Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees Prediction & Betting Pick

MLB American League Colorado Rockies (+266) vs New York Yankees (−331) September 10, 2026

Game Information: • Teams: Colorado Rockies (55-90) @ New York Yankees (83-62) • Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026 • Time: 7:05 PM ET • Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York • TV Coverage: YES / Rockies.TV / MLB.TV — Starting Pitchers:

Colorado Rockies: • Pitcher: Ryan Feltner, RHP — 5-9, 5.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 106.2 IP, 81 SO, 19 HR allowed • Insight: Published 2026 road ERA 5.54 versus 6.26 at Coors. Venue-splits adjustment +0.47 shows the naive Coors park correction would over-credit Feltner. His 19 HR in 106.2 IP equals 1.60 HR/9, creating elevated HR/contact volatility against a Yankees lineup with 66.7% opposite-handed exposure. Venue-adjusted RA9 5.43. • PVI: 0.30 †venue-adjusted

New York Yankees: • Pitcher: Max Fried, LHP — 4-4, 2.73 ERA • Insight: Park-neutral ERA 2.66. Has allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts. 2026 innings and WHIP were not retrieved, so uncertainty band widened. Projected RA9 3.02. • PVI: 0.78 †park-neutralised

Pitcher Command Quality (PCQ) • Ryan Feltner: Final Grade 0.32, PSI 0.36 †bounded • Max Fried: Final Grade 0.77, PSI 0.76 †bounded • PCQ Gap: 0.45 in favor of New York — Team Lineups

5th NL West Colorado Rockies (55-90) — PROJECTED •1: C. Norby 2B (.224/.329/.350, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 18 2B) •2: Z. Veen LF (.250/.333/.500) •3: M. Moniak DH (.248/.288/.496) •4: H. Goodman C (.249/.316/.532, 37 HR, 78 RBI) •5: T. Rumfield 1B (.299/.390/.459) •6: C. Carrigg CF (.264/.338/.448) •7: J. McCarthy LF (.293/.337/.482) •8: K. Karros 3B (.261/.357/.415) •9: B. Sullivan C (N/A)

Starting Pitcher: •Ryan Feltner (5.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 0.30 PVI)

Key Bench: •N/A

Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A •Bullpen Insight: Fresh. Only Mejia worked September 9, throwing 33 pitches. BAS −0.35; effective park-neutralised RA9 4.65.

1st AL East New York Yankees (83-62) — PROJECTED •1: B. Rice DH (.258/.355/.522, 36 HR, 88 RBI, 90 R) •2: A. Judge RF (.244/.370/.525, 17 HR, 38 RBI in 60 G) •3: C. Bellinger LF (.264/.343/.413, 12 HR, 62 RBI) •4: S. Jones RF (.243/.319/.441, 9 HR, 31 RBI) •5: J. Caballero SS (.235/.292/.372, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 31 SB) •6: L. García Jr. 1B (.296/.336/.481, 5 HR) •7: R. McMahon 3B (N/A — rates stale) •8: G. Lombard Jr. SS (.239/.301/.348) •9: A. Wells C (N/A — rates stale)

Starting Pitcher: •Max Fried (2.73 ERA, N/A WHIP, N/A K/9, 0.78 PVI)

Key Bench: •N/A

Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A •Bullpen Insight: Fresh. Schreiber 15 pitches, Fulmer 14, Blackburn 11 on September 9. BAS −0.30; effective RA9 3.35. — Previous Games:

Colorado Rockies (Last 5 Games: N/A — only 2 of 5 retrieved; Momentum Insight: recent suppression evident with four total runs across the first two games of this series, but the model’s minimum recent-form window was not satisfied)

MLB American League Colorado Rockies (+266) vs New York Yankees (−331) September 10, 2026

Game Information: • Teams: Colorado Rockies (55-90) @ New York Yankees (83-62) • Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026 • Time: 7:05 PM ET • Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York • TV Coverage: YES / Rockies.TV / MLB.TV — Starting Pitchers:

Colorado Rockies: • Pitcher: Ryan Feltner, RHP — 5-9, 5.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 106.2 IP, 81 SO, 19 HR allowed • Insight: Published 2026 road ERA 5.54 versus 6.26 at Coors. Venue-splits adjustment +0.47 shows the naive Coors park correction would over-credit Feltner. His 19 HR in 106.2 IP equals 1.60 HR/9, creating elevated HR/contact volatility against a Yankees lineup with 66.7% opposite-handed exposure. Venue-adjusted RA9 5.43. • PVI: 0.30 †venue-adjusted

New York Yankees: • Pitcher: Max Fried, LHP — 4-4, 2.73 ERA • Insight: Park-neutral ERA 2.66. Has allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts. 2026 innings and WHIP were not retrieved, so uncertainty band widened. Projected RA9 3.02. • PVI: 0.78 †park-neutralised

Pitcher Command Quality (PCQ) • Ryan Feltner: Final Grade 0.32, PSI 0.36 †bounded • Max Fried: Final Grade 0.77, PSI 0.76 †bounded • PCQ Gap: 0.45 in favor of New York — Team Lineups

5th NL West Colorado Rockies (55-90) — PROJECTED •1: C. Norby 2B (.224/.329/.350, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 18 2B) •2: Z. Veen LF (.250/.333/.500) •3: M. Moniak DH (.248/.288/.496) •4: H. Goodman C (.249/.316/.532, 37 HR, 78 RBI) •5: T. Rumfield 1B (.299/.390/.459) •6: C. Carrigg CF (.264/.338/.448) •7: J. McCarthy LF (.293/.337/.482) •8: K. Karros 3B (.261/.357/.415) •9: B. Sullivan C (N/A)

Starting Pitcher: •Ryan Feltner (5.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 0.30 PVI)

Key Bench: •N/A

Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A •Bullpen Insight: Fresh. Only Mejia worked September 9, throwing 33 pitches. BAS −0.35; effective park-neutralised RA9 4.65.

1st AL East New York Yankees (83-62) — PROJECTED •1: B. Rice DH (.258/.355/.522, 36 HR, 88 RBI, 90 R) •2: A. Judge RF (.244/.370/.525, 17 HR, 38 RBI in 60 G) •3: C. Bellinger LF (.264/.343/.413, 12 HR, 62 RBI) •4: S. Jones RF (.243/.319/.441, 9 HR, 31 RBI) •5: J. Caballero SS (.235/.292/.372, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 31 SB) •6: L. García Jr. 1B (.296/.336/.481, 5 HR) •7: R. McMahon 3B (N/A — rates stale) •8: G. Lombard Jr. SS (.239/.301/.348) •9: A. Wells C (N/A — rates stale)

Starting Pitcher: •Max Fried (2.73 ERA, N/A WHIP, N/A K/9, 0.78 PVI)

Key Bench: •N/A

Bullpen Core: •Closer: N/A •Setup: N/A •Bullpen Insight: Fresh. Schreiber 15 pitches, Fulmer 14, Blackburn 11 on September 9. BAS −0.30; effective RA9 3.35. — Previous Games:

Colorado Rockies (Last 5 Games: N/A — only 2 of 5 retrieved; Momentum Insight: recent suppression evident with four total runs across the first two games of this series, but the model’s minimum recent-form window was not satisfied)

• L 9/8: Loss vs New York Yankees 3-5, 3+5=8 total
• L 9/9: Loss vs New York Yankees 1-6, 1+6=7 total
• N/A
• N/A
• N/A

New York Yankees (Last 5 Games: N/A — only 2 of 5 retrieved; Momentum Insight: consecutive wins with 11 runs scored and four allowed, but the model’s minimum recent-form window was not satisfied)

• W 9/8: Win vs Colorado Rockies 5-3, 5+3=8 total
• W 9/9: Win vs Colorado Rockies 6-1, 6+1=7 total
• N/A
• N/A
• N/A

⸻ TEAM PLAYING AT HOME: New York Yankees Yes (Home field applied as +0.20 runs inside simulation; no separate 5% win-probability increase applied) — Player News:

Colorado Rockies: • Key Player: Hunter Goodman has 37 HR and 78 RBI with a .532 SLG and remains Colorado’s primary power threat. • Injury/Update: Rotation is depleted. • Injuries: Chase Dollander (IL), José Quintana (IL), Kyle Freeland (IL)

New York Yankees: • Key Player: Ben Rice is 9-for-23 (.391) in September and leads the team with 36 HR, 88 RBI and 90 runs. Aaron Judge returned September 8. • Injury/Update: Judge has appeared in only 60 games but carries a .525 SLG and 17 HR. George Lombard Jr. drove in four runs with a homer September 9. • Injuries: N/A — Weather • Conditions: N/A — weather not retrieved; Yankee Stadium is open-air • Wind: N/A • Game impact: WPF 1.000 used as an admission rather than a measured weather adjustment. Wind uncertainty is material because of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field dimensions. — Predictions

1. Team to Win New York Yankees — 72.0% reported win probability; raw blended probability 74.6%, Monte Carlo 75.9%. New York owns the substantial SP advantage, bullpen advantage, handedness advantage, home field and the stronger projected scoring environment. Model and market are closely aligned.

1.a Moneyline Surprise Index (MSI): • No Moneyline Surprise projected – model and market align.

1b. Monte Carlo Simulation • 50,000 simulations, seed 2026091002 • New York Yankees win: 75.9% • Colorado Rockies win: 24.1% • Extra innings: 9.6% • NYY by 1: 14.5% • NYY by 2: 12.2% • NYY by 3+: 49.2% • COL by 1: 9.0% • COL by 2: 5.6% • COL by 3+: 9.5% • One-run games: 23.5% • Most common margin: Yankees by 1 • Most common scores: COL 1-NYY 2 (2.9%), COL 2-NYY 3 (2.8%), COL 1-NYY 3 (2.6%) • HRCF: Active for New York • BTM: Active for New York • PCM: Active for New York at 1.080 • NYY projected variance: ×1.24 • DQS: 52/100 — HIGH UNCERTAINTY / NO BET

2. Final Score Colorado Rockies 3.04 – New York Yankees 5.87 Total: 8.91 simulated mean; 8.94 model total

Run Distribution: • Colorado Rockies: 20th–80th percentile 1–5 runs • New York Yankees: 20th–80th percentile 3–9 runs • Collapse Floor 15th percentile total: 4.0 • Median total: 8.0 • Chaos Ceiling 85th percentile total: 14.0

2a. Spread • Prediction: New York Yankees −1.5 — 61.4% • Avg margin: approximately NYY +2.83 runs from projected score • Rank top 5 Spread: • NYY +1.5 — 84.9% • NYY +0.5 — 75.9% • NYY −1.5 — 61.4% • COL +3.5 — 63.4% • COL +2.5 — 51.8%

3. Over/Under Posted Total: 8.5 Over 8.5: 47.0% Under 8.5: 53.0% Model Total: 8.94 Market Total: 8.5 Blended Total: 8.61 Prediction: NO BET — totals-discipline restriction plus DQS 52 4. Anytime HR Aaron Judge 1+ HR — 32.2% Ben Rice 1+ HR — 30.9% Luis García Jr. 1+ HR — 20.7% Spencer Jones 1+ HR — 20.1% Hunter Goodman 1+ HR — 16.5% José Caballero 1+ HR — 16.0% Mickey Moniak 1+ HR — 14.9% † Cody Bellinger 1+ HR — 12.9% Zac Veen 1+ HR — 12.1% † George Lombard Jr. 1+ HR — 9.5% 5. RBIs Ben Rice 1+ RBI — 56.1% Aaron Judge 1+ RBI — 54.6% Spencer Jones 1+ RBI — 51.0% Cody Bellinger 1+ RBI — 48.5% José Caballero 1+ RBI — 44.3% Luis García Jr. 1+ RBI — 40.2% Mickey Moniak 1+ RBI — 33.7% † Zac Veen 1+ RBI — 33.1% † 6. Top 8 Player Stats Ben Rice — 1.41 H, 3.03 TB, 0.85 RBI, 0.87 R, 30.9% HR; BRI: N/A Luis García Jr. — 1.63 H, 2.65 TB, 0.55 RBI, 0.63 R, 20.7% HR; BRI: N/A Aaron Judge — 1.24 H, 2.79 TB, 0.82 RBI, 0.92 R, 32.2% HR; BRI: N/A Cody Bellinger — 1.40 H, 2.24 TB, 0.71 RBI, 0.73 R, 12.9% HR; BRI: N/A Spencer Jones — 1.25 H, 2.36 TB, 0.74 RBI, 0.70 R, 20.1% HR; BRI: N/A José Caballero — 1.23 H, 1.99 TB, 0.61 RBI, 0.59 R, 16.0% HR; BRI: N/A Hunter Goodman — 0.68 H, 1.14 TB, 0.35 RBI, 0.31 R, 16.5% HR; BRI: N/A Jake McCarthy — 0.76 H, 1.03 TB, 0.29 RBI, 0.30 R, 8.2% HR †; BRI: N/A 7. Hits Luis García Jr. 1+ — 80.3%; 2+ — 40.9% Ben Rice 1+ — 75.5%; 2+ — 35.3% Cody Bellinger 1+ — 75.3%; 2+ — 34.7% Spencer Jones 1+ — 71.9%; 2+ — 30.4% José Caballero 1+ — 71.4%; 2+ — 29.6% Aaron Judge 1+ — 70.6%; 2+ — 29.4% George Lombard Jr. 1+ — 68.5%; 2+ — 26.3% Jake McCarthy 1+ — 55.8% †; 2+ — 15.9% † 8. Strikeouts Max Fried Over 2.5 K — ~94% † Max Fried Over 4.5 K — ~80% † Max Fried Over 5.5 K — ~66% † Max Fried Over 7.5 K — ~35% † Max Fried projected strikeouts: ~6.6 † Ryan Feltner projected strikeouts: ~3.6 Ryan Feltner K-rate: .165 measured, 6.8 K/9 Fried K-rate is assumed because his 2026 strikeout total was not retrieved. 9. Hits Allowed Max Fried — ~4.7 hits allowed over projected 6.2 IP † Ryan Feltner — ~6.1 hits allowed over projected 4.8 IP † 10. Total Bases Ben Rice 2+ TB — 72.1% Aaron Judge 2+ TB — 68.9% Luis García Jr. 2+ TB — 65.6% Spencer Jones 2+ TB — 61.1% Cody Bellinger 2+ TB — 57.8% José Caballero 2+ TB — 52.8% George Lombard Jr. 2+ TB — 44.4% Hunter Goodman 2+ TB — 39.6% 11. First Five Innings Colorado lead — 24.1% New York lead — 60.0% Tie — 15.8% F5 mean total — 4.94 F5 COL −1.5 — 14.1% F5 NYY −1.5 — 45.0% NRFI — 55.1% YRFI — 44.9% Colorado scores 1st inning — 20.4% New York scores 1st inning — 31.8% Volatility Factors: NYY PCM active, HRCF active, BTM active; variance ×1.24

Player Breakout:

Colorado Rockies: • Hunter Goodman — 0.68 H, 1.14 TB, 0.35 RBI, 16.5% HR, BRI N/A • Jake McCarthy — 0.76 H, 1.03 TB, 0.29 RBI, 55.8% 1+ Hit †, BRI N/A • TJ Rumfield — 55.4% 1+ Hit, 30.1% 2+ TB †, BRI N/A

New York Yankees: • Ben Rice — 1.41 H, 3.03 TB, 0.85 RBI, 30.9% HR, BRI N/A • Aaron Judge — 1.24 H, 2.79 TB, 0.82 RBI, 32.2% HR, BRI N/A • Luis García Jr. — 1.63 H, 2.65 TB, 0.55 RBI, 80.3% 1+ Hit, BRI N/A — xHR BOOST INDEX

• New York Yankees — Boost: +8% PCM + HRCF; Targets: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Luis García Jr., Spencer Jones; Reason: 66.7% opposite-hand exposure against Ryan Feltner plus Feltner’s 1.60 HR/9 and NYY ≥1.297 HR/G lower-bound rate; 32.2% / 30.9% / 20.7% / 20.1% • Colorado Rockies — Boost: 0%; Targets: Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak; Reason: PCM inactive at 44.4% opposite-hand exposure against Max Fried; 16.5% / 14.9% † • Most likely HR: Aaron Judge — 32.2%, driven by .525 SLG, Feltner’s 1.60 HR/9, Yankee Stadium environment and active HRCF. — EDGE SUMMARY

• NYY ML −331 — Model 72.0% capped, raw blend 74.6%; de-vigged market 73.8%; VES +0.40; No Edge; 0.00u • COL ML +266 — Model 28.0%; de-vigged market 26.2%; VES −0.40; No Edge; 0.00u • NYY −1.5 — 61.4%; run-line juice N/A; VES N/A; 0.00u • Total 8.5 — Over 47.0%, Under 53.0%; juice N/A; totals market barred; 0.00u • DQS 52/100 → NO BET • MSI does not trigger. Model and market align. — INSIGHTS • Strengths: New York owns a 0.45 starting-pitcher grade advantage, better effective bullpen RA9, 66.7% opposite-hand exposure, active PCM, active HRCF and active BTM. • Weaknesses: Both recent-form windows failed the minimum data floor; weather, umpire, catcher framing, line movement and market juice are missing. Fried’s 2026 WHIP/IP/K total were unavailable. • Winning edge: New York’s offense projects for 5.686 runs before home-field application versus Colorado’s 3.058. Feltner’s venue-adjusted road profile remains poor at 5.54 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 1.60 HR/9. • DQS: 52/100 — HIGH UNCERTAINTY. • Model/market alignment: Raw blended NYY 74.6% versus de-vigged market 73.8%. — SPORTSBOOK LIABILITIES: • Highest liability outcomes: N/A — betting splits and handle were not published. • NYY −331 / COL +266 market hold: 4.12% • Most consequential model outcome: NYY win by 3+ at 49.2% • NYY +1.5 occurs in 84.9% of simulations. • Aaron Judge HR 32.2% and Ben Rice HR 30.9% represent the largest individual HR tails. • Run-line juice: N/A • Total juice: N/A • Line movement: N/A — 99.99% Parlay:

• No legitimate 99.99% five-leg parlay exists in the modeled distribution.

• Maximum-confidence 5-leg build:
• NYY +1.5 — 84.9%
• Under 15.5 — ~88%
• Luis García Jr. 1+ Hit — 80.3%
• Ben Rice 1+ Hit — 75.5%
• Cody Bellinger 1+ Hit — 75.3%
• True correlated joint: 39.6%
• Fair odds: +153
• Naive product: 37.5%
• Correlation effect: +2.1 points

• Same legs adjusted to 99% confidence: N/A — these five legs cannot mathematically be adjusted to a truthful 99% joint probability from the supplied simulation.

• Standard high-confidence 5-leg:
• NYY ML — 75.9% simulation
• NYY −1.5 — 61.4%
• Under 11.5 — N/A individual probability
• NRFI — 55.1%
• Aaron Judge 1+ Hit — 70.6%
• True correlated joint: 19.6%
• Fair odds: +410
• Naive product: 14.3%
• Correlation effect: +5.4 points

• Conservative 3-leg:
• NYY +1.5 — 84.9%
• Under 13.5 — N/A individual probability
• Luis García Jr. 1+ Hit — 80.3%
• True correlated joint: 58.9%
• Fair odds: −143
• Naive product: 58.2%
• Correlation effect: +0.7 points

• Recommendation: None. DQS 52 bars all staking, while totals legs are separately barred. — Raw Prediction:

• ML: NYY −331 — 72.0% capped; raw blend 74.6%; simulation 75.9%
• ML: COL +266 — 28.0%; simulation 24.1%
• Spread: NYY −1.5 — 61.4%
• Spread: COL +1.5 — 38.6%

• Rank Top 5 Alt Spread:
• NYY +1.5 — 84.9%
• NYY +0.5 — 75.9%
• COL +3.5 — 63.4%
• COL +2.5 — 51.8%
• NYY −2.5 — 48.2%

• Rank Top 5 Alt Totals:
• Under 15.5 — ~88%
• Under 13.5 — N/A
• Under 11.5 — N/A
• Under 8.5 — 53.0%
• Over 8.5 — 47.0%

• Strikeouts: Max Fried Over 2.5 — ~94% †
• Strikeouts: Max Fried Over 4.5 — ~80% †
• Strikeouts: Max Fried Over 5.5 — ~66% †
• Strikeouts: Ryan Feltner projected — ~3.6 K

• Hits: Luis García Jr. 1+ — 80.3%
• Hits: Ben Rice 1+ — 75.5%
• Hits: Cody Bellinger 1+ — 75.3%
• Hits: Spencer Jones 1+ — 71.9%
• Hits: José Caballero 1+ — 71.4%

• Runs: Aaron Judge 1+ — 59.1%

• Home Run: Aaron Judge — 32.2%
• Home Run: Ben Rice — 30.9%
• Home Run: Luis García Jr. — 20.7%
• Home Run: Spencer Jones — 20.1%
• Home Run: Hunter Goodman — 16.5%

• Total Bases: Ben Rice 2+ — 72.1%
• Total Bases: Aaron Judge 2+ — 68.9%
• Total Bases: Luis García Jr. 2+ — 65.6%
• Total Bases: Spencer Jones 2+ — 61.1%
• Total Bases: Cody Bellinger 2+ — 57.8%

• Hits Allowed: Max Fried — ~4.7 †
• Hits Allowed: Ryan Feltner — ~6.1 †

• Hits+Runs+RBIs: Ben Rice 2+ — 78.7%

• NRFI — 55.1%
• YRFI — 44.9%

• 80%+ confidence outputs:
• Fried Over 2.5 K — ~94% †
• NYY +1.5 — 84.9%
• Luis García Jr. 1+ Hit — 80.3%
• Fried Over 4.5 K — ~80% †

Recommendation & why • No qualifying bets. DQS 52 is below the 70 staking floor. • NYY ML offers essentially no model-versus-market advantage: +0.40 VES. • Run-line and totals juice are unavailable, preventing valid pricing. • Totals are independently barred by totals-discipline. • The strongest raw probabilities are informational projections only, not recommended wagers.

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