New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Betting Pick

MLB NL New York Mets,-101 vs Miami Marlins,-116 September 7, 2026

Game Information: • Teams: New York Mets (65–78) @ Miami Marlins (72–72) • Date: Monday, September 7, 2026 • Time: 1:10 PM ET • Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida • TV Coverage: SNY / Marlins.TV — Starting Pitchers:

New York Mets • Pitcher: Jonah Tong, RHP — 1–1, 3.60 ERA, approximately 3 appearances, 7 SO, 1.50 WHIP, 16% K, 16% BB, 0.90 HR/9 • Insight: Extremely low-sample, high-variance profile. Tong’s 3.60 ERA is unsupported by a 1.50 WHIP and 16% walk rate. §4.7 fires and pulls the raw grade toward 0.50 while capping PCM at 1.10. • PVI: 0.458 after §4.7 adjustment

Pitcher Command Quality (PCQ) • Jonah Tong: Final Grade 0.458 • Raw grade: 0.43 • §4.7 treatment: 40% pull toward 0.50 • RA9: 4.69 • Expected IP: 4.0 • Variance flag: recall_sp • PCM cap: 1.10 • PSI: N/A

Miami Marlins • Pitcher: Eury Pérez, RHP — 7–10, 3.72 ERA, 145 SO • Insight: Pérez carries the stronger and more stable starter profile. Park-neutralization moves his ERA to 3.84 because loanDepot suppresses scoring. His 145 strikeouts lead Miami’s staff. • PVI: 0.62

Pitcher Command Quality (PCQ) • Eury Pérez: Final Grade 0.63 • PVI: 0.62 • PSI: 0.64 bounded • Grade band: 0.57–0.69 • Park-neutralized ERA: 3.84 • RA9: 3.77 • Expected IP: 5.5 — Team Lineups:

New York Mets 5th NL East New York Mets (65–78) •1: A.J. Ewing CF (Stats N/A) •2: Francisco Lindor SS (.231 AVG, .316 OBP, .424 SLG, 15 HR, 36 RBI) •3: Bo Bichette 3B (.264 AVG, .312 OBP, .393 SLG, 14 HR, 66 RBI) •4: Juan Soto LF (.281 AVG, .402 OBP, .542 SLG, 23 HR, 55 RBI, 64 BB) •5: Carson Benge RF (.278 AVG, .338 OBP, .420 SLG, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 71 R) •6: Jared Young 1B (Stats N/A) •7: Marcus Semien 2B (.218 AVG, .283 OBP, .348 SLG, 14 HR, 44 RBI) •8: Francisco Álvarez DH (.231 AVG, .317 OBP, .392 SLG, 13 HR, 34 RBI) •9: Luis Torrens C (Stats N/A) Starting Pitcher: • Jonah Tong (3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, K/9 N/A, 0.458 PVI) Key Bench: • N/A Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A

Miami Marlins 3rd NL East Miami Marlins (72–72) •1: J. Marsee CF (.210 AVG, .330 OBP, .330 SLG, 9 HR, 69 R, 69 BB, 21 SB) •2: J. Serna 2B (Stats N/A) •3: Otto López SS (.302 AVG, .338 OBP, .441 SLG, 166 H, 30 2B, 8 3B, 62 RBI, 29 SB) •4: Kyle Stowers 1B (.247 AVG, .333 OBP, .471 SLG, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 24 2B) •5: Heriberto Hernández LF (.232 AVG, .316 OBP, .472 SLG, 23 HR, 61 RBI) •6: Agustín Ramírez DH (Stats N/A) •7: Owen Caissie RF (.223 AVG, .286 OBP, .416 SLG, 13 HR, 52 RBI) •8: J. Mack C (.234 AVG, .286 OBP, .406 SLG, 12 HR, 40 RBI) •9: J. Sanoja 3B (.287 AVG, .328 OBP, .428 SLG, 108 H, 28 2B, 53 RBI) Starting Pitcher: • Eury Pérez (3.72 ERA, WHIP N/A, K/9 N/A, 0.62 PVI) Key Bench: • N/A Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A — Previous Games:

MLB NL New York Mets,-101 vs Miami Marlins,-116 September 7, 2026

Game Information: • Teams: New York Mets (65–78) @ Miami Marlins (72–72) • Date: Monday, September 7, 2026 • Time: 1:10 PM ET • Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida • TV Coverage: SNY / Marlins.TV — Starting Pitchers:

New York Mets • Pitcher: Jonah Tong, RHP — 1–1, 3.60 ERA, approximately 3 appearances, 7 SO, 1.50 WHIP, 16% K, 16% BB, 0.90 HR/9 • Insight: Extremely low-sample, high-variance profile. Tong’s 3.60 ERA is unsupported by a 1.50 WHIP and 16% walk rate. §4.7 fires and pulls the raw grade toward 0.50 while capping PCM at 1.10. • PVI: 0.458 after §4.7 adjustment

Pitcher Command Quality (PCQ) • Jonah Tong: Final Grade 0.458 • Raw grade: 0.43 • §4.7 treatment: 40% pull toward 0.50 • RA9: 4.69 • Expected IP: 4.0 • Variance flag: recall_sp • PCM cap: 1.10 • PSI: N/A

Miami Marlins • Pitcher: Eury Pérez, RHP — 7–10, 3.72 ERA, 145 SO • Insight: Pérez carries the stronger and more stable starter profile. Park-neutralization moves his ERA to 3.84 because loanDepot suppresses scoring. His 145 strikeouts lead Miami’s staff. • PVI: 0.62

Pitcher Command Quality (PCQ) • Eury Pérez: Final Grade 0.63 • PVI: 0.62 • PSI: 0.64 bounded • Grade band: 0.57–0.69 • Park-neutralized ERA: 3.84 • RA9: 3.77 • Expected IP: 5.5 — Team Lineups:

New York Mets 5th NL East New York Mets (65–78) •1: A.J. Ewing CF (Stats N/A) •2: Francisco Lindor SS (.231 AVG, .316 OBP, .424 SLG, 15 HR, 36 RBI) •3: Bo Bichette 3B (.264 AVG, .312 OBP, .393 SLG, 14 HR, 66 RBI) •4: Juan Soto LF (.281 AVG, .402 OBP, .542 SLG, 23 HR, 55 RBI, 64 BB) •5: Carson Benge RF (.278 AVG, .338 OBP, .420 SLG, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 71 R) •6: Jared Young 1B (Stats N/A) •7: Marcus Semien 2B (.218 AVG, .283 OBP, .348 SLG, 14 HR, 44 RBI) •8: Francisco Álvarez DH (.231 AVG, .317 OBP, .392 SLG, 13 HR, 34 RBI) •9: Luis Torrens C (Stats N/A) Starting Pitcher: • Jonah Tong (3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, K/9 N/A, 0.458 PVI) Key Bench: • N/A Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A

Miami Marlins 3rd NL East Miami Marlins (72–72) •1: J. Marsee CF (.210 AVG, .330 OBP, .330 SLG, 9 HR, 69 R, 69 BB, 21 SB) •2: J. Serna 2B (Stats N/A) •3: Otto López SS (.302 AVG, .338 OBP, .441 SLG, 166 H, 30 2B, 8 3B, 62 RBI, 29 SB) •4: Kyle Stowers 1B (.247 AVG, .333 OBP, .471 SLG, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 24 2B) •5: Heriberto Hernández LF (.232 AVG, .316 OBP, .472 SLG, 23 HR, 61 RBI) •6: Agustín Ramírez DH (Stats N/A) •7: Owen Caissie RF (.223 AVG, .286 OBP, .416 SLG, 13 HR, 52 RBI) •8: J. Mack C (.234 AVG, .286 OBP, .406 SLG, 12 HR, 40 RBI) •9: J. Sanoja 3B (.287 AVG, .328 OBP, .428 SLG, 108 H, 28 2B, 53 RBI) Starting Pitcher: • Eury Pérez (3.72 ERA, WHIP N/A, K/9 N/A, 0.62 PVI) Key Bench: • N/A Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A — Previous Games:

New York Mets Last 5 Games: N/A Momentum Insight: New York’s recent scoring window is incomplete at three of five games, below the four-game minimum, so the model uses season-only offense with no winsorization or opponent-quality adjustment.

• W 9/4 vs SF: 10–6, total 16
• L 9/5 vs SF: 5–9, total 14
• W 9/6 vs SF: 4–2, total 6
• 9/2: N/A
• 9/3: OFF / N/A

Miami Marlins Last 5 Games: N/A Momentum Insight: Miami’s recent scoring window is also incomplete at three of five. No recent-form adjustment is used. This missing window is one of the two primary reasons DQS falls below the betting floor.

• W 9/2 vs KC: 9–6, total 15
• L 9/3 vs KC: 3–7, total 10
• L 9/5 vs CHC: 5–6, total 11
• Remaining games: N/A

⸻ TEAM PLAYING AT HOME: Miami Marlins Yes (Update win % by 5%) — Player News:

New York Mets: • Key Player: Juan Soto — .281/.402/.542 with 23 HR and 64 BB; strongest verified Mets hitter. • Injury/Update: No verified injury information retrieved. Soto and Francisco Lindor are both included in the projected lineup despite missing substantial time earlier in the season. • Injuries: N/A

Miami Marlins: • Key Player: Otto López — .302 AVG, 166 H, 30 doubles, 8 triples, 62 RBI and 29 SB; strongest verified contact profile in the matchup. • Injury/Update: No verified injury information retrieved. • Injuries: N/A — Weather • Conditions: N/A • Wind: N/A • Game impact: loanDepot park has a retractable roof, but roof status was not published. WPF = 1.00 as a null rather than a measured condition. Park factor = 0.94, banded 0.91–0.97. — Predictions

1. Team to Win Miami Marlins — 58.5% blended win probability Raw simulation: MIA 61.2% | NYM 38.8% Reasoning: Miami has the stronger starter, home field, better modeled bullpen, and a favorable matchup against Tong’s extreme 16% walk rate and low-sample bulk profile.

1.a Moneyline Surprise Index (MSI): • No Moneyline Surprise projected – model and market align.

1b. Monte Carlo Simulation • Simulations: 50,000 • Seed: 20260907 • MIA win: 61.2% • NYM win: 38.8% • Blended: MIA 58.5% | NYM 41.5% • Extra innings: 11.3% • One-run games: 28.2% • MIA win by 1: 15.3% • MIA win by 2: 11.4% • MIA win by 3+: 34.5% • NYM win by 1: 12.9% • NYM win by 2: 8.6% • NYM win by 3+: 17.3% • Most common margin: MIA by 1 • Most common finals: • NYM 2 – MIA 3: 3.0% • NYM 1 – MIA 2: 3.0% • NYM 2 – MIA 1: 2.6%

2. Final Score New York Mets 4 – Miami Marlins 5 Total: 8.43 model projection / 8.47 simulation mean Run Distribution: NYM: 1–6, 20th–80th percentile MIA: 2–8, 20th–80th percentile Median Projection: 8.0 Chaos Ceiling (85th): 13.0 Collapse Floor (15th): 3.0

2a. Spread • MIA +1.5 — 74.1% • NYM −1.5 — 25.9% • Avg margin: MIA +1.27 projected mean-run advantage after home field • Rank top 5 Spread:

1. MIA +2.5 — 82.7% 2. NYM +4.5 — 80.3% 3. MIA +1.5 — 74.1% 4. NYM +2.5 — 68.9% 5. NYM +1.5 — 55.7% Run-line juice: N/A VES: N/A 6. Over/Under Market total: 7.5 Model total: 8.43 Blended total: 7.73 Simulation mean: 8.47 Drift: +0.93 Over 7.5 — 50.2% Under 7.5 — 49.8% Collapse Floor: 3.0 Median: 8.0 Chaos Ceiling: 13.0 Prediction: NO BET — totals-discipline and DQS floor 7. Anytime HR Heriberto Hernández — 23.2% Juan Soto — 20.7% Kyle Stowers — 18.1% Owen Caissie — 17.5% J. Mack — 17.2% Francisco Lindor — 15.1% Francisco Álvarez — 11.7% Carson Benge — 10.1% Marcus Semien — 10.0% Bo Bichette — 8.7% J. Marsee — 8.3% Otto López — 7.9% J. Sanoja — 7.0% A.J. Ewing — N/A Jared Young — N/A Luis Torrens — N/A J. Serna — N/A Agustín Ramírez — N/A 8. RBIs Owen Caissie 1+ — 52.8% Heriberto Hernández 1+ — 49.4% Kyle Stowers 1+ — 47.1% J. Mack 1+ — 45.9% J. Sanoja 1+ — 41.8% Juan Soto 1+ — 41.7% Otto López 1+ — 39.6% Bo Bichette 1+ — 34.5% Francisco Lindor 1+ — 32.0% Carson Benge 1+ — 29.8% Marcus Semien 1+ — 27.9% Francisco Álvarez 1+ — 27.5% J. Marsee 1+ — 26.3% 9. Top 8 Player Stats Otto López — 1.34 projected H, 2.14 projected TB, 0.53 RBI, 0.66 R, HR 7.9%, BRI Yes Kyle Stowers — 1.05 projected H, 2.06 projected TB, 0.66 RBI, 0.53 R, HR 18.1%, BRI Yes Heriberto Hernández — 0.97 projected H, 2.00 projected TB, 0.70 RBI, 0.49 R, HR 23.2%, BRI Yes J. Sanoja — 1.19 projected H, 1.74 projected TB, 0.53 RBI, 0.38 R, HR 7.0%, BRI Yes Juan Soto — 0.90 projected H, 1.78 projected TB, 0.56 RBI, 0.51 R, HR 20.7%, BRI Yes Owen Caissie — 0.94 projected H, 1.75 projected TB, 0.76 RBI, 0.56 R, HR 17.5%, BRI Yes J. Mack — 0.97 projected H, 1.68 projected TB, 0.63 RBI, 0.51 R, HR 17.2%, BRI Yes Bo Bichette — 1.03 projected H, 1.52 projected TB, 0.43 RBI, 0.43 R, HR 8.7%, BRI Yes 10. Hits Otto López 1+ — 79.2% J. Sanoja 1+ — 71.9% Kyle Stowers 1+ — 68.3% Carson Benge 1+ — 66.4% Bo Bichette 1+ — 66.2% Heriberto Hernández 1+ — 64.6% J. Mack 1+ — 64.2% Juan Soto 1+ — 63.0% J. Marsee 1+ — 62.3% Owen Caissie 1+ — 62.3% Francisco Lindor 1+ — 59.8% Francisco Álvarez 1+ — 54.9% Marcus Semien 1+ — 54.4% Otto López 2+ — 40.0% J. Sanoja 2+ — 29.8% Kyle Stowers 2+ — 26.5% Carson Benge 2+ — 24.8% Bo Bichette 2+ — 24.9% 11. Strikeouts Eury Pérez O2.5 — 92.7% Eury Pérez O3.5 — 84.0% Eury Pérez O4.5 — 71.9% Eury Pérez O5.5 — 57.8% Eury Pérez O6.5 — 43.8% Expected Pérez K: 6.32 over approximately 5.5 IP Jonah Tong expected K — approximately 3.0 over 4.0 IP Tong detailed ladder — N/A due extreme low-sample uncertainty Cap note: Pérez O2.5 exceeds the 85% props cap. 12. Hits Allowed Eury Pérez expected hits allowed — approximately 4.7 over 5.5 IP Jonah Tong expected hits allowed — approximately 4.8 over 4.0 IP 13. Total Bases Otto López 2+ — 58.0% Kyle Stowers 2+ — 57.7% Heriberto Hernández 2+ — 56.3% Juan Soto 2+ — 50.3% Owen Caissie 2+ — 48.5% J. Sanoja 2+ — 48.5% J. Mack 2+ — 47.0% Francisco Lindor 2+ — 43.9% Carson Benge 2+ — 41.8% Bo Bichette 2+ — 41.0% J. Marsee 2+ — 40.8% Francisco Álvarez 2+ — 33.8% Marcus Semien 2+ — 30.7% 14. First Five Innings NYM lead — 34.1% MIA lead — 48.1% Tie — 17.8% F5 mean total — 4.65 NYM −1.5 F5 — 21.0% MIA −1.5 F5 — 33.9% NRFI — 57.7% YRFI — 42.3% NYM scores in 1st — 23.2% MIA scores in 1st — 25.9% Volatility factors: recall_sp active on Miami because §4.7 fires on Tong; BTM active on Miami due the starter-grade and bullpen gaps; Miami PCM capped at 1.10 by §4.7; Mets PCM inactive; HRCF inactive. — Player Breakout:

New York Mets: • Juan Soto — HR 20.7%, 2+ TB 50.3%, projected 0.56 RBI, BRI Yes • Carson Benge — 1+ hit 66.4%, projected 0.43 R, HR 10.1%, BRI Yes • Bo Bichette — 1+ hit 66.2%, projected 1.03 H, 2+ TB 41.0%, BRI Yes

Miami Marlins: • Otto López — 1+ hit 79.2%, projected 1.34 H, 2+ TB 58.0%, BRI Yes • Heriberto Hernández — HR 23.2%, projected 0.70 RBI, 2+ TB 56.3%, BRI Yes • Kyle Stowers — HR 18.1%, 2+ TB 57.7%, projected 0.66 RBI, BRI Yes — xHR BOOST INDEX

• New York Mets
• Boost: Not Active
• Targets: Juan Soto
• Reason: Opposite-handed exposure vs RHP Pérez is 55.6%, below the 60% PCM threshold. loanDepot’s 0.94 park factor suppresses power.
• Juan Soto — 20.7%
• Most likely HR: Juan Soto — 20.7%

• Miami Marlins • Boost: +12% • Targets: Heriberto Hernández, Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie • Reason: Tong’s 16% walk rate activates PCM, but §4.7 caps the multiplier at 1.10 because of his extremely small sample. • Heriberto Hernández — 23.2% • Kyle Stowers — 18.1% • Owen Caissie — 17.5% • Most likely HR: Heriberto Hernández — 23.2% — EDGE SUMMARY • MIA ML −116 — Model 58.5% vs fair 51.7% → VES +4.00; Small Edge; Quarter-Kelly 1.08u; 0.00u because DQS 59 < 70 • NYM ML −101 — Model 41.5% vs fair 48.3% → VES −4.00; No Edge; 0.00u • MIA +1.5 — Model 74.1%; fair probability N/A; VES N/A; 0.00u • NYM −1.5 — Model 25.9%; fair probability N/A; VES N/A; 0.00u • Total 7.5 — barred by totals-discipline; 0.00u • DQS: 59/100 • Final status: NO BET — DQS floor — INSIGHTS • Strengths: New York’s full season scoring and run-prevention figures are verified. Miami’s derived scoring baseline has two independent methods converging around the same level. Thirteen of eighteen hitter profiles are verified, and the moneyline is fully two-way priced. • Weaknesses: Both last-five windows are missing, weather and roof state are unavailable, run-line juice is unavailable, five hitter profiles are missing, Anchor A is unavailable, and Tong is extremely low-sample. • Winning edge: Miami projects 4.637 runs vs New York 3.596 before home field. • Home-field adjustment: +0.20 runs to Miami inside the simulation only. • Simulation means: NYM 3.60, MIA 4.84. • Pérez owns a 0.63 grade vs Tong’s adjusted 0.458. • Tong’s 16% walk rate is the most exploitable pitching trait in the matchup. • §4.7 caps Miami’s PCM at 1.10 even though §4.8’s walk-rate band would otherwise justify 1.15+. • Miami’s recall_sp and BTM volatility flags both activate. • The model’s 61.2% Miami simulation probability is 9.5 points above the market’s 51.7% fair probability. • That creates a +4.00 VES edge and a 1.08u quarter-Kelly stake before the DQS restriction. • DQS 59 blocks the bet because both recent five-game windows are unavailable. • The missing recent-form information is therefore directly responsible for passing the strongest model edge in three days. — SPORTSBOOK LIABILITIES: • Highest liability outcomes: • Miami moneyline win • Miami +1.5 • Miami win by 3+ • Heriberto Hernández HR • Eury Pérez high-strikeout game • Handle data: N/A — 99.99% Parlay: • Step 1 — High-confidence 5-leg parlay: • MIA ML — 61.2% • MIA +1.5 — 74.1% • Under 10.5 — probability N/A • NRFI — 57.7% • Otto López 1+ Hit — 79.2% • True correlated joint probability: 21.3% • Naive product: 13.6% • Correlation effect: +7.7 percentage points • Fair odds: approximately +368 • Recommendation status: N/A — contains totals-discipline-barred leg and DQS is below floor

• Step 2 — Same legs adjusted to 99% confidence: • Same legs retained. • True model joint remains 21.3%. • 99% confidence cannot be supported. • 99.99% confidence: N/A — Raw Prediction: • ML: MIA −116 — 58.5% blended / 61.2% simulation • ML: NYM −101 — 41.5% blended / 38.8% simulation • Spread: MIA +1.5 — 74.1% • Rank Top 5 Alt Spread: • MIA +2.5 — 82.7% • NYM +4.5 — 80.3% • MIA +1.5 — 74.1% • NYM +2.5 — 68.9% • NYM +1.5 — 55.7% • Rank Top 5 Alt Totals: • N/A — totals family barred • Strikeouts: • Pérez O2.5 — 92.7% • Pérez O3.5 — 84.0% • Pérez O4.5 — 71.9% • Pérez O5.5 — 57.8% • Tong expected — approximately 3.0 K • Hits: • López 1+ — 79.2% • Sanoja 1+ — 71.9% • Stowers 1+ — 68.3% • Benge 1+ — 66.4% • Bichette 1+ — 66.2% • Runs: • López 1+ — 48.6% • Home Run: • Hernández — 23.2% • Soto — 20.7% • Stowers — 18.1% • Caissie — 17.5% • Total Bases: • López 2+ — 58.0% • Stowers 2+ — 57.7% • Hernández 2+ — 56.3% • Soto 2+ — 50.3% • Hits Allowed: • Pérez expected — approximately 4.7 • Tong expected — approximately 4.8 • Hits+Runs+RBIs: • López 2+ — 71.2% • Other probabilities — N/A • NRFI/YRFI: • NRFI — 57.7% • YRFI — 42.3% • Final Score: • New York Mets 4 – Miami Marlins 5 • Total: • Model 8.43 • Simulation mean 8.47 • Blended 7.73 • Median 8.0 • Collapse Floor 3.0 • Chaos Ceiling 13.0 • DQS: 59/100 • Confidence: HIGH UNCERTAINTY • Betting status: NO BET

Recommendation & why • No qualifying bets. • Miami ML −116 is the strongest priced edge at +4.00 VES and would size to 1.08u quarter-Kelly, but DQS 59 blocks it. • The run line cannot be priced because juice was not retrieved. • The totals family is barred by totals-discipline. • This should be logged specifically as a DQS-blocked qualifying edge rather than as a game with no edge. • The missing recent five-game windows for both teams are the direct reason the otherwise qualifying Miami moneyline is passed.

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