th overall / 4th East] Washington Mystics — 22\-15 (\.595), playoff berth clinched — EXPECTED lineup (RotoWire, Aug\. 25 date gate passed)

• PG: Georgia Amoore (5\.7 PPG, 3\.4 APG, USG% N/A)
• SG: Sonia Citron (16\.9 PPG, 3\.8 RPG, 53\.0% eFG)
• SF: Kiki Iriafen (15\.2 PPG, 0\.7 SPG, 55\.8% TS)
• PF: Michaela Onyenwere (9\.2 PPG, 2\.8 RPG, OREB% N/A)
• C: Shakira Austin (17\.0 PPG, 9\.6 RPG, 1\.3 BPG, DREB% N/A)
• Key Bench: Cotie McMahon (6\.8 PPG, PER N/A), Lauren Betts (PPG N/A, USG% N/A)
• May Not Play: None on RotoWire’s Aug\. 25 lineup page\.

[11th overall / 6th West] Phoenix Mercury — 13\-24 (\.351), eliminated — EXPECTED lineup (RotoWire, Aug\. 25 date gate passed)

• PG: Kelsey Plum (22\.3 PPG, 5\.6 APG, USG% N/A)
• SG: Kahleah Copper (21\.0 PPG, 3\.5 RPG, 49\.5% eFG)
• SF: Alyssa Thomas (14\.8 PPG, 1\.4 SPG, 56\.2% TS)
• PF: Noemie Brochant (5\.9 PPG, 2\.1 RPG, OREB% N/A)
• C: Natasha Mack (8\.0 PPG, 6\.7 RPG, 1\.1 BPG, DREB% N/A)
• Key Bench: DeWanna Bonner (10\.6 PPG, PER N/A), Sami Whitcomb (PPG N/A, USG% N/A — GTD)
• May Not Play: Sami Whitcomb GTD; Marta Suarez OUT\.

Phoenix position note: RotoWire lists Plum/Copper as guards and Thomas/Mack/Brochant as forwards\. Mack is mapped to the template’s center slot for matchup modeling; all five names are preserved from RotoWire’s expected five\.

⸻ Team Stats Comparison

Washington Mystics — PPG 82\.6, RPG 37\.8, APG 19\.5, TPG 15\.9, PPG Allowed 83\.1, Off\. Efficiency/ORTG 103\.9, Def\. Efficiency/DRTG 104\.6, Effective FG% 49\.1%, FT Rate (FTA/FGA) 39\.0, True Team Stat 40\.9 = (82\.6 \+ 37\.8 \+ 19\.5) \- (15\.9 \+ 83\.1)\.

Phoenix Mercury — PPG 84\.0, RPG 31\.7, APG 19\.9, TPG 13\.8, PPG Allowed 87\.8, Off\. Efficiency/ORTG 105\.0, Def\. Efficiency/DRTG 109\.6, Effective FG% 50\.4%, FT Rate (FTA/FGA) 36\.0, True Team Stat 34\.0 = (84\.0 \+ 31\.7 \+ 19\.9) \- (13\.8 \+ 87\.8)\.

Structural edge: Washington owns the clear rebounding and defensive\-efficiency advantage\. Phoenix has a modest raw scoring/eFG edge but is giving back considerably more on defense\.

⸻ True Edge Analysis

# WNBA: Washington Mystics (\-133 reference ML) vs Phoenix Mercury (\+110 reference ML) — Regular Season — Tuesday, August 25, 2026 — Total Handle: N/A

Market snapshot: consensus/reference spread Washington \-2\.5 / Phoenix \+2\.5; reference total 166\.5\. Best lower total observed during the run: 165\.5\. Market observed across sources ranged roughly Washington \-1\.5 to \-3\.0/\-3\.5 and total 165\.5 to 167\.5\. Lines can move before tip\.

⸻

Game Details

• Time: 7:00 PM PDT / 10:00 PM ET
• Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
• TV: MNMT and AZFamily
• Engine convention: Team 1 = AWAY Washington Mystics; Team 2 = HOME Phoenix Mercury

⸻

Team Lineups

[7th overall / 4th East] Washington Mystics — 22\-15 (\.595), playoff berth clinched — EXPECTED lineup (RotoWire, Aug\. 25 date gate passed)

• PG: Georgia Amoore (5\.7 PPG, 3\.4 APG, USG% N/A)
• SG: Sonia Citron (16\.9 PPG, 3\.8 RPG, 53\.0% eFG)
• SF: Kiki Iriafen (15\.2 PPG, 0\.7 SPG, 55\.8% TS)
• PF: Michaela Onyenwere (9\.2 PPG, 2\.8 RPG, OREB% N/A)
• C: Shakira Austin (17\.0 PPG, 9\.6 RPG, 1\.3 BPG, DREB% N/A)
• Key Bench: Cotie McMahon (6\.8 PPG, PER N/A), Lauren Betts (PPG N/A, USG% N/A)
• May Not Play: None on RotoWire’s Aug\. 25 lineup page\.

[11th overall / 6th West] Phoenix Mercury — 13\-24 (\.351), eliminated — EXPECTED lineup (RotoWire, Aug\. 25 date gate passed)

• PG: Kelsey Plum (22\.3 PPG, 5\.6 APG, USG% N/A)
• SG: Kahleah Copper (21\.0 PPG, 3\.5 RPG, 49\.5% eFG)
• SF: Alyssa Thomas (14\.8 PPG, 1\.4 SPG, 56\.2% TS)
• PF: Noemie Brochant (5\.9 PPG, 2\.1 RPG, OREB% N/A)
• C: Natasha Mack (8\.0 PPG, 6\.7 RPG, 1\.1 BPG, DREB% N/A)
• Key Bench: DeWanna Bonner (10\.6 PPG, PER N/A), Sami Whitcomb (PPG N/A, USG% N/A — GTD)
• May Not Play: Sami Whitcomb GTD; Marta Suarez OUT\.

Phoenix position note: RotoWire lists Plum/Copper as guards and Thomas/Mack/Brochant as forwards\. Mack is mapped to the template’s center slot for matchup modeling; all five names are preserved from RotoWire’s expected five\.

⸻

Team Stats Comparison

Washington Mystics — PPG 82\.6, RPG 37\.8, APG 19\.5, TPG 15\.9, PPG Allowed 83\.1, Off\. Efficiency/ORTG 103\.9, Def\. Efficiency/DRTG 104\.6, Effective FG% 49\.1%, FT Rate (FTA/FGA) 39\.0, True Team Stat 40\.9 = (82\.6 \+ 37\.8 \+ 19\.5) \- (15\.9 \+ 83\.1)\.

Phoenix Mercury — PPG 84\.0, RPG 31\.7, APG 19\.9, TPG 13\.8, PPG Allowed 87\.8, Off\. Efficiency/ORTG 105\.0, Def\. Efficiency/DRTG 109\.6, Effective FG% 50\.4%, FT Rate (FTA/FGA) 36\.0, True Team Stat 34\.0 = (84\.0 \+ 31\.7 \+ 19\.9) \- (13\.8 \+ 87\.8)\.

Structural edge: Washington owns the clear rebounding and defensive\-efficiency advantage\. Phoenix has a modest raw scoring/eFG edge but is giving back considerably more on defense\.

⸻

True Edge Analysis

• Adjusted Net Rating Differential: Washington \+2\.1\* vs Phoenix \-3\.2\* = \+5\.3 Washington\*\. Calculation blends 55% recent L10 and 45% season net rating\. Washington: L10 \+4\.3 / season \-0\.6\. Phoenix: L10 \-1\.9 / season \-4\.7; Phoenix L10 snapshot is slightly stale by one game, so confidence is discounted\.
• Momentum Index: Washington 3\-2 L5, including a 105\-100 comeback road win at Portland that clinched a playoff spot, vs Phoenix 1\-4 L5, including three straight home losses\.
• Bench Strength Ratio: N/A — a current, consistent two\-player bench PPG\+PER set was not available from the approved pipeline; not estimated\.
• Injury Adjustment Coefficient: Washington 0\.0\*; Phoenix \-0\.5\*\. Phoenix’s projected starters are intact on the current RotoWire expected lineup, so only a small bench/depth penalty is applied for Whitcomb GTD and Suarez OUT\.
• True Edge (Final Composite): Washington 55\.5% vs Phoenix 44\.5% from the single 50,000\-run TSS\.

⸻

Player News

Washington Mystics

• Key Player: Shakira Austin is coming off a career\-high 31 points with 10 rebounds at Portland and is averaging 17\.0 PPG / 9\.6 RPG this season\.
• Injury/Update: Washington enters with no may\-not\-play tags on RotoWire’s Aug\. 25 lineup page\.
• Injuries: None listed in the lineup gate\.

Phoenix Mercury

• Key Player: Kahleah Copper scored 38 points in Phoenix’s last game and carries the highest recent scoring ceiling in the matchup\.
• Injury/Update: Kelsey Plum is in the expected starting five and is not tagged as may\-not\-play on the current RotoWire lineup page after missing recent action\.
• Injuries: Sami Whitcomb (GTD), Marta Suarez (OUT)\.

⸻

Previous Games

Washington Mystics — Last 5: 3\-2 — offense has accelerated recently; L10 scoring is 86\.5 PPG\.

• W — Aug\. 23: @ Portland Fire, 105\-100 — Total 205
• L — Aug\. 21: vs Minnesota Lynx, 84\-94 — Total 178
• W — Aug\. 19: vs Toronto Tempo, 93\-82 — Total 175
• W — Aug\. 15: vs Los Angeles Sparks, 80\-70 — Total 150
• L — Aug\. 13: @ Las Vegas Aces, 76\-83 — Total 159

Phoenix Mercury — Last 5: 1\-4 — defensive form is the primary concern\.

• L — Aug\. 22: vs Atlanta Dream, 89\-99 — Total 188
• L — Aug\. 16: vs Portland Fire, 85\-88 — Total 173
• W — Aug\. 11: @ Los Angeles Sparks, 94\-87 — Total 181
• L — Aug\. 9: @ Washington Mystics, 75\-95 — Total 170
• L — Aug\. 7: @ Connecticut Sun, 72\-75 — Total 147

2026 H2H: Washington won the Aug\. 9 meeting 95\-75\.

⸻

TEAM PLAYING AT HOME

Phoenix Mercury — Yes\. WNBA home edge of \+1\.5 points was applied inside the simulation only; no post\-sim home\-win boost was added\.

⸻

# Game Predictions

1\. Team to Win

Washington Mystics (\-133 reference ML) — 55\.5% CF — Washington’s superior defense/rebounding, better recent form and \+5\.3\* adjusted net\-rating edge overcome Phoenix’s home adjustment\. Betting\-value caveat: at roughly \-133/\-139, the ML is only a thin edge; it becomes more attractive if \-120 to \-125 is available\.

1\.a ML Surprise Index (MSI)

Reference two\-way market: Phoenix \+110 / Washington approximately \-133\.

• Vig: 4\.70%
• Fair probability: Phoenix 45\.5%, Washington 54\.5%
• Model: Phoenix 44\.5%, Washington 55\.5%
• Dog gap: Phoenix model 44\.5% \- fair 45\.5% = \-1\.0 percentage point
• MSI: NO (requires \+7 points)
• Checklist \#2: NO (requires \+10 points)
• No ML Surprise projected — model and market align\.

1\.b Underdog Projection

• Underdog: Phoenix Mercury \+110 / \+2\.5
• Underdog Score: 2/7\*
• Live Dog Status: No — positives are home court and the model’s 52\.7% cover probability at \+2\.5; negatives are sub\-fair ML probability, 1\-4 L5 form, defensive disadvantage, injury/depth uncertainty and the 20\-point loss in the first 2026 H2H\.

⸻

1\.c True Score Simulation (TSS)

TSS PASTE BLOCK — WNBA, 50,000 runs, seed 42

• Inputs: Mystics mean 85\.0 (sd 10\.5), Mercury mean 83\.3 (sd 10\.5), rho 0\.30 \| Home adj: \+1\.5 to Team2/Mercury (engine\-applied)
• Simulated Win Probability: Mystics 55\.5% vs Mercury 44\.5%
• Simulated Average Score: Mystics 85\.0, Mercury 83\.3
• Projected Total from TSS: 168\.3
• Distribution Insight: Mystics favored in 55\.5% of 50,000 runs \| one\-possession game &#40;<=3&#41;: 19\.0%
• Most Common Occurrence: Mystics by 1\-6 &#40;19\.2% of runs&#41;; most common total band 162\-167 &#40;14\.0%&#41;
• Likely Score Range &#40;20th\-80th pct&#41;: Mystics 76\-94, Mercury 74\-92
• Median margin: Mystics \+1\.7
• Median total: 168\.2

Validation G3: PASS\. TSS total 168\.3 is only 1\.8 points from the 166\.5 reference market total &#40;well inside ±12 WNBA gate&#41;\.

⸻

2\. Final Score

• Washington Mystics 85, Phoenix Mercury 83 — 55\.5% CF
• Total: 168\.3 model mean / 168 rounded game projection
• DPA: Not triggered\. Washington pace 95\.6 and Phoenix pace 97\.4 do not meet the both\-teams\-below\-95 suppression condition\.
• LTOR: Phoenix falls in the 50\-60% / margin <5 bracket → \-3% PTS/AST/USG to losing\-team player\-output projections\. This is not stacked with any retired flat loser penalty\.
• Garbage\-time model: Not triggered; spread is far below the WNBA 11\-point threshold\.

Score Distribution Forecast

• Washington likely range: 76\-94
• Phoenix likely range: 74\-92

⸻

3\. Over/Under Prediction

• Reference total 166\.5: Over 166\.5 — 54\.1% CF
• Best observed lower line 165\.5: Over 165\.5 — 56\.5% CF
• Prediction: Over, with preference for 165\.5 rather than 166\.5/167\.5\.
• Reason: TSS mean is 168\.3; Phoenix’s last 10 have averaged 87\.2 scored / 90\.6 allowed, and Washington’s recent offense is up to 86\.5 PPG over L10\. The model does not project a blowout, reducing late\-game pace\-collapse risk\.

⸻

4\. Spread Choice

• Phoenix \+2\.5 &#40;\-110 reference&#41; — 52\.7% CF — LEAN, not a top\-3 play\.
• The TSS median margin is Washington \+1\.7, which lands inside Phoenix \+2\.5\.
• At standard \-110, 52\.7% is only a marginal edge over the 52\.38% breakeven price\.
• On average: Washington wins by 1\.7 points; Phoenix loses by 1\.7\.

⸻

5\. Total Points by Team / High\-Probability Player Scoring

None ≥90% — player\-prop CF cap is 85%\.

• Highest Washington scoring floor: Shakira Austin 10\+ points — 85% CF\*
• Highest Phoenix scoring floor: Kahleah Copper 15\+ points — 78% CF\*

⸻

6\. REBOUNDS

• Washington: Kiki Iriafen \~10 REB\*; Shakira Austin 9\.4 REB\* recency\-weighted projection\.
• Phoenix: Alyssa Thomas \~8 REB\*; Natasha Mack \~6\-7 REB\*\.
• Current board reference: Austin O/U 9\.5; Iriafen O/U 9\.5; Thomas O/U 8\.5\.

⸻

7\. ASSISTS

• Sonia Citron: 5\.9 AST\* recency\-weighted projection; Over 4\.5 AST — 62\.3% CF\* at approximately \-141\.
• Alyssa Thomas: \~8 AST\* baseline projection; current line 7\.5\.
• Kelsey Plum: season baseline 5\.6 APG, but recent availability makes current\-role projection lower confidence\.

⸻

8\. 3 POINTERS — WNBA \-40% adjustment applied

• Kelsey Plum: 1\.4 made 3s\* after \-40% adjustment from 2\.4 season 3PM baseline\.
• Kahleah Copper: 1\.1\* after adjustment from 1\.8 baseline\.
• Sonia Citron: 0\.8\* after adjustment from 1\.3 baseline\.

⸻

9\. BLOCKS

• Shakira Austin: 1\.3 BLK\* — 64% CF\* to record 1\+\.
• Natasha Mack: 1\.1 BLK\* — 58% CF\* to record 1\+\.

⸻

10\. STEALS

• Alyssa Thomas: 1\.4 STL\* — 65% CF\* to record 1\+\.
• Sonia Citron: 1\.2 STL\* — 61% CF\* to record 1\+\.

⸻

# PLAYER BREAKOUT

Washington — Shakira Austin

• Recency\-weighted, minutes × per\-minute projection: 20\.1 PTS, 9\.4 REB, 2\.0 AST, 31\.5 PRA\*\.
• L3: 19\.7 PPG over 29\.7 inferred minutes, 13\.3 FGA, 58\.9% TS\.
• BRI factors: V=1, R=0, F=1, M=1 → 3/4; ceiling 1\.23×; USM YES\.
• M\-factor is triggered because Phoenix’s defense ranks in the bottom third\. Low\-discrimination flag: this M\-trigger is broad by design in a 15\-team league\.
• Bet angle: Austin Over 17\.5 points &#40;\-105&#41; — 60\.2% CF\*\.

Phoenix — Kahleah Copper

• Recency\-weighted, minutes × per\-minute projection: 21\.9 PTS, 3\.0 REB, 2\.2 AST, 27\.1 PRA\*\.
• L3: 25\.0 PPG over 36\.0 minutes, 17\.0 FGA, 61\.8% TS\.
• BRI factors: V=1, R=1, F=1, M=0 → 3/4; ceiling 1\.24×; USM YES\.
• Washington’s top\-tier defense prevents the M\-factor\.

Secondary Washington creator — Sonia Citron

• Recency\-weighted projection: 14\.8 PTS, 3\.5 REB, 5\.9 AST, 24\.2 PRA\*\.
• BRI: V=0, R=0, F=0, M=1 → 1/4; 1\.06×, no USM\.
• Her assist projection, rather than scoring, creates the stronger prop edge\.

⸻

SPORTSBOOK LIABILITY SNAPSHOT

DraftKings\-only handle/bet splits: N/A\. No verified current WAS\-PHX row was available from the approved DK splits pipeline during this run\. Per model rules, no split percentages are estimated\.

⸻

Insights

• Washington defense: 104\.6 DRTG, top\-tier in the league, versus Phoenix’s 109\.6 DRTG\. The defensive gap is the biggest team\-level reason the model favors Washington\.
• Rebounding: Washington 37\.8 RPG vs Phoenix 31\.7 — a \+6\.1 RPG raw advantage\.
• Phoenix scoring ceiling: Copper’s recent shot volume/form plus the return of Plum keeps the game close enough that the model does not like laying Washington \-2\.5\.
• Washington weakness: 49\.1% eFG, 30\.4% from three and a high turnover rate; this is why the outright win probability stays in the mid\-50s rather than becoming a strong side signal\.
• Total environment: the model sees enough offense for 168\.3 despite Washington’s defense because Phoenix’s defensive leakage and Washington’s recent offensive surge offset the slow\-ish pace\.

⸻

Edge Summary

• Moneyline: Washington model 55\.5% vs fair market 54\.5% at a \-133/\+110 pair = only \+1\.0 percentage point\. Prediction is Washington, but price discipline matters\.
• Spread: Phoenix \+2\.5 model cover 52\.7% — a lean, not a priority bet at \-110\.
• Total: Over 165\.5 model 56\.5% vs 50\.0% fair on a symmetric \-110/\-110 market = \+6\.5 points of model probability over fair; strongest game\-level edge\.
• Citron assists: model 62\.3%\* vs devigged Over fair 54\.9% at \-141/\+108 = \+7\.4 points\*\.
• Austin points: model 60\.2%\* vs devigged Over fair 48\.1% at \-105/\-123 = \+12\.1 points\*\.

—

# 99\.99% PARLAY

Label only — not a 99\.99% probability\. No sportsbook price is assumed\.

5\-leg 80%\-CF scaffold

1. Washington \+13\.5 — marginal 88\.9%\* 2. Over 153\.5 — marginal 80\.9%\* 3. Shakira Austin conservative scoring\-floor player leg — conditional pW 88% / pL 84%\* 4. Sonia Citron conservative assist\-floor player leg — conditional pW 92% / pL 89%\* 5. Kiki Iriafen conservative rebound\-floor player leg — conditional pW 88% / pL 84%\*

• TRUE JOINT: 49\.0%\* — fair odds approximately \+104
• Naive independent product: 48\.5%\*
• Correlation effect: \+0\.5 percentage point\*
• This is a probability scaffold; alternate player thresholds were not all verified as offered lines, so it is not presented as a ready\-to\-bet ticket\.

Tightened 3\-leg core — based on actual recommended markets

1. Over 165\.5 2. Sonia Citron Over 4\.5 assists 3. Shakira Austin Over 17\.5 points

Player\-leg conditional probabilities used in the parlay engine: Citron pW 65% / pL 59%*; Austin pW 62% / pL 58%*\.

• TRUE JOINT: 21\.2%\* — fair odds approximately \+371
• Naive independent product: 21\.2%\*
• Correlation effect: \+0\.0 percentage points\* at engine precision

—

# FINAL THOUGHTS RAW

• ML: Washington Mystics 55\.5% CF\. Prediction = Washington; bet only with a favorable price, ideally around \-125 or better\.
• Underdog win path: Phoenix wins if Copper/Plum produce high\-end shot\-making, Thomas controls creation, and Washington’s turnover/three\-point weaknesses surface\. Coin\-flip flag: YES — 55\.5/44\.5 ML with a 19\.0% one\-possession rate\.
• Spread: Phoenix \+2\.5 — 52\.7% CF, lean only\.
• Alt Spread — top 5 from the same TSS: Phoenix \+7 65% CF cap &#40;raw 66\.8%&#41;; Phoenix \+5\.5 62\.1%; Washington \+2 61\.7%; Phoenix \+4 57\.5%; Washington \+0\.5 57\.1%\.
• Points: Shakira Austin 20\.1 PTS projection\*; preferred line Over 17\.5, 60\.2% CF\*\.
• Rebounds: Kiki Iriafen \~10 REB projection\*; Austin 9\.4\*\.
• Assists: Sonia Citron 5\.9 AST projection\*; Over 4\.5, 62\.3% CF\*\.
• PRA: Shakira Austin 31\.5 PRA projection\*\.
• Double Double: Kiki Iriafen YES — 54% CF\*\.
• Total O/U — top 5 from main 166\.5 ladder: Over 160\.5 65% CF cap &#40;raw 67\.8%&#41;; Over 162\.5 63\.3%; Under 172\.5 59\.8%; Over 164\.5 58\.8%; Under 170\.5 55\.3%\.

TOP\-3 RECOMMENDED BETS — LOGGED TO CLV LEDGER

1. Over 165\.5 &#40;\-110&#41; — 56\.5% CF - TSS total 168\.3; \+2\.8\-point model cushion to the best observed 165\.5\. - Prefer 165\.5; edge declines to 54\.1% at 166\.5 and 51\.7% at 167\.5\. 2. Sonia Citron Over 4\.5 Assists &#40;\-141&#41; — 62\.3% CF\* - Recency\-weighted projection 5\.9 AST\*\. - Last three assists: 6, 5, 6\. - Devigged fair Over probability 54\.9%; model advantage \+7\.4 pts\*\. 3. Shakira Austin Over 17\.5 Points &#40;\-105&#41; — 60\.2% CF\* - Recency\-weighted projection 20\.1 PTS\*\. - BRI 3/4, USM YES; 31\-point ceiling game last outing\. - Devigged fair Over probability 48\.1%; model advantage \+12\.1 pts\*\.

⸻

DATA SOURCING FOOTNOTES

Confirmed/current sources used

• RotoWire WNBA Daily Lineups: Aug\. 25 header/date gate; both five\-player groups marked Expected; Washington May Not Play = None; Phoenix Whitcomb GTD, Suarez OUT\.
• CBS Sports / AXS / Ticketmaster / Bleacher Nation\-DataSkrive: matchup, records, Aug\. 25 date, 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM local\-PDT, Mortgage Matchup Center; MNMT/AZFamily from current watch preview\.
• StatMuse: current season team records/ratings, Washington L10 net rating, Phoenix season ratings and recent net\-rating snapshot, current player/team baselines\.
• RotoWire team pages: pace, eFG, FTA/FGA and shooting profile\.
• SportsGambler current matchup page: reference ML/spread/total and player\-prop lines\. Its page displays Aug\. 26 under its selected timezone; canonical event date was resolved to Aug\. 25 Phoenix local/PDT by RotoWire/CBS/AXS/Ticketmaster and the URL itself is the Aug\. 25 matchup\.
• Yahoo Sports: current \-2\.5 / 165\.5 market snapshot during the run\.
• Bleacher Nation/DataSkrive: current \-2\.5 / 166\.5 market reference, team scoring context, player props, injuries\.

Model\-estimated figures &#40;\*&#41;

• Neutral scoring means, adjusted\-net blend, injury coefficient, underdog checklist score, recency player projections/CFs, high\-probability alt player floors, double\-double probability and parlay conditional player probabilities\.
• 50,000\-run TSS probabilities are engine\-derived rather than sportsbook data; side/total CFs are capped at 65%, props at 85%\.

Devig records

• ML Phoenix \+110 / Washington \-133: vig 4\.70%; fair PHX 45\.5%, WAS 54\.5%\.
• Citron AST Over \-141 / Under \+108: vig 6\.58%; fair Over 54\.9%, Under 45\.1%\.
• Austin PTS Over \-105 / Under \-123: vig 6\.38%; fair Over 48\.1%, Under 51\.9%\.
• Symmetric total \-110/\-110: fair 50\.0% / 50\.0%\.

Engine / simulation record

• `model_engine.py` was not present in the uploaded bundle and was regenerated from Appendix A of the master instructions\.
• `SELFTEST PASS (6/6)`\.
• Fresh `clv_ledger.csv` initialized because prior ledger history was absent this session\.
• Simulation: WNBA defaults sigma 10\.5/team, rho 0\.30, seed 42, 50,000 runs; no sigma/rho override\.
• Raw uncapped TSS: Washington ML 55\.5%; Phoenix \+7 66\.8%; Over 160\.5 67\.8%\. Report caps applied where required\.

Unavailable / intentionally N/A

• DraftKings current handle/bet split row: N/A; never estimated\.
• Complete bench PER/USG set: N/A; not invented\.
• Confirmed starters: not yet available at run time; projected/Expected lineup accepted as PASS per user instruction\.

Dead ends / exclusions honored

• Basketball\-Reference, OddsShark, sportsbook\.draftkings\.com, RotoWire projected\-minutes JS panel and other master dead ends were not used as adopted model sources\.
• Covers did not provide a sufficiently reliable current block for required fields during this pass, so approved fallbacks were used\.

Validation gates: G1 PASS · G2 PASS · G3 PASS · G4 PASS · G5 PASS · G6 PASS · G7 PASS · G8 PASS\.

\-END OUTPUT\-